Natester Posted December 11, 2016 Share Posted December 11, 2016 Just now, Hoosier said: If there's one thing I've learned about Natester, it's that he doesn't like ice. Yeah, 2/24/2007, worst ice storm in my life. 12/11/2007 wasn't as bad as there was no wind. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowlover2 Posted December 11, 2016 Share Posted December 11, 2016 0z GGEM shows a bowling ball type of solution with most of MO,IA,IL,IN,OH get a good hit. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Nelson Posted December 11, 2016 Share Posted December 11, 2016 21 hours ago, csnavywx said: Euro, GFS and GEM agree on a storm at that range. Timing and strength differ, but the general setup of a strong cA/mT boundary with a wide open Gulf and plenty of in-situ and advected frigid air around will make for an interesting scenario. Definitely going to be keeping my eye on this one. Ripe for an ice event. Enjoy your posts csnavywx - wish this forum software had a 'like' button. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted December 11, 2016 Author Share Posted December 11, 2016 Euro 979 mb in northern Kansas at 144 hrs. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
andyhb Posted December 11, 2016 Share Posted December 11, 2016 1 hour ago, Hoosier said: Euro 979 mb in northern Kansas at 144 hrs. The LLJ on the Euro between 144 and 162 is just insanity, both in its breadth and overall strength. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted December 11, 2016 Author Share Posted December 11, 2016 3 minutes ago, andyhb said: The LLJ on the Euro between 144 and 162 is just insanity, both in its breadth and overall strength. Yeah, and the low level thermal advection on the GFS/ECMWF is pretty nuts as a result. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowlover2 Posted December 11, 2016 Share Posted December 11, 2016 6z GFS has a 2 wave storm now. First heads north through the lakes then a second farther south that tracks through TN and WV. Big hit for S IL, most of IN and most of Ohio except extreme southern part. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cyclone77 Posted December 11, 2016 Share Posted December 11, 2016 7 hours ago, Hoosier said: Yeah, and the low level thermal advection on the GFS/ECMWF is pretty nuts as a result. The baroclinicy at 850 is pretty nuts on the Euro as well. +18C in southwest KS, vs -8C in northwest KS @144hrs. Would make for one hell of a blue norther. Dodge City goes from 66 to 22 between 6pm and midnight lol. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Powerball Posted December 11, 2016 Share Posted December 11, 2016 Without a doubt, next weekend's storm is certainly going to be a behemoth. It will be unfortunate though if it destroys the snow many areas have now as we head into Christmas, because it's probably going to completely work over the atmosphere and suppress additional storms for some time in its wake. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
buckeye Posted December 11, 2016 Share Posted December 11, 2016 4 hours ago, snowlover2 said: 6z GFS has a 2 wave storm now. First heads north through the lakes then a second farther south that tracks through TN and WV. Big hit for S IL, most of IN and most of Ohio except extreme southern part. Yea it would be snow to heavy rain followed by a snow storm. I can't even begin to analog that scenario. Our best hope is that nothing winds up at all and instead we keep a pos tilted trough with an entrenched cold high to the north and we end up with one or more waves. It seems current trends in the MR to LR have been to see these wound up storm scenarios fall apart and become shadows of their previously modeled-selves in the short term. That doesn't mean a weak storm will automatically take a favorable more southern track, (especially with a se ridge acting like a teenage boy experimenting with steroids), but it's the best hope we have. (see ukie) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
zinski1990 Posted December 11, 2016 Share Posted December 11, 2016 Storm doesn't make much sense 1st round. The low is pushing out strong high pressures like nothing. The Canadian model has been most consistent this far out with it. GFS is in its typical wacky stage at this range. Euro well who knows Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cyclone77 Posted December 11, 2016 Share Posted December 11, 2016 MSP special on the new GFS. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted December 11, 2016 Author Share Posted December 11, 2016 8 minutes ago, cyclone77 said: MSP special on the new GFS. The model freezing line jumps a good 300 miles north between 6z-12z Saturday. That is awfully impressive, and happening under cover of darkness to boot. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted December 11, 2016 Author Share Posted December 11, 2016 This is one of the widest LLJ I've ever seen, especially the 65+ kt velocities Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Powerball Posted December 11, 2016 Share Posted December 11, 2016 15 minutes ago, cyclone77 said: MSP special on the new GFS. A fair amount of us do get some decent WAA snows on the 12z GFS though. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
