ULL, up slope snow LES, Squalls winds 11-20-22

[powderfreak]

14 minutes ago, eyewall said:

Ground is now white here in the CPV with occasionally MDT snow. Wind has picked up considerably and the temp has dropped as well. 

Flow is really blocked right now.  You may do well this evening.  The snow band has moved away from even the west slopes.

[powderfreak]

Some photos from the mountain.

Winter Wonderland up there.

 

 

[CoastalWx]

Models did well showing that second weaker band near and west of ORH hills extending to NE CT. 

[powderfreak]

BTV ripping heavy snow...should be interesting to watch this evening if that stays blocked.  It'll keep the band of precip over them instead of working into the mountains.  The mountains are in a lull now until the entire column can go deep layer NW.  Right now its NE winds above 6,000ft and WNW winds down near the surface.  Until the wind above the ridgelines can go NW, the BTV area could do real well for a time.

 

METAR KBTV 202100Z AUTO 30012KT +SN FG VV006 00/M01 A2928

[eyewall]

Pounding here now for sure

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[snowgeek]

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[dendrite]

35F and still spitting liquid.

[powderfreak]

Woodford, VT now up to 13.5" as of 4:30pm...the southern VT highlands are going to get 18".

[eyewall]

37 minutes ago, powderfreak said:

BTV ripping heavy snow...should be interesting to watch this evening if that stays blocked.  It'll keep the band of precip over them instead of working into the mountains.  The mountains are in a lull now until the entire column can go deep layer NW.  Right now its NE winds above 6,000ft and WNW winds down near the surface.  Until the wind above the ridgelines can go NW, the BTV area could do real well for a time.

 

METAR KBTV 202100Z AUTO 30012KT +SN FG VV006 00/M01 A2928

I don't think it is 1/4 mile now but still snowing. That burst dropped quick 1-2 inches in the area (closer to 2 towards Williston). We will see how long we can hold on.

[ORH_wxman]

15 minutes ago, powderfreak said:

Woodford, VT now up to 13.5" as of 4:30pm...the southern VT highlands are going to get 18".

RPM gives them another 12-15 after 5pm. If that's right then 18 will be on the low side. 

[moneypitmike]

16 minutes ago, powderfreak said:

Woodford, VT now up to 13.5" as of 4:30pm...the southern VT highlands are going to get 18".

That's awesome.  Between the surprise several inches a few weeks back and this WNE special, maybe--just maybe--we'll see a return to winters the way they're supposed to be.

[powderfreak]

Just now, ORH_wxman said:

RPM gives them another 12-15 after 5pm. If that's right then 18 will be on the low side. 

What RPM is that?  A local model or is that a NCEP one?

The HRRR and RAP are pretty solid too.

[Ginx snewx]

32 minutes ago, snowgeek said:

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Love it

[snowgeek]

Love it

Puppy first winter sucked (last year). Now she's livin the dream!


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[nzucker]

6 minutes ago, eyewall said:

I don't think it is 1/4 mile now but still snowing. That burst dropped quick 1-2 inches in the area (closer to 2 towards Williston). We will see how long we can hold on.

Champlain Valley convergence effect on WNW surface winds with NE winds just above the deck. Saw this a few times at Middlebury esp in the Jan 3, 2010 event that dropped 35" in BTV and 24" at Midd.

[ORH_wxman]

2 minutes ago, powderfreak said:

What RPM is that?  A local model or is that a NCEP one?

The HRRR and RAP are pretty solid too.

WSI RPM model. It's been performing really well. It crushed Mitch's hood too with over a foot when other guidance was still a bit more moderate. 

[powderfreak]

6 minutes ago, nzucker said:

Champlain Valley convergence effect on WNW surface winds with NE winds just above the deck. Saw this a few times at Middlebury esp in the Jan 3, 2010 event that dropped 35" in BTV and 24" at Midd.

Not to be a stickler (haha) but I think the CPV Convergence is defined in the local BTV study as due northerly flow in the lowest few thousand feet like the backside of a departing nor'easter. 

This is purely a blocked orographic flow precip this evening.  You wouldn't get the Champlain Valley Convergence with due westerly winds in the low levels as the VAD shows below.  Its when its due northerly and coming out of Quebec and then gets funneled between the mountains. 

This is just very blocked because of the turning with height...the air is piling up into the mountains (but can't get over the mountains because above the ridgeline the winds are NNE and pushing the precip back westward) and as that air piles up, the lift starts working westward with no where to go.  The mountains up here won't see much until the whole column can go deep layer NW. 

[grambo]

3 minutes ago, nzucker said:

Champlain Valley convergence effect on WNW surface winds with NE winds just above the deck. Saw this a few times at Middlebury esp in the Jan 3, 2010 event that dropped 35" in BTV and 24" at Midd.

Yes I remember waking up to go plowing around the BTV area and 30" out of those 35" had fallen in the 6 or 7 hours I had slept.

The main difference between the current system and that event is that temps were much much lower (teens if I recall correctly) and the snow ratios were insanely high- I was able to easily walk through all 35" of that fluff...

