ULL, up slope snow LES, Squalls winds 11-20-22

[CoastalWx]

The west slopes of the Berks could go nuts near dawn as the low develops and height crash there with west wind assist it looks like a few hours of heavy snow perhaps as this happens. 

[moneypitmike]

3 minutes ago, CoastalWx said:

The west slopes of the Berks could go nuts near dawn as the low develops and height crash there with west wind assist it looks like a few hours of heavy snow perhaps as this happens. 

Florida, ftw.

[CoastalWx]

10 minutes ago, J.Spin said:

 

Irrespective of Froude Numbers, it feels like situations where the flow is directly from the north tend to be a bit weaker here.  Flow directly from the north is of course not as optimal for any of us in this immediate area relative to northwest, but I’m not sure how direct north flow plays out for PF at his location.  It may be somewhat of a subtlety since we seem to do OK from a lot of directions, but I’ll let PF speak to what he’s observed for our locations when he’s been paying attention to the flow.

Thanks. I was just curious. What do you think about your spot for this? Hopefully a good 8" I would guess. But I could see it being more too given how favorable the parameters look. Enjoy it. 

[HoarfrostHubb]

Just hoping for a few minutes of blowing, swirling flakes here.  Maybe some mulch gets covered.  Ushering in a more seasonable few days is all I really expect.

steps

[CoastalWx]

5 minutes ago, HoarfrostHubb said:

Just hoping for a few minutes of blowing, swirling flakes here.  Maybe some mulch gets covered.  Ushering in a more seasonable few days is all I really expect.

steps

A lot of spots will see flakes I think as good mid level RH wraps around. A good sign to get at least flakes on NW flow. Some spots will have ground whiteners too. 

[backedgeapproaching]

Watch up for SVT. The text says potential for 7+" at 1000'+. Maps say more like that potential is for 1500'+. 

 

...WINTER STORM WATCH IN EFFECT FROM LATE TONIGHT THROUGH MONDAY
EVENING...

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN ALBANY HAS ISSUED A WINTER STORM
WATCH...WHICH IS IN EFFECT FROM LATE TONIGHT THROUGH MONDAY
EVENING.

* LOCATIONS...THE SOUTHERN GREEN MOUNTAINS OF VERMONT...INCLUDING
  BENNINGTON AND WESTERN WINDHAM COUNTIES.

* HAZARD TYPES...HEAVY SNOW AND BLOWING SNOW.

* SNOW ACCUMULATIONS...7 OR MORE INCHES POSSIBLE...MAINLY FOR
  ELEVATIONS ABOVE 1000 FEET.

* TIMING...SNOW WILL DEVELOP LATE TONIGHT IN WAKE OF A COLD FRONT
  PASSAGE. THE SNOW WILL BECOME HEAVY AT TIMES FROM SUNDAY MORNING
  LASTING THROUGH MUCH OF MONDAY.

* IMPACTS...POTENTIALLY DANGEROUS TRAVEL CONDITIONS DUE TO SNOW
  COVERED ROADS AND NEAR ZERO VISIBILITY AT TIMES DUE TO HEAVY
  SNOW AND BLOWING SNOW.

 

[moneypitmike]

9 minutes ago, backedgeapproaching said:

Watch up for SVT. The text says potential for 7+" at 1000'+. Maps says more like that potential is for 1500'+. 

 

...WINTER STORM WATCH IN EFFECT FROM LATE TONIGHT THROUGH MONDAY
EVENING...

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN ALBANY HAS ISSUED A WINTER STORM
WATCH...WHICH IS IN EFFECT FROM LATE TONIGHT THROUGH MONDAY
EVENING.

* LOCATIONS...THE SOUTHERN GREEN MOUNTAINS OF VERMONT...INCLUDING
  BENNINGTON AND WESTERN WINDHAM COUNTIES.

* HAZARD TYPES...HEAVY SNOW AND BLOWING SNOW.

* SNOW ACCUMULATIONS...7 OR MORE INCHES POSSIBLE...MAINLY FOR
  ELEVATIONS ABOVE 1000 FEET.

* TIMING...SNOW WILL DEVELOP LATE TONIGHT IN WAKE OF A COLD FRONT
  PASSAGE. THE SNOW WILL BECOME HEAVY AT TIMES FROM SUNDAY MORNING
  LASTING THROUGH MUCH OF MONDAY.

