Winter 2016-2017 Medium/Long Range Discussion

[IWXwx]

The op GFS from last Thursday says, "I don't like getting laughed at". The overnight run is 18 hours later than last week was predicting, but it sticks out it's "warm tongue" at us.

[buckeye]

2 hours ago, Angrysummons said:

Any psychics with a idea when a wintery pattern will return?

Not psychic, but I do have a good feeling that we'll get our big dog when the pattern finally reloads.   That allusive CMH January snowstorm, (app runner), is gonna finally happen this winter...post torch...mark it down!       March '08 about a month and a half earlier, (wasn't that a weak la nina winter?).

[buckeye]

1 hour ago, IWXwx said:

The op GFS from last Thursday says, "I don't like getting laughed at". The overnight run is 18 hours later than last week was predicting, but it sticks out it's "warm tongue" at us.

 

It's funny how at times the GFS will find a long range nut, lose it, and then find it again in the short term.  I've seen that happen a lot of times with big storms.  It's like a model without self confidence.

 

[csnavywx]

Still a few days away, but I'm rather liking the dryline-like setup ahead of the end-week system that is showing up. If the low ends up bombing, it'll probably be a QLCS, but if it comes in a bit weaker, the weaker ascent would favor some more discrete storms and a chance at a few decent spinners. Time of day isn't nearly as important this time of year as these setups are generally almost totally driven by advective processes. Something to watch.

[cyclone77]

Only about a 70 degree difference in dewpoints compared to the exact same time the week before.

[michsnowfreak]

14 hours ago, DAFF said:

The thing I take from this is the likely hood of a Christmas storm is increasing with each run. While it might not be the best scenario for an individuals back yard with the runs of today, tomorrow will more than likely be different once again... Its been a great start to the winter season and a melt down is to be expected so early in the season. It reminds me of the winter a few years ago with lots of snow heading into Christmas which turned out to be brown.... To the record winter breaking season it was.

You may be thinking of 2013-14...every snow record was seemingly broken. Snowcover and snow depth records smashed, yet for a few days centered on Christmas we went down to a T depth (patches and piles plus a fresh dusting, so white-ish but not official). We had grinch storms in 2007 & 2008 take deep snowcover and torch it away right before Christmas. Christmas of 2005 was white but had pouring rain all day. The inferno that was December 2012 all of a sudden had a surprise Christmas Eve snowfall. Lots of weird stuff around Christmas lately. Even though snowcovered Decembers of 2005 & 2010 cant compete with the length of deep (6"+) snowpack this December has provided. Deepest lasting December snowpack since 2000 here. As long as this years storm doesnt speed up drastically we should still be good for plenty of snowpack on Christmas Day, then Boxing Day will see most of it torched away.

 

But a reminder, this winter was forecast to be up and down, so plenty more fun probably lies ahead. We have been so spoiled the last decade plus that we do sometimes need a climo reminder lol.

[michsnowfreak]

1 hour ago, buckeye said:

Not psychic, but I do have a good feeling that we'll get our big dog when the pattern finally reloads.   That allusive CMH January snowstorm, (app runner), is gonna finally happen this winter...post torch...mark it down!       March '08 about a month and a half earlier, (wasn't that a weak la nina winter?).

Agree

[osubrett2]

2 hours ago, buckeye said:

Not psychic, but I do have a good feeling that we'll get our big dog when the pattern finally reloads.   That allusive CMH January snowstorm, (app runner), is gonna finally happen this winter...post torch...mark it down!       March '08 about a month and a half earlier, (wasn't that a weak la nina winter?).

2007-2008 was a weak to moderate La Nina winter. January was pretty average, February had 2 or 3 warm stretches, but ended up slightly below average, but less than a week before the March '08 "blizzard", I remember being in shorts because it was in the 60s and maybe even 70 outside.

[Hoosier]

4 hours ago, csnavywx said:

Still a few days away, but I'm rather liking the dryline-like setup ahead of the end-week system that is showing up. If the low ends up bombing, it'll probably be a QLCS, but if it comes in a bit weaker, the weaker ascent would favor some more discrete storms and a chance at a few decent spinners. Time of day isn't nearly as important this time of year as these setups are generally almost totally driven by advective processes. Something to watch.

