Winter 2016-2017 Medium/Long Range Discussion

[Powerball]

18z GFS almost went for the Big Kahuna at the beginning of January...

[RogueWaves]

3 minutes ago, Powerball said:

18z GFS almost went for the Big Kahuna at the beginning of January...

Nice to hear, see my post above - lol.  And, I know coming from you it's legit! Somebody on the other board was saying a triple-phase was one posible scenario iirc. I do like the gradient setting up though as we get into January. 

[Powerball]

5 minutes ago, RogueWaves said:

Nice to hear, see my post above - lol.  And, I know coming from you it's legit! Somebody on the other board was saying a triple-phase was one posible scenario iirc. I do like the gradient setting up though as we get into January. 

One thing we have going for us too this time (unlike with the 2014 PV) is an active STJ.

So that should really help the bottom to fall out on this one if all of the ingredients come together at once.

[RogueWaves]

38 minutes ago, Powerball said:

One thing we have going for us too this time (unlike with the 2014 PV) is an active STJ.

So that should really help the bottom to fall out on this one if all of the ingredients come together at once.

Yeah, that ever ellusive STJ. It sure would be nice to find that again at the right timing as you said. 

[snowlover2]

Early January still looking interesting for a nice storm.

[Roon]

Northern MN gets buried on the 2nd/3rd of January on the 12z GFS.

 

[Jonger]

Damn.

This is the danger of a SE ridge. 

[Baum]

This board sure died in a hurry. Triple phaser for Pelican Lake....Minnesota.

[cyclone77]

3 minutes ago, Baum said:

This board sure died in a hurry. Triple phaser for Pelican Lake....Minnesota.

Jan will be rockin'.

[Hoosier]

Looks like it will be a while with bare ground.  Several days anyway.  I think we'll have a crack at something in the first week of January as the cold dump spills into the US.  Hopefully it works out.

[ConvectiveIA]

7 minutes ago, cyclone77 said:

Jan will be rockin'.

I'm seeing that the large-scale pattern for the long term into Jan definitely looks acceptable for south-central Iowa, Though once we are into winter (versus early Oct looking toward winter), or unless I'm living in Los Angeles begging for a winter rain event, I don't start getting too excited or scouring model runs until advertised systems become tangible enough to be within the reach of NWS forecast periods.

I used to live in Los Angeles and during those years winter rain events were sparse.

[Roon]

So after models had been trending toward more moisture and a deeper low with the 1/2/17 storm the 12z GFS comes in with a very weak system.

 

Fun stuff.

[HillsdaleMIWeather]

0Z GFS has the 3rd-4th storm back with a vengeance. Illinois and extreme western MI gets slammed

[snowlover2]

9 minutes ago, HillsdaleMIWeather said:

0Z GFS has the 3rd-4th storm back with a vengeance. Illinois and extreme western MI gets slammed

Northern half of IL to be exact but also northern MO and southern IA get decent snow too.

[andyhb]

Would be better if that lead southern stream wave didn't drop a front into the Gulf to truncate moisture return.

[andyhb]

How the interaction between the jet streak approaching from the Pacific NW (via the ridging into Alaska) and that aforementioned southern stream wave occurs is vital to this whole thing. If that southern wave is faster ala the 00z GFS, it may offer the opportunity for the trough that amplifies via that second jet streak to amplify more, although you'd want the lead wave to cut north at some point if you want max potential via good moisture advection.

If the southern wave is slower ala the 00z UK, you probably get a situation where that incoming jet partially phases with it and tends to kick out eastward (and further north), offering less chance of a bigger scenario.

However, I do wonder if there's a chance that the southern stream wave more fully phases with the jet than the UK is showing and you get a more explosive solution that way.

Bottom line, a ton of moving parts and also the cutoff out in the Pacific is probably going to make this a relatively last minute forecast.

[IWXwx]

On 12/24/2016 at 11:53 PM, Hoosier said:

Wow, direct PV plunge into the northern Plains just beyond day 10 on the GFS. 

 

[Jim Martin]

Well... this would be interesting to start 2017...

[hawkeye_wx]

12z GFS hangs the main energy back a little more in the west, which ultimately leads to a more strung-out, weaker scenario compared to the previous couple runs.

[vortex]

Might be because I don't pay attention to CPC much, but that is bluest I've seen in awhile.  Hopefully we get the storm ahead of the cold.  

[Hoosier]

22 minutes ago, vortex said:

Might be because I don't pay attention to CPC much, but that is bluest I've seen in awhile.  Hopefully we get the storm ahead of the cold.  

