Jump to content

  • Member Statistics

    17,702
    Total Members
    7,904
    Most Online
    Climax
    Newest Member
    Climax
    Joined

ULL, up slope snow LES, Squalls winds 11-20-22

Ginx snewx

By Ginx snewx,
in New England

Recommended Posts

qg_omega

qg_omega

Posted
Posted
1 hour ago, ORH_wxman said:

18z GFS triples down again on the NW NY snowfall...almost 3.5 inches of QPF all snow. I am having trouble envisioning that, but I'm becoming more intrigued with each model run. Euro is nowhere close to this amount though, so I stay skeptical until more evidence comes in:

 

Nov19_18z_GFS_2016.png

I don't understand it that's NW of the true elevated terrain

Link to comment
Share on other sites
  • Replies 510
  • Created
  • Last Reply
dendrite

dendrite

Posted
Posted
1 hour ago, Ginx snewx said:

Look at the cloud fraction products .  inflow from Bermuda up around Nova Scotia over the top and back around developing an explosive CCB. Impressive look but IDK if it's that dynamic 

There will be a lot of snow up there. I'm just like everyone else in questioning that excessive QPF Monday morning over the St Lawrence valley. The TROWAL later tomorrow is probably real.

Link to comment
Share on other sites
Ginx snewx

Ginx snewx

Posted
  • Author
Posted
1 minute ago, dendrite said:

There will be a lot of snow up there. I'm just like everyone else in questioning that excessive QPF Monday morning over the St Lawrence valley. The TROWAL later tomorrow is probably real.

Tricky situations with such a deep dynamic system .  WRF suite is crazy in SVT and has multiple rounds of Squalls pretty much everywhere .  I am psyched to see how this evolves. As you know one of my favorite setups, not IMBY but in the NE. I expect some surprises like maybe NW CT, your area too. Uninformed Peeps after today especially  are going to head to work Monday AM with a dumbfounded look

 

Link to comment
Share on other sites
powderfreak

powderfreak

Posted
Posted
13 minutes ago, Ginx snewx said:

Tricky situations with such a deep dynamic system .  WRF suite is crazy in SVT and has multiple rounds of Squalls pretty much everywhere .  I am psyched to see how this evolves. As you know one of my favorite setups, not IMBY but in the NE. I expect some surprises like maybe NW CT, your area too. Uninformed Peeps after today especially  are going to head to work Monday AM with a dumbfounded look

 

I like the west slopes of the Berks and SVT in this event more than usual.  The location of the surface low and closed mid-level lows are very favorable for them.  Its a little too SE for my liking of a real high end event up here (I still like 8-14" for the ski resort though by Tuesday 12z) as our climo best location is near FVE instead of just north of Jay Peak.  But that puts SVT and the Berks in some real good cyclonic deep layer NW flow...and we get into it later on as the whole system lifts northeast.  So our best snows may come quite a bit later, like Monday night could be surprisingly good up here after a slow start.

Link to comment
Share on other sites
powderfreak

powderfreak

Posted
Posted
27 minutes ago, dendrite said:

There will be a lot of snow up there. I'm just like everyone else in questioning that excessive QPF Monday morning over the St Lawrence valley. The TROWAL later tomorrow is probably real.

Its interesting because early on the QPF matches where I think it would be.  Its later on that the GFS rips out like 12 hours of 1"/hr snows over the St Lawrence Valley.

Here's a 12 hour period from 18z Sunday through 6z Monday...this stuff looks pretty decent but man that's a moist TROWAL zone.

Watertown/ART and Tug Hill area gets like 1.5" QPF in 12 hours as snow.  That should be interesting to watch. 

Also, one can see how the low pressure location puts SVT in the cross-hairs for a good orographic event...some model runs like 24-36 hours ago were a little more NE and put us into the sweet spot which is how the high-end events happen.  We still will get ripped for a while but that low location is a little less favorable as it then has to migrate NE and weakens a bit before we get into the best upslope.

gfs_pr6_slp_t850_neng_6.png

gfs_pr6_slp_t850_neng_7.png

 

Link to comment
Share on other sites
Ginx snewx

Ginx snewx

Posted
  • Author
Posted
1 hour ago, Ginx snewx said:

Tricky situations with such a deep dynamic system .  WRF suite is crazy in SVT and has multiple rounds of Squalls pretty much everywhere .  I am psyched to see how this evolves. As you know one of my favorite setups, not IMBY but in the NE. I expect some surprises like maybe NW CT, your area too. Uninformed Peeps after today especially  are going to head to work Monday AM with a dumbfounded look

 

HRRR the Mastiff!