I'm wondering how far north the severe threat would get if the latest runs pan out.  Currently have some pretty good snowcover, especially north of I-80, and forecast temps for the next 3-4 days don't suggest a rapid/huge meltoff until we get into Sunday.  It will be a race to see how fast it melts off.  Where it doesn't melt off, then it may be tough to realize a surface based storm threat.  But given time of year, it would be pretty impressive if we can even get a threat up to I-80.

[Stebo]

55 minutes ago, Hoosier said:

I'm wondering how far north the severe threat would get if the latest runs pan out.  Currently have some pretty good snowcover, especially north of I-80, and forecast temps for the next 3-4 days don't suggest a rapid/huge meltoff until we get into Sunday.  It will be a race to see how fast it melts off.  Where it doesn't melt off, then it may be tough to realize a surface based storm threat.  But given time of year, it would be pretty impressive if we can even get a threat up to I-80.

Not worried about snow cover, we had snow cover 2 days beforehand back in January 2008 and ended up getting severe up in Mount Pleasant.

[Hoosier]

8 minutes ago, Stebo said:

Not worried about snow cover, we had snow cover 2 days beforehand back in January 2008 and ended up getting severe up in Mount Pleasant.

Was it all melted off by the time of the severe weather?

[CoalCityWxMan]

32 minutes ago, Stebo said:

Not worried about snow cover, we had snow cover 2 days beforehand back in January 2008 and ended up getting severe up in Mount Pleasant.

I remember that actually. We had a big snowstorm like less than a week before that event, on New Year's Eve. I remember it melted pretty quickly though once it warmed up the day of that event. 

[on_wx]

49 minutes ago, Stebo said:

Not worried about snow cover, we had snow cover 2 days beforehand back in January 2008 and ended up getting severe up in Mount Pleasant.

We had tornado watches into southwestern Ontario. IIRC we had snow cover up  here 2 counties away from the watch

[madwx]

1 hour ago, Hoosier said:

Was it all melted off by the time of the severe weather?

Not sure about in Michigan but for the Jan 7 2008 EF3 tornado in SE Wisconsin, there were definitely patches of snow, but not the entire ground covered in the pictures of damage taken right after the tornado.

 

Think it will depend on how high the dewpoints can get before the event, that will really help accelerate melting

[Stebo]

1 hour ago, Hoosier said:

Was it all melted off by the time of the severe weather?

Yes except for shopping center parking lots. We had a good fog day that crushed most of it the 2 days beforehand.

[Stebo]

11 minutes ago, madwx said:

Not sure about in Michigan but for the Jan 7 2008 EF3 tornado in SE Wisconsin, there were definitely patches of snow, but not the entire ground covered in the pictures of damage taken right after the tornado.

 

Think it will depend on how high the dewpoints can get before the event, that will really help accelerate melting

There was snow on the ground in western Michigan. That same storm is what produced the severe warnings up my way that event.

[Hoosier]

9 minutes ago, madwx said:

Not sure about in Michigan but for the Jan 7 2008 EF3 tornado in SE Wisconsin, there were definitely patches of snow, but not the entire ground covered in the pictures of damage taken right after the tornado.

 

Think it will depend on how high the dewpoints can get before the event, that will really help accelerate melting

I remember the patches in the 2008 damage pics.  Also has a case like that in Illinois or Iowa a couple years ago.  Patches really wouldn't matter.  I'm talking about whether there could be a surface based thunderstorm threat in an environment characterized by a blanket of leftover snow.

[Stebo]

Just for reference here is the 10 day history around that event for Mount Pleasant 

https://www.wunderground.com/history/airportfrompws/KMOP/2008/1/1/CustomHistory.html?dayend=10&monthend=1&yearend=2008&req_city=&req_state=&req_statename=&reqdb.zip=&reqdb.magic=&reqdb.wmo=

[Thundersnow12]

#MakeWinterGreatAgain #DontWant50s 

[andyhb]

7 hours ago, csnavywx said:

Still a few days away, but I'm rather liking the dryline-like setup ahead of the end-week system that is showing up. If the low ends up bombing, it'll probably be a QLCS, but if it comes in a bit weaker, the weaker ascent would favor some more discrete storms and a chance at a few decent spinners. Time of day isn't nearly as important this time of year as these setups are generally almost totally driven by advective processes. Something to watch.

Was thinking New Years Eve 2010, although that was a higher end cold season event as far as MO goes. Some of the model runs have shown solutions somewhat similar to that.

[Nelson]

17 minutes ago, Thundersnow12 said:

#MakeWinterGreatAgain #DontWant50s 

Was just thinking this earlier today - I don't want 50s. As interesting as severe prospects would be, this is going to hurt after a really nice start to the season.