* IMPACTS...POTENTIALLY DANGEROUS TRAVEL CONDITIONS DUE TO SNOW
  COVERED ROADS AND NEAR ZERO VISIBILITY AT TIMES DUE TO HEAVY
  SNOW AND BLOWING SNOW.

 

 So close, yet so far.  P/C here is for 1".

[backedgeapproaching]

2 minutes ago, moneypitmike said:

 So close, yet so far.  P/C here is for 1".

Yep,  though some elevated mountain towns in SVT might be at 20"+ for a seasonal total after this event.(Which would be close to half of their season total from 15-16..lol). Some nice early season stat padding.

[mreaves]

It's going to be almost 60F today. The ground temp is going to kill us. 

[powderfreak]

3 hours ago, CoastalWx said:

Is there a flow where Jspin does not do as well as PFs condo location or is he in pure weeenieville. I'm interested to see if PF can pull WSW at his place, because I'm sure Jspin will. Enjoy the event! 

No.  Occasionally we can do better but not often, its usually in the smaller events (like some snow showers bring 3-5" here and J.Spin gets 2") but those events happen all winter long up and down the Spine.  There's usually one spot that'll do a little better for whatever reason.  But the big time events usually default to climo especially over long duration.

I doubt we see true warning snow anywhere outside of the mountains given the duration (going to be hard to get 6" in 12 hours I think)... the ski resorts should do that.  I'm just hoping we can cover the grass, lol.

Its all about proximity to the Spine crest.  Myself and J.Spin relative to the terrain...he's just right there in the "fall out" zone of the Spine clouds.  Here in Stowe the two areas that are similar to his in terms of snowfall and higher snowfall once you get to the base of the ski resort just because its 1,500ft and not 500ft.  As I drive a few miles up the road to work, the snowfall can literally either add an inch every mile or it can just straight double and triple as you head towards the crest.

A spot I'd love to live that's a weenie spot in Stowe is Nebraska Valley in the SW part of town.  It goes up to Lake Mansfield Trout Club (but that road only maxes at 1,000ft or so) and is in this narrow valley (very fertile farming but very short growing season) where I have a few friends that live.  They get a ton of snow with almost no real elevation change from where I live.  Its just that they are now "in the zone of influence" of the peaks and ridges around them.  I'll have 2-3" and drive the 10 minutes SW up into the Nebraska Valley and my friend will have 6" of cotton candy that fell without a breath of wind. 

You get into those narrow lower elevation spots inside the Spine and its just dead calm like all the time.  They radiate like no ones business in there too.  Nebraska Valley Road...its just another one of those local micro-climates where surrounding terrain makes the difference rather than your actual elevation.  In most places the general rule is you go up in elevation your snowfall increases...that's true around here but its more important to get yourself as close to the Spine axis as possible.  You'll get the QPF the mountains get and if you are in a low elevation spot around the Spine its often dead calm and great for just days and days of stacking up dendrites.

 

[powderfreak]

17 hours ago, ORH_wxman said:

 

It'll be interesting to watch. I def think they'll get like 6"+ because of the synoptic TROWAL, but I'd be skeptical of these 20"+ amounts the GFS is throwing out at them, lol. I'd expect higher amounts more toward SLK obviously once you push that air up nearly 2,000 feet. It should be a "fun" upslope event to follow even for those of us not in it because there's a ton of synoptic moisture wrapped around the back side...so it won't just be confined to really narrow areas.

The GFS is still doing it...its been so consistent in the St Lawrence River Valley for 2 days now.

I cannot figure it out though...the orographic forcing shouldn't be in the river valley.  Its even got Montreal with like 1.6-1.8" of QPF where other models have very little.  It wants to paint a huge area of 12-24" snows across northern NY and southern Canada.  I just can't see how Massena, NY gets 25" of snow out of this but the GFS has some incredible precip rates. 

[CoastalWx]

45 minutes ago, powderfreak said:

No.  Occasionally we can do better but not often, its usually in the smaller events (like some snow showers bring 3-5" here and J.Spin gets 2") but those events happen all winter long up and down the Spine.  There's usually one spot that'll do a little better for whatever reason.  But the big time events usually default to climo especially over long duration.

I doubt we see true warning snow anywhere outside of the mountains given the duration (going to be hard to get 6" in 12 hours I think)... the ski resorts should do that.  I'm just hoping we can cover the grass, lol.