IMG_20161119_211618.jpg

Link to comment
Share on other sites
Spanks45

Spanks45

Posted
Posted
12 minutes ago, Ginx snewx said:

Why the worry ? j/k I expect surprises 

Surprises are the best part, as long as they are good. That is why I was posting in the banter on the conditions in northeast MD and DE. It wasn't suppose to be 73 to 36 with sleet and snow that quickly. Sitting here in central Jersey 45 with no precipitation, getting windy though

Link to comment
Share on other sites
wxmanmitch

wxmanmitch

Posted
Posted

Both 00z GFS and 4-km NAM are going 12" or so around PSF, so the suspense builds. This looks to be one of those rare setups where the stars align perfectly and we get a long-lasting, warning-level upslope dump down here. Even if half of those amounts verified, I'd be impressed. It's much tougher to get significant snows of this nature down here than it is up by PF since our topographic barrier isn't as high.

The last time we had a warning level upslope event was on 1/13/12 when we had 9" behind an arctic front after a SWFE.

 

 

Link to comment
Share on other sites
CoastalWx

CoastalWx

Posted
Posted
7 minutes ago, Ginx snewx said:

Remember those who made fun of Siprells AFD?

Damaging winds and winter weather headlines for the region 5 days out? Yeah it deserves that. Its hitting areas that are pronged to get snow. The forcing was always best in western areas. I don't see a big change. 

Link to comment
Share on other sites
Ginx snewx

Ginx snewx

Posted
  • Author
Posted
4 minutes ago, CoastalWx said:

Damaging winds and winter weather headlines for the region 5 days out? Yeah it deserves that. Its hitting areas that are pronged to get snow. The forcing was always best in western areas. I don't see a big change. 

He didn't either , I see nothing wrong with this  

Could be contending with winter weather hazards in the form of snow.
Higher confidence over N/W portions of CT and MA at this time. As to
damaging winds, hazards seem more likely given the system undergoing
occlusion beneath a negative-tilted trough, drawing down colder air
rearward allowing for steep lapse rates possibly as high as H5-7.
Would be looking at all of S New England with regards to impact
Link to comment
Share on other sites
qg_omega

qg_omega

Posted
Posted
9 minutes ago, CoastalWx said:

Damaging winds and winter weather headlines for the region 5 days out? Yeah it deserves that. Its hitting areas that are pronged to get snow. The forcing was always best in western areas. I don't see a big change. 

NYC and southern NJ were not forecast to get snow, we even have accumulations on the NJ shore

Link to comment
Share on other sites
CoastalWx

CoastalWx

Posted
Posted
1 minute ago, qg_omega said:

NYC and southern NJ were not forecast to get snow, we even have accumulations on the NJ shore

I'm just speaking up here though. The hi res got more bullish down there yesterday. But the forcing was always better there. However this looks a bit better down there from what I saw yesterday. I Have not looked since. 

Link to comment
Share on other sites
qg_omega

qg_omega

Posted
Posted
Just now, CoastalWx said:

I'm just speaking up here though. The hi res got more bullish down there yesterday. But the forcing was always better there. However this looks a bit better down there from what I saw yesterday. I Have not looked since. 

yes they did, however they were ignored by most

Link to comment
Share on other sites
tavwtby

tavwtby

Posted
Posted

sitting right at freezing temp and DP, nice solid coating on everything, and people laughedat me yesterday when i said don't be surprised if theres a couple/few inches of snow tomorrow. I need 2" to equal a fifth of my total from last year, which was an all time low, at least as far back as I found records, next closest was I believe 32-33, without looking it up, but I beat the low by a mile...off to good start this year.

Link to comment
Share on other sites
moneypitmike

moneypitmike

Posted
Posted

Does anyone know if where the rain/snow line is up in GC?  I'm in the WWA, but I can't see 2-6" near my hood--that would need to be at places with elevation.  Lower level temps are not bad though, 33* at the Pit after having dipped a bit lower earlier.

 

Bummed I'm missing the event thought--the winds sure look impressive.

 

 

Link to comment
Share on other sites

Archived

This topic is now archived and is closed to further replies.

Go to topic listing

  • Recently Browsing   0 members

    • No registered users viewing this page.
×
×
  • Create New...