[Roon]

18z GFS is farther west and has this thing at 979 over W. Central MN.

 

lol.

[Maxim]

tired of this cold garbage...

 

wouldn't mind if it hit 60.

[cyclone77]

Maybe this is a new theme for the holidays.  Last year on xmas eve-eve I chased a tor warned mini sup not far from town.  It had earlier produced a nader south of the QC.  Wouldn't mind bagging an xmas ternader lol.  

[Tim from Springfield (IL)]

I wonder if we should start a new thread for the Christmas weekend storm system--I was thinking about doing so but am reluctant to do so on winter systems.

Anyway, no thunder mention yet for Christmas/Christmas night in my local point-and-click NWS forecast nor in ILX's zone forecast for Sangamon County, but ILX's late afternoon AFD is now hinting at the possibility of a severe threat at least late Christmas night, and possibly into early Monday morning.  Also mentions the possibility of a shortwave appetizer along/south of I-72 for Friday night/Saturday morning:

.LONG TERM...(Wednesday night through Tuesday)
ISSUED AT 250 PM CST Tue Dec 20 2016

A weak shortwave is forecast to push across the Upper Great Lakes
Wednesday dragging a weak trof/wind shift across the area during
the evening. Main forcing and moisture will remain to our north
with any precipitation near the track of the surface low over
northern Wisconsin into Michigan. 850 temperatures edge down
slightly as weak high pressure drifts across the area on Thursday
resulting in very little change in afternoon highs, generally
from 35 to 40 degrees. The high should move off to our east on
Friday as shortwave energy ejects northeast out of the Southern
Plains later in the day spreading clouds and low chance POPs into
parts of the forecast area later in the afternoon and evening.
Best threat looks to be along and south of Interstate 72 later in
the day, but even there, POPs are not much higher than 35% for a
little rain, or rain and snow mixture in the evening. The system
continues to minor out as it tracks quickly across the region with
most of the measureable precipitation temporarily shifting south
into the Ohio Valley late Friday into Saturday morning.

The main forecast concern this period will be with the track of the
major storm system forecast to come out of the Rockies later this
holiday weekend (slowing trend continues with the latest ECMWF).
Medium range models continue to show the deep trof pushing into the
Rockies on Sunday with a strong surface low expected to push out of
Colorado and track northeast well west of our area Sunday night into
Monday with the ECMWF continuing to trend slower with the frontal
passage during the day Monday. The models continue to show a strong
southeast U.S. ridge building north as the upper low edges east out
of the Rockies late in the weekend, with the ECMWF preferred with
the track and speed of the surface low and resultant frontal passage
across our eastern counties early Monday afternoon. Ahead of the
front, strong southerly winds will transport warm/moist air northward
into the Midwest resulting in some very mild temperatures for
Christmas Day with highs from 50 north to around 60 over southwest
through southern Illinois. Temperatures will be steady or even may
inch up Sunday night as the storm system passes well to our
northwest with showers and isolated thunderstorms a good bet later
Sunday night and especially Monday morning. Looks like your
typical cool season severe threat with very little instability at
the low levels of the atmosphere, but deep layered shear present
just ahead of the frontal boundary. Sounding data indicates wind
speeds from 3000-6000 feet will range from 50-65 kts, so any
heavier shower could produce some strong gusty winds at the
surface early Monday morning. Precip chances gradually end from
west to east Monday afternoon with cooler weather moving in for
the rest of this forecast period.

[Jonger]

The GFS weakens and pushes the Dec 28th storm south... Hopefully it dissolves away into nothing.

[Jrad08]

24 minutes ago, Jonger said:

The GFS weakens and pushes the Dec 28th storm south... Hopefully it dissolves away into nothing.

Much colder during this time frame as well... previous runs had dews at 60 again with super cell type structure for the storms on the 28th

[Jonger]

13 minutes ago, Jrad08 said:

Much colder during this time frame as well... previous runs had dews at 60 again with super cell type structure for the storms on the 28th

My area of concern (northern Michigan & UP) can handle one warm shot with rain, but not two. That would erase everything that fell so far.

[UMB WX]

absolutely disgusting 

[Jackstraw]

1 hour ago, Jonger said:

My area of concern (northern Michigan & UP) can handle one warm shot with rain, but not two. That would erase everything that fell so far.

I know the snow depth maps suck but this is ridiculous if it were to come to fruition.