Winter 2016-2017 Medium/Long Range Discussion

[michsnowfreak]

19 minutes ago, Jackstraw said:

I know the snow depth maps suck but this is ridiculous if it were to come to fruition.

 

 

There is no way that comes to fruition. Where do you get snow depth maps on tropical tidbits? Never saw them.

[Jackstraw]

12 minutes ago, michsnowfreak said:

There is no way that comes to fruition. Where do you get snow depth maps on tropical tidbits? Never saw them.

I know they're clown maps.  Got them from Pivotal Weather  

[michsnowfreak]

1 hour ago, Jackstraw said:

I know they're clown maps.  Got them from Pivotal Weather  

Thanks. Oops I was thinking tropical tidbits lol

[DAFF]

Things look to improve a tad come the end of the month...

[Hoosier]

Yeah, this looks to be just a temporary break.  Once we get out of it, the overall pattern/storm tracks should still favor this region more than the east coast for a while.

[Stebo]

Just keep the PNA where it is else the east coast gets storms instead of us.

[blizzardof96]

The afternoon GEFS has a nice look for our region.

[Jrad08]

Still a lot to be resolved for the storm on the 28th. I think the first storm out in front on Christmas is throwing any model concensus to the wind. Temps ranging 40 degrees either direction and a track variance of hundreds and hundreds of miles for the second storm...

[DAFF]

4 hours ago, Stebo said:

Just keep the PNA where it is else the east coast gets storms instead of us.

Does the PNA trump the NAO then?? I always thought east coast storms were -NAO driven...

 

[Stebo]

11 minutes ago, DAFF said:

Does the PNA trump the NAO then?? I always thought east coast storms were -NAO driven...

 

Their storms are -NAO driven but when the PNA is that strongly negative anything south of NYC would be out of the game. Sure with -NAO blocking you can have a storm reform and move up the coast of New England but you don't get massive coast riding Nor'easters with a strong -PNA.

[Indystorm]

LOT talking about t storms, one inch pwats, possible river flooding due to ice jam break up for Christmas...temps in low 50's....St. Louis wondering if a 60 degree high might be too conservative

[Jonger]

Long range shows a cold January on tap.

[slimjim101]

Even with the warm up and rain that is coming December 2016 will end up for most of our area colder and snowier than average. As of yesterday, Grand Rapids is now -5.1° for the month. And there has been 34.5” of recorded snow fall the warmest it has been so far is 40° on the 1^st (it should get warmer than that Sunday or Monday) and the coldest has been +4 on the 15^th This will be the first below average temperature month since April. Over at Muskegon the lake has kept them warmer and their departure is only at -2.4° and they have only recorded 17.7” of snow so far and that is still below average for December! (so not all areas are running above average snow fall wise) The warmest there (so far) this month has been 44° on the 1^st and again on the 5^th and the coldest there has been +10° on the 15^th To our east Lansing is now -4.1° and they have recorded 16” of snow so far and the warmest there was 42° on the 1^st and again on the 6^th the coldest there has been +3 on the 15^th

As I have stated before at Grand Rapids in the past most (but not all) winters that have a cold and snowy December.  For that winter December ends up being the snowiest month of the winter. We shall see if 2016/17 follows that trend.

 

[RogueWaves]

18 minutes ago, slimjim101 said:

Even with the warm up and rain that is coming December 2016 will end up for most of our area colder and snowier than average. As of yesterday, Grand Rapids is now -5.1° for the month. And there has been 34.5” of recorded snow fall the warmest it has been so far is 40° on the 1^st (it should get warmer than that Sunday or Monday) and the coldest has been +4 on the 15^th This will be the first below average temperature month since April. Over at Muskegon the lake has kept them warmer and their departure is only at -2.4° and they have only recorded 17.7” of snow so far and that is still below average for December! (so not all areas are running above average snow fall wise) The warmest there (so far) this month has been 44° on the 1^st and again on the 5^th and the coldest there has been +10° on the 15^th To our east Lansing is now -4.1° and they have recorded 16” of snow so far and the warmest there was 42° on the 1^st and again on the 6^th the coldest there has been +3 on the 15^th

 

As I have stated before at Grand Rapids in the past most (but not all) winters that have a cold and snowy December.  For that winter December ends up being the snowiest month of the winter. We shall see if 2016/17 follows that trend.