[ma blizzard]

first flakes of the year! 

[nzucker]

3 minutes ago, powderfreak said:

Not to be a stickler (haha) but I think the CPV Convergence is defined in the local BTV study as due northerly flow in the lowest few thousand feet like the backside of a departing nor'easter. 

This is purely a blocked orographic flow precip this evening.  You wouldn't get the Champlain Valley Convergence with due westerly winds in the low levels as the VAD shows below.  Its when its due northerly and coming out of Quebec and then gets funneled between the mountains. 

This is just very blocked because of the turning with height...the air is piling up into the mountains (but can't get over the mountains because above the ridgeline the winds are NNE and pushing the precip back westward) and as that air piles up, the lift starts working westward with no where to go.  The mountains up here won't see much until the whole column can go deep layer NW. 

 

Yes, the winds in the 2010 event were more northerly with a rotting ocean low to the east of ME and lots of low and mid-level RH hanging around allowing to topography to take control as the main storm lifted east.

This is a different type of convergence though because WNW winds and NE winds are meeting near the area of the Champlain Valley. They are in a good spot because the NE winds are high enough to push the precip back over the Spine. So I think it's not the classic Champlain Valley band but a similar phenomenon involving topographic and shear induced banding on the backside of the low.

As you say, as the flow turns true NW in all parts of the atmosphere, that band will move east, leaving the CPV behind and snowing itself out over the Greens. Should be good ratios with 850s near -10C.

[Amped]

It really looks like the Taconics are getting crushed on radar.

[eduggs]

I just saw the ALY PNS and a report from Taborton, my old stomping ground of 15" as of 1pm.  They're going to get 2' up there.  That's more than I saw in that location all of last winter!

[dendrite]

34.8F -SHSN. A little less impressive than to my west.

[nzucker]

6 minutes ago, grambo said:

Yes I remember waking up to go plowing around the BTV area and 30" out of those 35" had fallen in the 6 or 7 hours I had slept.

The main difference between the current system and that event is that temps were much much lower (teens if I recall correctly) and the snow ratios were insanely high- I was able to easily walk through all 35" of that fluff...

Yes, amazing storm. I was able to drive through 3ft on snow in a small Mazda as it was such fluff.

As Powderfreak pointed out, this event is different in two ways: First, the flow is WNW at surface instead of due N, which will weaken the CPV convergence. It won't last nearly as long with this wind direction in the Valley. Second, as you say, it's much warmer this time as it's 11/20 not 1/3...ratios won't be as good as that pure Champlain powder.

[eyewall]

2 minutes ago, nzucker said:

Yes, amazing storm. I was able to drive through 3ft on snow in a small Mazda as it was such fluff.

As Powderfreak pointed out, this event is different in two ways: First, the flow is WNW at surface instead of due N, which will weaken the CPV convergence. It won't last nearly as long with this wind direction in the Valley. Second, as you say, it's much warmer this time as it's 11/20 not 1/3...ratios won't be as good as that pure Champlain powder.

Yeah there is no way this would be anything close to that but eeking out 3 inches would be good

 

 

[wxmanmitch]

Snow has lessened slightly but still coming down at a good rate. Froude #s appear to be dropping a little again as the band seems to be shifting west slightly again.

I may actually get more here than up at my VT plot as it's a little east of the crest and the radar echoes have been weaker up there. I will go out and measure in a little, but we're over a foot.

[eduggs]

6 minutes ago, eduggs said:

I just saw the ALY PNS and a report from Taborton, my old stomping ground of 15" as of 1pm.  They're going to get 2' up there.  That's more than I saw in that location all of last winter!

Actually, from a picture I just saw, that was 15" OTG at 1pm.

[#NoPoles]

5 minutes ago, wxmanmitch said:

Snow has lessened slightly but still coming down at a good rate. Froude #s appear to be dropping a little again as the band seems to be shifting west slightly again.

I may actually get more here than up at my VT plot as it's a little east of the crest and the radar echoes have been weaker up there. I will go out and measure in a little, but we're over a foot.

Congrats, Mitch! That's awesome! take lots of pics, I bet the trees look awesome! any reports of power outages?

[Amped]

5 minutes ago, wxmanmitch said:

Snow has lessened slightly but still coming down at a good rate. Froude #s appear to be dropping a little again as the band seems to be shifting west slightly again.

I may actually get more here than up at my VT plot as it's a little east of the crest and the radar echoes have been weaker up there. I will go out and measure in a little, but we're over a foot.

Odd it's actually sinking southwest towards POU

[ORH_wxman]

11 minutes ago, wxmanmitch said:

Snow has lessened slightly but still coming down at a good rate. Froude #s appear to be dropping a little again as the band seems to be shifting west slightly again.

I may actually get more here than up at my VT plot as it's a little east of the crest and the radar echoes have been weaker up there. I will go out and measure in a little, but we're over a foot.

There must be a huge difference from east side of town near Searsburg vs the west side on the other side of the spine. That west side must be getting destroyed. RPM model actually showed a sharp cutoff too near the crest.