Its all about proximity to the Spine crest.  Myself and J.Spin relative to the terrain...he's just right there in the "fall out" zone of the Spine clouds.  Here in Stowe the two areas that are similar to his in terms of snowfall and higher snowfall once you get to the base of the ski resort just because its 1,500ft and not 500ft.  As I drive a few miles up the road to work, the snowfall can literally either add an inch every mile or it can just straight double and triple as you head towards the crest.

A spot I'd love to live that's a weenie spot in Stowe is Nebraska Valley in the SW part of town.  It goes up to Lake Mansfield Trout Club (but that road only maxes at 1,000ft or so) and is in this narrow valley (very fertile farming but very short growing season) where I have a few friends that live.  They get a ton of snow with almost no real elevation change from where I live.  Its just that they are now "in the zone of influence" of the peaks and ridges around them.  I'll have 2-3" and drive the 10 minutes SW up into the Nebraska Valley and my friend will have 6" of cotton candy that fell without a breath of wind. 

You get into those narrow lower elevation spots inside the Spine and its just dead calm like all the time.  They radiate like no ones business in there too.  Nebraska Valley Road...its just another one of those local micro-climates where surrounding terrain makes the difference rather than your actual elevation.  In most places the general rule is you go up in elevation your snowfall increases...that's true around here but its more important to get yourself as close to the Spine axis as possible.  You'll get the QPF the mountains get and if you are in a low elevation spot around the Spine its often dead calm and great for just days and days of stacking up dendrites.

 

Cool. Nice summary. I really meant more of the 6-8" totals....not necessarily actual criteria met in 12hrs...but anyways should be awesome there. Enjoy!

[powderfreak]

22 minutes ago, CoastalWx said:

Cool. Nice summary. I really meant more of the 6-8" totals....not necessarily actual criteria met in 12hrs...but anyways should be awesome there. Enjoy!

12z GFS was definitely warmer for the first half...took a little while to cool 925-950 temps.  Almost like a 12-18 hour delay.

[wxmanmitch]

I'm liking the high res NAM for this one as it does the best job of capturing the terrain features. It has even given my neck of the woods 2-4, 3-5 inches for several runs now with a big dump above 2K in S VT. Someone up there around Stamford, Woodford, Searsburg, Glastenbury, and Somerset walks away with 12-18" if this scenario verifies. I've found the high res NAM to do pretty well with these events. The 12z GFS is likely overdone for IMBY, but perhaps underdone above 2K in S VT since it doesn't have the resolution as the 4 km NAM.

We probably get an initial burst tomorrow morning behind the FROPA that produces a quick 1-2" of paste here (3-4" up high?) before a break. The upslope probably kicks in later tomorrow afternoon or evening and lasts into Monday.

 

[wxeyeNH]

3 hours ago, mreaves said:

It's going to be almost 60F today. The ground temp is going to kill us. 

Mreaves.   Remember I accumulated 3" at 33F on Memorial Day weekend a few years back.  Low sun angle tomorrow.  So not all hope is lost with fairly marginal temps.

[RUNNAWAYICEBERG]

cool stuff PF. good luck to the north.

[mreaves]

30 minutes ago, wxeyeNH said:

Mreaves.   Remember I accumulated 3" at 33F on Memorial Day weekend a few years back.  Low sun angle tomorrow.  So not all hope is lost with fairly marginal temps.

Haha. I was just kidding. Trying to poke the hornet's nest.  

[powderfreak]

1 hour ago, wxeyeNH said:

Mreaves.   Remember I accumulated 3" at 33F on Memorial Day weekend a few years back.  Low sun angle tomorrow.  So not all hope is lost with fairly marginal temps.

Haha it's a throw back to that discussion weeks ago.

You had thundersnow and 3"/hr...that'll stick on top of an oven at that rate lol.

[powderfreak]

Still hard to believe hiking around in shorts and a t-shirt at 50-60F even at the summits today, that there's a Winter Storm Warning for the mountain I'm standing on.  It's like September weather except there are no leaves.  

Welcome to New England.  

[Ginx snewx]

6 minutes ago, powderfreak said:

Haha it's a throw back to that discussion weeks ago.

You had thundersnow and 3"/hr...that'll stick on top of an oven at that rate lol.