 

 

How was Dec 2013 for GR? And which winters that featured a "snowy" December went on to also be snowy the rest of the winter? I had a great Dec 2013, and then more than doubled that during January. Some have said this season has a pretty strong analog to that season just 3 yrs ago. Hoping this doesn't go like 89-90, or 00-01, two very December focused winters for SMI.

[snowlover2]

Could be a storm to watch around New Years Day.

[Jrad08]

Long range pattern looks like it may flip to favor some storms in the form of snow for us Ohio folks. I think buckeye mentioned this a few days ago. The New Years storm has started to show up consistently on the models now too...

[slimjim101]

8 hours ago, RogueWaves said:

How was Dec 2013 for GR? And which winters that featured a "snowy" December went on to also be snowy the rest of the winter? I had a great Dec 2013, and then more than doubled that during January. Some have said this season has a pretty strong analog to that season just 3 yrs ago. Hoping this doesn't go like 89-90, or 00-01, two very December focused winters for SMI.

 here is a list of years that December was the snowiest month of the winter. Most of the years had snow falls 

1903/04,1909/10,1916/17,1944/45,1950/51,1951/52, 1983/84,1985/86,1989/90,2000/01,2008/09, and 2009/10.   The years that had rather snowy December’s that were not the snowiest month of the winter are 1929/30, 1958/59, 1968/69 and 2013/14 

 Here is a list of the above winters and the December snow fall and the total snow fall at Grand Rapids that winter. For the winters that December had the most snow fall.

1903/40 December 22.1" winter 77.8"

1909/10 December 25.2" winter 4404"

1916/17 December 23.1" winter 52.2"

1944/45 December 21.9" winter 53.0"

1950/51 December 24.0" winter 81.5"

1951/52 December 51.3 winter 132.0"

1983/84 December 34.8" winter 71.8"

1985/86 December 30.7" winter 79.4"

1989/90 December 25.2" winter 89.8"

2000/01 December 59.2" winter 98.1"

2001/02 December 54.6" winter 105.9"

2008/09 December 54.6" winter 104.9"

2009/10 December 35.6" winter 72.2"

and for the winters where January ended up being the snowiest month after a snowy December

1929/30 December 29.7" January 37.3" winter 956"

1958/59 December 26.6" January 32.6" winter 104.7"

1968/69 December 26.2" January 27.7" winter 72.3"

2013/14 December 34.7" January 41.9" winter 116.0"

2016/17 December to date 34.5" winter ?????

[DAFF]

12 hours ago, slimjim101 said:

 here is a list of years that December was the snowiest month of the winter. Most of the years had snow falls 

1903/04,1909/10,1916/17,1944/45,1950/51,1951/52, 1983/84,1985/86,1989/90,2000/01,2008/09, and 2009/10.   The years that had rather snowy December’s that were not the snowiest month of the winter are 1929/30, 1958/59, 1968/69 and 2013/14 

 

 

 Here is a list of the above winters and the December snow fall and the total snow fall at Grand Rapids that winter. For the winters that December had the most snow fall.

1903/40 December 22.1" winter 77.8"

1909/10 December 25.2" winter 4404"

1916/17 December 23.1" winter 52.2"

1944/45 December 21.9" winter 53.0"

1950/51 December 24.0" winter 81.5"

1951/52 December 51.3 winter 132.0"

1983/84 December 34.8" winter 71.8"

1985/86 December 30.7" winter 79.4"

1989/90 December 25.2" winter 89.8"

2000/01 December 59.2" winter 98.1"

2001/02 December 54.6" winter 105.9"

2008/09 December 54.6" winter 104.9"

2009/10 December 35.6" winter 72.2"

and for the winters where January ended up being the snowiest month after a snowy December

1929/30 December 29.7" January 37.3" winter 956"

1958/59 December 26.6" January 32.6" winter 104.7"

1968/69 December 26.2" January 27.7" winter 72.3"

2013/14 December 34.7" January 41.9" winter 116.0"

2016/17 December to date 34.5" winter ?????

I could see how the LES fetch off of Lake Michigan could really steer the Dec snow totals into the pattern depicted here.

[Powerball]

Everyone's definitely going to need to pack their patience for the next 10 days or so. It's looking fairly "meh" in terms of aaction.

That said, the first week of January is some showing promise (as far as the ingredients for a big time phase). It's just, like always, getting all of the stars to align at once.

[Hoosier]

Wow, direct PV plunge into the northern Plains just beyond day 10 on the GFS. 

[RCNYILWX]

Wow, direct PV plunge into the northern Plains just beyond day 10 on the GFS. 