One of their 6-10 day maps last month had no red on the map whatsoever, which was the first time that had happened in a few years. I'm not sure if that map had as much "deep" blue though.

[cyclone77]

Looks like arctic air over brown grass for much of the sub.  Don't see much of anything in the next 10 days other than the Monday rainer.

[RCNYILWX]

Looks like arctic air over brown grass for much of the sub.  Don't see much of anything in the next 10 days other than the Monday rainer.

You very well could be right but I wouldn't rule out events materializing that are not currently in evidence on the operational and ensemble guidance. The GFS has had a few recent runs with a more robust system early next week. Also can't rule out low amplitude clipper type waves forming.

Part of the equation is having a steady cold air supply and we'll have that, so let the chips fall where they may. Having a -PNA with the -EPO I think increases chances of the pattern managing to be active even if it doesn't appear that it will be at this vantage point. It would be nice if there were some potential threats well out in the medium and long range, but again doesn't mean there won't be any when we get into closer range.

I seem to recall a few Alek zzzzz posts in the 2013-14 winter prior to what turned out to be very active periods. Certainly hoping things don't end up the way you fear they will, because Arctic air over bare ground is the worst.

[Harry Perry]

35 minutes ago, RCNYILWX said:

 

You very well could be right but I wouldn't rule out events materializing that are not currently in evidence on the operational and ensemble guidance. The GFS has had a few recent runs with a more robust system early next week. Also can't rule out low amplitude clipper type waves forming.

Part of the equation is having a steady cold air supply and we'll have that, so let the chips fall where they may. Having a -PNA with the -EPO I think increases chances of the pattern managing to be active even if it doesn't appear that it will be at this vantage point. It would be nice if there were some potential threats well out in the medium and long range, but again doesn't mean there won't be any when we get into closer range.

I seem to recall a few Alek zzzzz posts in the 2013-14 winter prior to what turned out to be very active periods. Certainly hoping things don't end up the way you fear they will, because Arctic air over bare ground is the worst.

 

X2, nothing worse than arctic air over brown ground.

[Jonger]

1 hour ago, Harry Perry said:

X2, nothing worse than arctic air over brown ground.

Models show a long Lake event, but that's not going to help out too many of us.

[michsnowfreak]

Arctic air over bare ground happens, but not that often in the Lower Lakes. Usually something materializes. We hear this worry every year....hope it won't come true. It's a shame the snow melted in the first place.

[ConvectiveIA]

3 hours ago, RCNYILWX said:

 

You very well could be right but I wouldn't rule out events materializing that are not currently in evidence on the operational and ensemble guidance. The GFS has had a few recent runs with a more robust system early next week. Also can't rule out low amplitude clipper type waves forming.

Part of the equation is having a steady cold air supply and we'll have that, so let the chips fall where they may. Having a -PNA with the -EPO I think increases chances of the pattern managing to be active even if it doesn't appear that it will be at this vantage point. It would be nice if there were some potential threats well out in the medium and long range, but again doesn't mean there won't be any when we get into closer range.

I seem to recall a few Alek zzzzz posts in the 2013-14 winter prior to what turned out to be very active periods. Certainly hoping things don't end up the way you fear they will, because Arctic air over bare ground is the worst.

Maybe at least my location would have a little bit of better luck with this type of setup than, say, central MN. IDK

[Snowstorms]

Ideal track on the 0z GFS with the Jan 2-4 storm, but lack of arctic air and the strong SE ridge means another washout for much of the sub-forum. How exciting (not)! 

Edit: CMC too. 

 

 

 

 

[Younar]

0z euro from last night crushes MN and far northern WI into the UP with the Jan 2-4 storm although it is on its own in the intensity department so I'm not putting much faith in it. Pretty classic Colorado low which weenies dream about up here. I'll savor the run until the 12z dashes hopes. 0z also gives the southern reaches of the sub some decent snow towards the end of the run. 

[buckeye]

1 hour ago, Younar said:

0z euro from last night crushes MN and far northern WI into the UP with the Jan 2-4 storm although it is on its own in the intensity department so I'm not putting much faith in it. Pretty classic Colorado low which weenies dream about up here. I'll savor the run until the 12z dashes hopes. 0z also gives the southern reaches of the sub some decent snow towards the end of the run. 

OP looked good with bringing a widespread moderate over running event to most of the sub.   Unfortunately the eps has a very strong signal for a wiff to the south for most of us north of KY (wrt that potential event).   Not just the eps but the ggem and the gfs.   Good news is it's still 9-10 days out in fantasy land with plenty of things that have to happen in front of it first.