Hoosier Posted December 19, 2016 Author Share Posted December 19, 2016 On 12/19/2016 at 6:00 PM, cyclone77 said: This. Kind of waiting for that to happen yet again, but like you said, one of these times... Expand If we're destined to have the cutter, then I'm going all the way and hoping for some good thunder/severe prospects. Looking at the GFS, you probably wouldn't need much more of a bump in temps/dews to bring some severe threat pretty far north with those dynamics. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cyclone77 Posted December 19, 2016 Share Posted December 19, 2016 On 12/19/2016 at 6:08 PM, Hoosier said: If we're destined to have the cutter, then I'm going all the way and hoping for some good thunder/severe prospects. Looking at the GFS, you probably wouldn't need much more of a bump in temps/dews to bring some severe threat pretty far north with those dynamics. Expand Agreed. All or nothing lol. Honestly such a transition from the arctic air we've had, to a warm thundery threat would be pretty sweet. The Euro from last night showed a nice elevated convection look along the WAA wing from Iowa eastward on xmas day. Something like mid 30s with hailers, and then vaulted to near 60 that night. Would be a pretty interesting scenario. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stebo Posted December 19, 2016 Share Posted December 19, 2016 On 12/19/2016 at 6:08 PM, Hoosier said: If we're destined to have the cutter, then I'm going all the way and hoping for some good thunder/severe prospects. Looking at the GFS, you probably wouldn't need much more of a bump in temps/dews to bring some severe threat pretty far north with those dynamics. Expand Yep, I am in the same boat. If we are going this way go all the way. The prospect of severe weather with this one is pretty good too. The thing that I find very interesting thus far, even with all this cold weather, the gulf hasn't been blasted with cold air. It is still a nice simmering pot out there, just waiting to be tapped. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IWXwx Posted December 19, 2016 Share Posted December 19, 2016 Yes!! Chasing on Christmas! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cyclone77 Posted December 19, 2016 Share Posted December 19, 2016 12z EC still cutting into southwest Minnie at sub 1000mb. Huge warm sector push northward like in previous runs. Youuuuge blizzard for SD/ND again. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cyclone77 Posted December 19, 2016 Share Posted December 19, 2016 Another very impressive cold front associated with this storm. New EC shows a muggy 62 at Ottumwa, while at the same time Sioux City is shivering at 16 on Christmas night. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
michsnowfreak Posted December 19, 2016 Share Posted December 19, 2016 If you take the models verbatim it will be a white Christmas with pouring rain here. Luckily 6 days out and luckily even the worst case we still have snowcover for christmas Eve and day. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted December 19, 2016 Author Share Posted December 19, 2016 That cutoff low that ejects out ahead of the big trough (as it's currently progged) sort of helps to kick start the moisture return northward. Coming out of the cold/dry airmass we're in, that would be an important detail in trying to get a severe threat to materialize at a climatologically unfavorable time/location. Still, let's wait and see if these runs hold this look for the next few days. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
buckeye Posted December 19, 2016 Share Posted December 19, 2016 On 12/19/2016 at 6:45 PM, michsnowfreak said: If you take the models verbatim it will be a white Christmas with pouring rain here. Luckily 6 days out and luckily even the worst case we still have snowcover for christmas Eve and day. Expand Wow...if 12z euro is correct record high temps for many on boxing day. Has us here in Central Ohio in mid 60's! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted December 19, 2016 Author Share Posted December 19, 2016 On 12/19/2016 at 6:42 PM, cyclone77 said: Another very impressive cold front associated with this storm. New EC shows a muggy 62 at Ottumwa, while at the same time Sioux City is shivering at 16 on Christmas night. Expand Close to 60 in Chicago at 12z on the 26th...would be a record high for the day lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
hawkeye_wx Posted December 19, 2016 Share Posted December 19, 2016 -40F wind chill one Sunday to +60F the next? If we can't get more snow, I wouldn't mind seeing the opposite extreme. I wouldn't want that on top of a foot of snow cover, but we only have a few inches so it wouldn't be a big deal. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted December 19, 2016 Author Share Posted December 19, 2016 On 12/19/2016 at 7:09 PM, Willh said: I highly doubt I will lose my snowcover in the next 6 days Pictures taken today: Expand It would take an act of God for you to lose all that from one storm taking a bad track. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
buckeye Posted December 19, 2016 Share Posted December 19, 2016 On 12/19/2016 at 7:11 PM, Hoosier said: Close to 60 in Chicago at 12z on the 26th...would be a record high for the day lol Expand hell if we're gonna torch let's do it proud with records and all. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jonger Posted December 19, 2016 Share Posted December 19, 2016 On 12/19/2016 at 6:08 PM, Hoosier said: If we're destined to have the cutter, then I'm going all the way and hoping for some good thunder/severe prospects. Looking at the GFS, you probably wouldn't need much more of a bump in temps/dews to bring some severe threat pretty far north with those dynamics. Expand I had my roof ripped off and caused $11,000 in damage in November. I know the weather will do what it's going to do regardless, but I'll pass. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Indystorm Posted December 19, 2016 Share Posted December 19, 2016 I will be heading up to the Calumet region of nw IN from Indpls area on Christmas day afternoon. Nothing like the prospect of t storms and chasing possibilities on the drive up! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