Lol a Met from Colorado actually blocked me on Twitter after he said his 81 degrees on Monday meant the snow would not stick the next day due to warm ground .  All I said was rates determine that. It's a fallacy constantly said. The next day hundreds  of accidents ocurred due to snow covered roads, wonder how many of them were somehow related to that online air Met saying the snow would melt on contact with roads

[powderfreak]

19 minutes ago, Ginx snewx said:

Lol a Met from Colorado actually blocked me on Twitter after he said his 81 degrees on Monday meant the snow would not stick the next day due to warm ground .  All I said was rates determine that. It's a fallacy constantly said. The next day hundreds  of accidents ocurred due to snow covered roads, wonder how many of them were somehow related to that online air Met saying the snow would melt on contact with roads

Yeah I agree it's mis-used but it's all rare dependent.  If I were to use it, the assumption is you're expecting low rates.  Thundersnow is much different than 1/4" per hour -SN.  The take away from our old discussion was there are better ways to communicate it...or at least say, I think the warm ground will preclude much accumulation due to slow fall rates.

And lol at people blocking on Twitter...gotta be able to take criticism or at least have a reasonable dialog...if not, maybe social media isn't for that guy ha.

[ORH_wxman]

11 minutes ago, powderfreak said:

Yeah I agree it's mis-used but it's all rare dependent.  If I were to use it, the assumption is you're expecting low rates.  Thundersnow is much different than 1/4" per hour -SN.  The take away from our old discussion was there are better ways to communicate it...or at least say, I think the warm ground will preclude much accumulation due to slow fall rates.

And lol at people blocking on Twitter...gotta be able to take criticism or at least have a reasonable dialog...if not, maybe social media isn't for that guy ha.

Unless someone is incessantly trolling, blocking people for dissenting views is about the most anti-science thing someone can do. So pathetic. 

But yeah, the warm ground thing is usually only relevant in snowfalls under warning criteria...since warning criteria snowfalls are almost always going to have high enough rates to negate any warm ground effect. It's also more likely that you will tick the temp a degree or two colder in heavier rates. (I.E like 31-32 vs 33-34)

[HoarfrostHubb]

Ginxy is brutal on Twitter.  Mets are constantly blocking him

seriously, that met sounds thin skinned to me

[CoastalWx]

I love the warm ground argument. It just constantly serves up some good pies thrown in the faces of these guys. 

[Lava Rock]

The GFS is still doing it...its been so consistent in the St Lawrence River Valley for 2 days now.

I cannot figure it out though...the orographic forcing shouldn't be in the river valley.  Its even got Montreal with like 1.6-1.8" of QPF where other models have very little.  It wants to paint a huge area of 12-24" snows across northern NY and southern Canada.  I just can't see how Massena, NY gets 25" of snow out of this but the GFS has some incredible precip rates. 

Just like last year, eh?

[ORH_wxman]

18z GFS triples down again on the NW NY snowfall...almost 3.5 inches of QPF all snow. I am having trouble envisioning that, but I'm becoming more intrigued with each model run. Euro is nowhere close to this amount though, so I stay skeptical until more evidence comes in:

 

[moneypitmike]

16 minutes ago, ORH_wxman said:

18z GFS triples down again on the NW NY snowfall...almost 3.5 inches of QPF all snow. I am having trouble envisioning that, but I'm becoming more intrigued with each model run. Euro is nowhere close to this amount though, so I stay skeptical until more evidence comes in:

 

That would be nice start for the snow machines.

[dendrite]

I would toss those GFS runs as far as you can throw them. Blend some form of the RGEM/NAM/EC up there and don't even factor the GFS in...but be ready to up amounts if it starts verifying.

i should look at some x-sections up there to see what's going on with the flow across that heavy stripe. I'm too lazy to fiddle with that stuff on my ipad though.

[Ginx snewx]

14 minutes ago, dendrite said:

I would toss those GFS runs as far as you can throw them. Blend some form of the RGEM/NAM/EC up there and don't even factor the GFS in...but be ready to up amounts if it starts verifying.

i should look at some x-sections up there to see what's going on with the flow across that heavy stripe. I'm too lazy to fiddle with that stuff on my ipad though.

Look at the cloud fraction products .  inflow from Bermuda up around Nova Scotia over the top and back around developing an explosive CCB. Impressive look but IDK if it's that dynamic 

[HoarfrostHubb]

Is the GFS doing some weird lake effect thing?