Hoosier Posted December 18, 2016 Author Share Posted December 18, 2016 1 hour ago, IWXwx said: This morning's GFS doesn't do anything to buoy my hopes for this quasi clipper. I was hoping to see it do a little more digging. Still a producer for Northern MI and our ON posters. The end of the NAM run shows a similar track, but does carry much more precip with it, throwing some down our way. Is it being its usual overjuiced self or is it picking up on more Pacific moisture transport? I'm not seeing the precip this far south on the NAM. The composite reflectivity shows stuff, but that can be misleading. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Younar Posted December 18, 2016 Share Posted December 18, 2016 1 hour ago, Hoosier said: 12z GFS and GGEM both have a nice looking storm on Christmas and into early next week. Let's see about the Euro. Holy smokes that would be a Christmas miracle up here on the 12z Euro. 1-2 feet for much of MN and northern WI. Never want to be in the crosshairs this far out though... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
harrisale Posted December 18, 2016 Share Posted December 18, 2016 Bears watching no doubt. The previous storm at this range looked pretty good on the models and we know how that turned out. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted December 18, 2016 Author Share Posted December 18, 2016 18z GFS still has the Christmas storm. Only about 25 runs to go. This particular depiction looks interesting, with almost a straight rain/snow transition zone. With a sprawling 1040+ mb high to the north in late December, it seems odd to not have more of an icy transition zone. Who knows if the setup will look like this or even exist by then though Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ayuud11 Posted December 18, 2016 Share Posted December 18, 2016 Meanwhile both the 0z & 12 GFS para runs show this.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
andyhb Posted December 19, 2016 Share Posted December 19, 2016 That cut-off in the SW is going to play a huge role in whatever happens towards Christmas. Going to be a difficult forecast because of it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted December 19, 2016 Author Share Posted December 19, 2016 45 minutes ago, andyhb said: That cut-off in the SW is going to play a huge role in whatever happens towards Christmas. Going to be a difficult forecast because of it. Good catch. Hopefully we can manage a big, widespread storm out of this. The height rises/SE ridge being progged on the guidance reaches almost stupid levels, so anything ejecting out is going to be hard pressed to be too suppressed. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Michigander Posted December 19, 2016 Share Posted December 19, 2016 GRR likes the GFS so far... Quote The operational GFS and ECMWF diverge somewhat at the end of the long term on Saturday and Sunday. The ECMWF has a more wrapped up system for Saturday, whereas the GFS has a weaker surface trough. On Sunday the ECMWF deepens a strong low in the plains lifting it into the Western Great Lakes. The GFS is weaker and flatter with the system. Like the GFS more here given its track record lately and the zonal flow in place ahead of it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
andyhb Posted December 19, 2016 Share Posted December 19, 2016 Lol if the 00z Euro is on the right track, there might be chasers out in the Plains on Christmas. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted December 19, 2016 Author Share Posted December 19, 2016 17 minutes ago, andyhb said: Lol if the 00z Euro is on the right track, there might be chasers out in the Plains on Christmas. That was some run. Hope it changes though as I'm not in the mood to be grinched. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
UMB WX Posted December 19, 2016 Share Posted December 19, 2016 Why of freaking course there will be the token Holiday Grinch Storm and erase all the good we've finally had again in a Dec. Should of stayed in bed and just pissed it because who gets up to go to bathroom and doesn't do a quick 0Z check of models and forum. The joys of being a snow nut, and also finally buying your first snowmobile living in SE WI. Last storm looked like a cutter at first..somehow avoided.. sigh. still time to change, or move 300 miles north for the winter... I am off, anybody in the UP want a roommate for the winter? lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jonger Posted December 19, 2016 Share Posted December 19, 2016 5 hours ago, Hoosier said: That was some run. Hope it changes though as I'm not in the mood to be grinched. Yea, the pattern really goes to crap after this week. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
josh_4184 Posted December 19, 2016 Share Posted December 19, 2016 1 hour ago, Jonger said: Yea, the pattern really goes to crap after this week. Latest GFS run was ugly would put a big dent into everything that has been built up the past two weeks. Especially between X-Mas and New Years. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jonger Posted December 19, 2016 Share Posted December 19, 2016 14 minutes ago, josh_4184 said: Latest GFS run was ugly would put a big dent into everything that has been built up the past two weeks. Especially between X-Mas and New Years. Yup, makes planning winter sports quite challenging. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
michsnowfreak Posted December 19, 2016 Share Posted December 19, 2016 33 minutes ago, Jonger said: Yup, makes planning winter sports quite challenging. Its been a fantastic start to winter here...but all along this was forecast to be a volatile, up and down winter. We could be dealing with this for the next 3-4 months (lots of snowstorms, lots of meltdowns, etc). Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
harrisale Posted December 19, 2016 Share Posted December 19, 2016 CFS weekly Dec 24-29th Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