Strong ensemble support for a big time
-EPO developing and locking in.

[michsnowfreak]

9 hours ago, RCNYILWX said:

 

Strong ensemble support for a big time
-EPO developing and locking in.

So winters hiatus may be very brief?

[OHweather]

I could see the cold initially going into the NW around the turn of the year...but a -EPO correlates pretty strongly to cold across the Midwest/Lakes and at least somewhat over the OV...and this upcoming -EPO could be fairly stout and long lasting. The region will get cold and quite possibly very cold at times. Snow is less certain...maybe brief relaxations open the door for a bigger event...will also have to watch the transition to colder period during the first week of January. No slam dunk threats other than probably clippers and some LES, but we should at least have cold to play with if the pattern doesn't become too suppressed for us. 

[Stebo]

The one thing that could still help the region with respect to snow is the PNA looks to remain very negative as well. This will leave a southeast ridge in place, we very well could end up with a strong gradient pattern then, which the GFS has been hinting at after day 10.

[michsnowfreak]

53 minutes ago, OHweather said:

I could see the cold initially going into the NW around the turn of the year...but a -EPO correlates pretty strongly to cold across the Midwest/Lakes and at least somewhat over the OV...and this upcoming -EPO could be fairly stout and long lasting. The region will get cold and quite possibly very cold at times. Snow is less certain...maybe brief relaxations open the door for a bigger event...will also have to watch the transition to colder period during the first week of January. No slam dunk threats other than probably clippers and some LES, but we should at least have cold to play with if the pattern doesn't become too suppressed for us. 

Sounds good to me. Give me a cold pattern and odds are good we see snow. Always love a clipper train.

[OHweather]

40 minutes ago, Stebo said:

The one thing that could still help the region with respect to snow is the PNA looks to remain very negative as well. This will leave a southeast ridge in place, we very well could end up with a strong gradient pattern then, which the GFS has been hinting at after day 10.

I think if we keep the -EPO ridge going long enough that eventually we worry about suppression, but a stubborn SE ridge (which definitely may be a part of the pattern coming up) can offset that for a while. The long range ensembles hint at a -NAO in the longer range which could try to combat the SE ridge, but at this point I'll believe it when we actually see it on an analysis plot this winter (okay that's a bit extreme, but let's get it inside of a week).

[RogueWaves]

4 hours ago, OHweather said:

I think if we keep the -EPO ridge going long enough that eventually we worry about suppression, but a stubborn SE ridge (which definitely may be a part of the pattern coming up) can offset that for a while. The long range ensembles hint at a -NAO in the longer range which could try to combat the SE ridge, but at this point I'll believe it when we actually see it on an analysis plot this winter (okay that's a bit extreme, but let's get it inside of a week).

That will eventually happen, but it may take quite a while. I think January's our month (GL's & OHV) for the right ingredients to come together for something big. Either way, we get cold, and snow just naturally follows. At least in MI, that's how we roll. 

[Hoosier]

7 hours ago, OHweather said:

I think if we keep the -EPO ridge going long enough that eventually we worry about suppression, but a stubborn SE ridge (which definitely may be a part of the pattern coming up) can offset that for a while. The long range ensembles hint at a -NAO in the longer range which could try to combat the SE ridge, but at this point I'll believe it when we actually see it on an analysis plot this winter (okay that's a bit extreme, but let's get it inside of a week).

Definitely have had a lot of phantom -NAO progs in the long range.  Suppose it's bound to happen eventually.

[Stebo]

8 hours ago, OHweather said:

I think if we keep the -EPO ridge going long enough that eventually we worry about suppression, but a stubborn SE ridge (which definitely may be a part of the pattern coming up) can offset that for a while. The long range ensembles hint at a -NAO in the longer range which could try to combat the SE ridge, but at this point I'll believe it when we actually see it on an analysis plot this winter (okay that's a bit extreme, but let's get it inside of a week).

Until we build up a good snow pack at least to here, I am not worried about suppression. I do get the concern considering what we have seen so far in previous years but with the PNA being super negative and the ridge really entrenched in the southeast, it will take a lot to get it dislodged. I don't think the -NAO will be enough.

[TugHillMatt]

30 minutes ago, Hoosier said:

Definitely have had a lot of phantom -NAO progs in the long range.  Suppose it's bound to happen eventually.

I think I would rather our chances with suppression to the south from a -NAO than "suppression" of cold to the north from a + AO.