Hoosier Posted November 19, 2016 Share Posted November 19, 2016 As in previous years, this thread will be for discussion of the pattern and longer range storm threats that are too far out to warrant a separate thread. Admittedly this thread right now is a bit of a placeholder as most of us aren't on the verge of descending into true winter, but there are a lot of model signals pointing toward some fun in December. In the nearer term, there looks to be a threat for some system snow in parts of the Lakes around midweek. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HillsdaleMIWeather Posted November 19, 2016 Share Posted November 19, 2016 The GFS has been hinting at a System SOMEWHERE in the subforum around December 3rd, meanwhile the mid week system has been slowly trending colder, it was progged in the mid 40s last night now it's forecasting mid 30s. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Indystorm Posted November 19, 2016 Share Posted November 19, 2016 And the 12z Nov. 19 GFS should provide some interesting weather in the 288/300 hr. range come Dec. 1 if model runs hold this far out in fantasy land. 984 mb low over Twin Cities should provide all sorts of fun from winter to svr with a powerful jet in place. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted November 19, 2016 Author Share Posted November 19, 2016 2 minutes ago, Indystorm said: And the 12z Nov. 19 GFS should provide some interesting weather in the 288/300 hr. range come Dec. 1 if model runs hold this far out in fantasy land. 884 mb low over Twin Cities should provide all sorts of fun from winter to svr with a powerful jet in place. I might evacuate for an 884 mb low. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Indystorm Posted November 19, 2016 Share Posted November 19, 2016 Oops! 984 instead of 884. Ha! But at least the jet is powerful at both 300 and 500 levels. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
hlcater Posted November 19, 2016 Share Posted November 19, 2016 hasn't dec. 1-3rdish always been the favorite for the arrival of cold on the long range and ens? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jonger Posted November 19, 2016 Share Posted November 19, 2016 16 minutes ago, NWLinnCountyIA said: hasn't dec. 1-3rdish always been the favorite for the arrival of cold on the long range and ens? Yes and this system that is passing by has been indicated for almost 15 days. Models are getting pretty damn accurate. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IWXwx Posted November 19, 2016 Share Posted November 19, 2016 35 minutes ago, Jonger said: Yes and this system that is passing by has been indicated for almost 15 days. Models are getting pretty damn accurate. They have? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cyclone77 Posted November 19, 2016 Share Posted November 19, 2016 21 minutes ago, IWXwx said: They have? Haha! Well played sir. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
hlcater Posted November 19, 2016 Share Posted November 19, 2016 32 minutes ago, IWXwx said: They have? lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chambana Posted November 19, 2016 Share Posted November 19, 2016 The first winter storm of the season definitely sparked the sub. Nice to see multiple new posts hourly. December of 83' plllllease Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowlover2 Posted November 20, 2016 Share Posted November 20, 2016 End of November/start of December looking interesting. 0z GFS continues to show a strong west GLC while the 0z Euro appears to show a strong storm but farther south and likely east. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HillsdaleMIWeather Posted November 20, 2016 Share Posted November 20, 2016 Euro says Hi! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IWXwx Posted November 20, 2016 Share Posted November 20, 2016 The GFS shows some agreement, albeit slower and a weaker surface low. Will be a time period to keep an eye on. Signals have been there as previously discussed. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LoveSN+ Posted November 20, 2016 Share Posted November 20, 2016 With the time of year, this definitely favors a western Great Lakes cutter. Would be nice to see the low go a little further south and east though. It's almost important of course to get that upper Midwest snow cover built and storms like this would do that. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HillsdaleMIWeather Posted November 21, 2016 Share Posted November 21, 2016 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted November 21, 2016 Author Share Posted November 21, 2016 Just a heads up for folks who have Weatherbell... don't post the ECMWF maps. Got a little lax with that rule. Exception is if an employee from Weatherbell posts something, feel free to share that. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted November 21, 2016 Author Share Posted November 21, 2016 Not sure about that system around the 29th, but the good news is that the pattern is looking fairly active with enough cold air around so that these systems should have a wintry component. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HillsdaleMIWeather Posted November 21, 2016 Share Posted November 21, 2016 7 minutes ago, Hoosier said: Just a heads up for folks who have Weatherbell... don't post the ECMWF maps. Got a little lax with that rule. Exception is if an employee from Weatherbell posts something, feel free to share that. I know! JB posted that one on his Twitter so I just reposted Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LoveSN+ Posted November 21, 2016 Share Posted November 21, 2016 Certainly lots of cutters in the medium range guidance. Liking that signal early, as they should start to slide SE as official winter begins. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowlover2 Posted November 21, 2016 Share Posted November 21, 2016 If 0z GFS continues to show this then i'll start to get excited. Hard to on an 18z run. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted November 21, 2016 Author Share Posted November 21, 2016 22 minutes ago, snowlover2 said: If 0z GFS continues to show this then i'll start to get excited. Hard to on an 18z run. 9-10 days out. Don't do it man! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HillsdaleMIWeather Posted November 21, 2016 Share Posted November 21, 2016 30 minutes ago, snowlover2 said: If 0z GFS continues to show this then i'll start to get excited. Hard to on an 18z run. That event would be such a near miss, assuming a 10 day out 18Z GFS run somehow is right. (It's not) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted November 22, 2016 Author Share Posted November 22, 2016 00z GFS again rapidly deepens the system around the 29th as it moves through the region. Not a lot of cold air though. The track of the system behind it may be influenced by the first one unless more separation can occur. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HillsdaleMIWeather Posted November 22, 2016 Share Posted November 22, 2016 GFS still showing lots of chances for storms in the mid range, of course it keeps flip flopping temps and it won't catch onto the pattern change for awhile Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted November 22, 2016 Author Share Posted November 22, 2016 Long range definitely looks messy. Too many moving parts to really get a good handle on things... iow, what else is new. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Justin Posted November 23, 2016 Share Posted November 23, 2016 Right now I'm thinking chances are probably better for most of us at the end of the 1st week in December and going forward. The big system on the 28-29th likely will leave some confluence or a system that tries to follow would get sheared out. The trailing system could certainly lay out a small, light swath of snow towards the Southern Midwest but I wouldn't count on it. Most of us in the Great Lakes and mid Mississippi Valley look much better around the 7th-9th of December going forward. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HillsdaleMIWeather Posted November 23, 2016 Share Posted November 23, 2016 laughing at the long range GFS, it has no clue right now Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chicago Storm Posted November 23, 2016 Share Posted November 23, 2016 laughing at the long range GFS, it has no clue right nowOh yea? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted November 23, 2016 Author Share Posted November 23, 2016 Who knows if this will hold but the trend right now is toward a more intense secondary/frontal wave riding up from the south around the 29th-30th after the initial system ejects into the upper Midwest. Cold air generally lags behind though so most of the precip is rain. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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