josh_4184 Posted December 19, 2016 Share Posted December 19, 2016 1 hour ago, michsnowfreak said: Its been a fantastic start to winter here...but all along this was forecast to be a volatile, up and down winter. We could be dealing with this for the next 3-4 months (lots of snowstorms, lots of meltdowns, etc). Nothing pretty about this, granted its 160 hours out so take with a grain of salt. Does anyone know what the ECMWF is showing? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jonger Posted December 19, 2016 Share Posted December 19, 2016 2 hours ago, Willh said: This potential Christmas storm looks nice. It's going to wobble from the current plan... But as of today, you would see rain. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
therock Posted December 19, 2016 Share Posted December 19, 2016 Noooooooooo!!!!!!! All of my snow is toast if this happens. I'm loving the deep winter feel up here right now and I'd hate to lose it (which seems like a lock at this point). I need a 300 mile south shift. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jonger Posted December 19, 2016 Share Posted December 19, 2016 8 hours ago, UMB WX said: Why of freaking course there will be the token Holiday Grinch Storm and erase all the good we've finally had again in a Dec. Should of stayed in bed and just pissed it because who gets up to go to bathroom and doesn't do a quick 0Z check of models and forum. The joys of being a snow nut, and also finally buying your first snowmobile living in SE WI. Last storm looked like a cutter at first..somehow avoided.. sigh. still time to change, or move 300 miles north for the winter... I am off, anybody in the UP want a roommate for the winter? lol I don't know if the UP will avoid the rain. The one is going over Duluth right now. To make matters worse, the storm a couple days after this looks to be the nail in the coffin on most of the midwest snowpack. Back to the beginning.. I'll probably park my sled until mid January now. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Roon Posted December 19, 2016 Share Posted December 19, 2016 Just a gross system as it stands. Everybody loses except for the eastern Dakota's and NW MN. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jonger Posted December 19, 2016 Share Posted December 19, 2016 There is a distinct possibility that last years +10F December may end up in better shape on Jan 1st than this years -4F December ( as of today ). Jan 1st outcome. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Snowstorms Posted December 19, 2016 Share Posted December 19, 2016 Both 12z GFS and 12z GGEM take next weeks storm through the upper Great Lakes translating to warmth and rain for most of us in the south. Its a viable solution especially with the lack of blocking in place (+NAO/AO/EPO/WPO) and SE ridge, but it all comes down to timing. The strength of the HP in Western Canada and Quebec will play a key role in that, as well as the strength of the SE ridge. Lets see! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jonger Posted December 19, 2016 Share Posted December 19, 2016 Just now, Snowstorms said: Both 12z GFS and 12z GGEM take next weeks storm through the upper Great Lakes translating to warmth and rain for most of us in the south. Its a viable solution especially with the lack of blocking in place (+NAO/AO/EPO/WPO) and SE ridge, but it all comes down to timing. The strength of the HP in Western Canada and Quebec will play a key role in that, as well as the strength of the SE ridge. Lets see! I'd be happy with a 250 mile SE shift. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Younar Posted December 19, 2016 Share Posted December 19, 2016 Even up here our snow would wash away... that would make for the third straight brown Christmas for most of the Twin Cities metro... unbelievable. I'm not panicking just yet but I see the panic button flashing in the corner of the room. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Snowstorms Posted December 19, 2016 Share Posted December 19, 2016 2 minutes ago, Jonger said: I'd be happy with a 250 mile SE shift. I mean its a hostile pattern especially with the +AO/NAO dominating the Atlantic and the more weaker +EPO and -PNA in the Pacific. You got lack of blocking on both sides, so a warmer solution IMO seems more plausible, given the situation were in. I could be wrong, but with the type of pattern in place, it only seems more fit. Lets see! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
harrisale Posted December 19, 2016 Share Posted December 19, 2016 Earlier runs had some strong blocking to the north of the system. I recall seeing a 1044mb high pressing in from the north and keeping the system flatter and south. That seems to have disappeared from all the models now. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted December 19, 2016 Author Share Posted December 19, 2016 You definitely can't rule out the Plains/cutter in this regime, but one thing that seems to have been happening multiple times at this range is for the models to show something going way west, only to end up being weaker/sheared out/farther south by the time it gets here. One of these times It's not going to work, but it wasn't that long ago that we were seeing some pretty favorable runs for a lot of this region. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cyclone77 Posted December 19, 2016 Share Posted December 19, 2016 Would definitely suck to lose the widespread snowpack, but it's gonna do what it's gonna do. No complaints here, have already had a great Dec. If the above comes to fruition I guess I'll look at it as a great chance to wash the salt off the vehicles lol. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cyclone77 Posted December 19, 2016 Share Posted December 19, 2016 20 minutes ago, Hoosier said: You definitely can't rule out the Plains/cutter in this regime, but one thing that seems to have been happening multiple times at this range is for the models to show something going way west, only to end up being weaker/sheared out/farther south by the time it gets here. One of these times It's not going to work, but it wasn't that long ago that we were seeing some pretty favorable runs for a lot of this region. This. Kind of waiting for that to happen yet again, but like you said, one of these times... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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