buckeye Posted December 11, 2016 Share Posted December 11, 2016 45 minutes ago, buckeye said: ... It seems current trends in the MR to LR have been to see these wound up storm scenarios fall apart and become shadows of their previously modeled-selves in the short term. ... I hate when the gfs does this to me 984 over IA.... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted December 11, 2016 Author Share Posted December 11, 2016 Started a thread for next weekend https://www.americanwx.com/bb/topic/49353-december-16-18-winter-storm-threat/ Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Snowstorms Posted December 11, 2016 Share Posted December 11, 2016 Chances are growing further for a reprieve in the current pattern around December 22-24 and beyond. How long it lasts is questionable, but this would be a drastic change from the current Aleutian Ridge/-EPO pattern to an Aleutian Low/+EPO pattern. The ensembles show this breakdown nicely as the SE ridge builds and the cold air retreats towards far northern Canada and Alaska. Looks like a warm end to the month is on tap. A +EPO/WPO, -PNA, +NAO and +AO is a winter lovers nightmare. Such a similar occurrence (breakdown) happened in the notorious 07-08 winter lasting through the better part of January. Lets see! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ottawa Blizzard Posted December 12, 2016 Share Posted December 12, 2016 8 hours ago, Snowstorms said: Chances are growing further for a reprieve in the current pattern around December 22-24 and beyond. How long it lasts is questionable, but this would be a drastic change from the current Aleutian Ridge/-EPO pattern to an Aleutian Low/+EPO pattern. The ensembles show this breakdown nicely as the SE ridge builds and the cold air retreats towards far northern Canada and Alaska. Looks like a warm end to the month is on tap. A +EPO/WPO, -PNA, +NAO and +AO is a winter lovers nightmare. Such a similar occurrence (breakdown) happened in the notorious 07-08 winter lasting through the better part of January. Lets see! Recall, though, that 2007-2008 was a great year for snowfall in Toronto, Ottawa and Montreal. Let's just hope we don't get a flip similar to 1989-1990. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Snowstorms Posted December 13, 2016 Share Posted December 13, 2016 Latest Euro weeklies seem to agree with the pattern breakdown or relaxation as the EPO and WPO both go positive. Positive anomalies for the most part from around Christmas time till mid January. Now even though the accuracy rate is low beyond Week 2-3, they do show the Aleutian Ridge reestablishing itself and some ridging around Greenland near Mid January. Now that doesn't necessarily mean it'll be warm throughout. Storm track is still active through our region, so its just a matter of having enough cold air in the area for frozen precipitation. However, any cold shot that does present itself maybe transient. The coldest anomalies shift west towards Western North America for the time being. Lets see! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
UMB WX Posted December 13, 2016 Share Posted December 13, 2016 So when is the Grinch scheduled to arrive? We surely can't avoid him can we? New England has already pulled down the shades for a white Christmas. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
UMB WX Posted December 13, 2016 Share Posted December 13, 2016 Guess I should have read before posting and I'd have read Snowstorms answer to my beating around the bush Grinch visiting fears. O well. Off to a great start to winter especially having a sauna body of water to my east. 07/08 had some great meltdowns and I'd do it all over again. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted December 17, 2016 Author Share Posted December 17, 2016 Pretty interesting run of the GFS around day 10. Inverted trough in the central/eastern Gulf becomes a surface low that shoots almost due north toward Detroit. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jrad08 Posted December 17, 2016 Share Posted December 17, 2016 10 minutes ago, Hoosier said: Pretty interesting run of the GFS around day 10. Inverted trough in the central/eastern Gulf becomes a surface low that shoots almost due north toward Detroit. Reference the blizzard of 78 (25 Jan.) track... lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IWXwx Posted December 17, 2016 Share Posted December 17, 2016 32 minutes ago, Jrad08 said: Reference the blizzard of 78 (25 Jan.) track... lol I wasn't going to say anything and jinx it, but the cat's out of the bag. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jrad08 Posted December 17, 2016 Share Posted December 17, 2016 1 minute ago, IWXwx said: I wasn't going to say anything and jinx it, but the cat's out of the bag. Let's wait and see some consistency on the next few runs. If this does turn into anything we'll have to see the extent the low intensifies and how much cold air there is to work with. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted December 17, 2016 Author Share Posted December 17, 2016 Decent clipper type system showing up for midweek. Actually looks more like a Pacific system, so it may not be so starved for moisture. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Snowstorms Posted December 17, 2016 Share Posted December 17, 2016 5 minutes ago, Hoosier said: Decent clipper type system showing up for midweek. Actually looks more like a Pacific system, so it may not be so starved for moisture. SE Ridge also flexing its muscles as well. Doesn't seem like it will be anything significant, however vort maps argue against that. ECMWF also has something around this time-frame as does the GGEM. As it stands now, would be a 2-4" type event on the colder side of the system. Edit: A bit further out, but tremendous amounts of energy and strong jet-streak feeding moisture to a potential system around the 24th in the Gulf. Looks something worth watching over the next few days. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IWXwx Posted December 18, 2016 Share Posted December 18, 2016 17 hours ago, Hoosier said: Decent clipper type system showing up for midweek. Actually looks more like a Pacific system, so it may not be so starved for moisture. This morning's GFS doesn't do anything to buoy my hopes for this quasi clipper. I was hoping to see it do a little more digging. Still a producer for Northern MI and our ON posters. The end of the NAM run shows a similar track, but does carry much more precip with it, throwing some down our way. Is it being its usual overjuiced self or is it picking up on more Pacific moisture transport? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted December 18, 2016 Author Share Posted December 18, 2016 12z GFS and GGEM both have a nice looking storm on Christmas and into early next week. Let's see about the Euro. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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