UMB WX Posted December 19, 2016 Share Posted December 19, 2016 07/08 had some extremes and we bounced back over and over.. The timing is just unfortunate and what I was worried about at the beginning of this nice stretch that we would have a relaxation just in time to Grinch us at the worst time for outdoor enthusiast. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Younar Posted December 19, 2016 Share Posted December 19, 2016 There may be some small hope yet for the IA, MN, WI and western UP crowd regarding the Christmas storm. It looks like the GFS and European ensemble means run the surface low through the far southeastern corner of MN and then up towards MQT. So there must be some more southern solutions in the lot. The ops (Euro in particular) are pretty far NW of that track. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jonger Posted December 19, 2016 Share Posted December 19, 2016 On 12/19/2016 at 8:30 PM, UMB WX said: 07/08 had some extremes and we bounced back over and over.. The timing is just unfortunate and what I was worried about at the beginning of this nice stretch that we would have a relaxation just in time to Grinch us at the worst time for outdoor enthusiast. Expand The Dec 26th through Jan 1st period is the most important week of the year for winter spending. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Roon Posted December 19, 2016 Share Posted December 19, 2016 On 12/19/2016 at 9:02 PM, Willh said: Honestly, I'm going to bet my life that the end result here leads this thru a line south of Rochester - The Soo. I will kill myself if I'm not 100% right. Expand Ummm.....Not the best of topics to joke around about honestly. I hope the ensemble means are correct. The GFS is just getting worse with each run. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ConfusedKitten Posted December 19, 2016 Share Posted December 19, 2016 18z has it bombing to 978 over Minnesota I'm pretty pissed that the GFS is getting consistent with this thing, I was planning a ski trip for the 26th. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Roon Posted December 19, 2016 Share Posted December 19, 2016 On 12/19/2016 at 10:28 PM, ConfusedKitten said: 18z has it bombing to 978 over Minnesota I'm pretty pissed that the GFS is getting consistent with this thing, I was planning a ski trip for the 26th. Expand Not sure I would say that the GFS is getting consistent. Just yesterday it had the low tracking through the very SE of MN and now it is cutting it right up through the middle of MN. Still plenty of time for it to do what it should and come back south and east. MPX still likes the ensembles for now in their afternoon discussion if that means anything. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ConfusedKitten Posted December 19, 2016 Share Posted December 19, 2016 On 12/19/2016 at 10:32 PM, Roon said: Not sure I would say that the GFS is getting consistent. Just yesterday it had the low tracking through the very SE of MN and now it is cutting it right up through the middle of MN. Still plenty of time for it to do what it should and come back south and east. Expand I definitely don't like the way it's trending but you're right it's still a week out. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Indystorm Posted December 19, 2016 Share Posted December 19, 2016 At least both GFS and Euro have a storm to track, and I'm particularly intrigued that both severe and snow could be part of this in some locations. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
buckeye Posted December 19, 2016 Share Posted December 19, 2016 On 12/19/2016 at 10:47 PM, Indystorm said: At least both GFS and Euro have a storm to track, and I'm particularly intrigued that both severe and snow could be part of this in some locations. Expand Tornado sirens on xmas day... that would be one to tell the grand kids. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chinook Posted December 19, 2016 Share Posted December 19, 2016 On 12/19/2016 at 10:32 PM, Roon said: Not sure I would say that the GFS is getting consistent. Just yesterday it had the low tracking through the very SE of MN and now it is cutting it right up through the middle of MN. Still plenty of time for it to do what it should and come back south and east. MPX still likes the ensembles for now in their afternoon discussion if that means anything. Expand Over a day ago now, the GFS was saying the low would be in OK and AR, with snow in Oklahoma City. Now the snow is north of Minneapolis! That's pretty much a huge spread of possible low-pressure and snow-swath solutions in 6 runs (00z Sunday to 12z Monday). Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DAFF Posted December 20, 2016 Share Posted December 20, 2016 On 12/19/2016 at 11:22 PM, Chinook said: Over a day ago now, the GFS was saying the low would be in OK and AR, with snow in Oklahoma City. Now the snow is north of Minneapolis! That's pretty much a huge spread of possible low-pressure and snow-swath solutions in 6 runs (00z Sunday to 12z Monday). Expand The thing I take from this is the likely hood of a Christmas storm is increasing with each run. While it might not be the best scenario for an individuals back yard with the runs of today, tomorrow will more than likely be different once again... Its been a great start to the winter season and a melt down is to be expected so early in the season. It reminds me of the winter a few years ago with lots of snow heading into Christmas which turned out to be brown.... To the record winter breaking season it was. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted December 20, 2016 Author Share Posted December 20, 2016 The Omaha afternoon afd actually mentioned severe potential, especially for their eastern area. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Maxim Posted December 20, 2016 Share Posted December 20, 2016 On 12/19/2016 at 10:32 PM, Roon said: Not sure I would say that the GFS is getting consistent. Just yesterday it had the low tracking through the very SE of MN and now it is cutting it right up through the middle of MN. Still plenty of time for it to do what it should and come back south and east. MPX still likes the ensembles for now in their afternoon discussion if that means anything. Expand With the teleconnections in place, it's not going to trend south/east. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jrad08 Posted December 20, 2016 Share Posted December 20, 2016 Really thinking we may have both Christmas and near New Years Eve severe events that could really be special for this time of year. Dews Near 60 with record highs combined with the extreme wind energy could be epic...by winter standards Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Maxim Posted December 20, 2016 Share Posted December 20, 2016 would be cool to go from near record lows to record highs within a week or so... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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