2016-17 Winter Outlook

[tacoman25]

The factors included in this outlook: ENSO, solar, QBO, PDO, and the fall pattern.

 

MEI is weighted heavier than ONI for ENSO analogs.

 

ENSO analogs: 2008, 2005, 2001, 2000, 1996, 1995, 1989, 1985, 1983, 1981, 1978, 1967, 1966, 1962, 1961, 1960, 1959, 1950

 

Solar analogs (based mainly on TSI): 2010, 2007, 2006, 2005, 1997, 1996, 1995, 1994, 1986, 1985, 1984, 1977, 1976, 1975, 1974, 1965, 1964, 1963, 1955, 1954

 

QBO analogs: 2015, 2013, 2010, 2008, 2006, 2004, 2002, 1999, 1997, 1990, 1987, 1985, 1980, 1978, 1975, 1973, 1971, 1969, 1966, 1963, 1961, 1959, 1957, 1955

 

PDO analogs: 2009, 2006, 2004, 2003, 2002, 1996, 1995, 1992, 1991, 1990, 1989, 1985, 1984, 1981, 1980, 1978, 1974, 1972, 1968, 1965, 1963, 1959, 1958, 1954

 

Fall pattern (based mainly on NH heights): 2007, 2000, 1984, 1981, 1961, 1959, 1953, 1951, 1950

 

Overall best matches: 1950, 1959, 1961, 1963, 1966, 1974, 1978, 1981, 1984, 1985, 1990, 1995, 1996, 2000, 2006, 2008, 2010

 

My top 5 analogs: 1959, 1961, 1966, 1984, 1995

 

 

Rolling forward the "best match analogs": 

 

DEC

 

 

JAN

 

 

FEB

 

 

 

Rolling forward my top 5 analogs:

 

DEC

 

 

JAN

 

 

FEB

 

 

 

Summary:

 

DECEMBER -

 

Overall, the analogs (both the broader and more narrow sets) paint a fairly clear picture. There is a strong signal for upper latitude blocking to continue on the Euro-Asian side of the globe in December. Much of Asia should remain colder than normal, and western Europe will likely turn stormy and cooler. There is a weaker signal for west based -NAO in North America, leading to much more seasonable conditions in the lower 48, and a good chance of below normal temps over parts of the country. Interior Alaska should turn colder, as a Bering Sea/Siberian high funnels some of the cold air from Asia into northern North America.

 

JANUARY -

 

There is a decent signal for -EPO to develop this month, along with a suppressed Pacific jet. In addition, the -NAO shifts further east and north, while the Asian side blocking fades. Overall, a very blocky look to the far northern latitudes. Most of Europe is likely in the freezer, and below normal temps are also likely for much of the U.S., with the greatest chance of major cold in the west/central U.S. The coldest anomalies could actually be in the southern half of the country, with deep penetrating Arctic air masses much more likely than normal.

 

FEBRUARY -

 

To finish out met winter, the analogs insist on a generally -PNA/-NAO look, with strong ridging off the coast of western North America. The entire lower 48 is once again at risk for significant Arctic intrusions, with an increased chance for the Midwest and East Coast, despite bouts of warmth driven by -PNA. The coldest anomalies will likely be found in the northern plains/upper Midwest. Western Europe likely sees some moderation, but eastern Europe may see their coldest temps of the winter this month.

 

All signs continue to point to a blocky winter for the Northern Hemisphere: relatively low solar, weak ENSO, +QBO, and strong Arctic blocking this fall. We've seen Asia get very cold this autumn, and though I believe the AO will trend more positive as winter goes on, I think it's quite likely the main cold shifts to Europe and North America, especially in Jan/Feb as -NAO/-EPO become more likely.

[raindancewx]

Your outlook (1959, 1961, 1966, 1984, 1995) if you plot the temperature anomalies, is kind of similar to mine overall. You have the coldest departures from 1981-2010 normals over Montana, which is my thought. It's stupid cold in January in those years you selected in Montana. Also ridiculously cold in Montana in March in those years.

I used 1942, 1954, 1973, 1978, 1981, 1983, 1989, 1993, 1995, 2007, 2011 to get my forecast, but it was purely based on local conditions in the Summer. Result is about the same though:

All in all...it certainly matches what I expect for the winter. Interesting to see you arrive at a very similar result using very different years! My result was literally based on taking observed Summer high temperatures in Albuquerque from June to Sept and comparing the resulting error to each year from 1931-2015, and then looking at precipitation trends (wet, near normal, dry?), and a couple other factors (ENSO, yrs since last big winter, and a proxy for Gulf of California warmth using a blend of ENSO/precip).

 

[tacoman25]

On 11/15/2016 at 6:28 PM, raindancewx said:

Your outlook (1959, 1961, 1966, 1984, 1995) if you plot the temperature anomalies, is kind of similar to mine overall. You have the coldest departures from 1981-2010 normals over Montana, which is my thought. It's stupid cold in January in those years you selected in Montana. Also ridiculously cold in Montana in March in those years.

I used 1942, 1954, 1973, 1978, 1981, 1983, 1989, 1993, 1995, 2007, 2011 to get my forecast, but it was purely based on local conditions in the Summer. Result is about the same though:

All in all...it certainly matches what I expect for the winter. Interesting to see you arrive at a very similar result using very different years! My result was literally based on taking observed Summer high temperatures in Albuquerque from June to Sept and comparing the resulting error to each year from 1931-2015, and then looking at precipitation trends (wet, near normal, dry?), and a couple other factors (ENSO, yrs since last big winter, and a proxy for Gulf of California warmth using a blend of ENSO/precip).

 

 

Yes, very interesting. I think a lot of things point to a cold winter for the northern Plains/northern Rockies. 

[uncle W]

good luck tacoman...I like 1959-60 as an analog...I like a few others in your analog package...The ones that are a weak la nina or neutral negative after an el nino...1995-96 is one of those but it's to the extreme...I'd like to see that again but I'll settle for 1959-60...

[tacoman25]

On 11/26/2016 at 10:00 AM, uncle W said:

good luck tacoman...I like 1959-60 as an analog...I like a few others in your analog package...The ones that are a weak la nina or neutral negative after an el nino...1995-96 is one of those but it's to the extreme...I'd like to see that again but I'll settle for 1959-60...

Thanks, uncle. I like how things look now heading into December. The blocky theme is certainly showing no signs of going away, and the warm pattern that has dominated the lower 48 this fall is fading.

[Brick Tamland]

Funny how it sounds more optimistic here than in the SE forum. 

[tacoman25]

7 hours ago, Brick Tamland said:

Funny how it sounds more optimistic here than in the SE forum. 

How did your area do with the primary analogs? 1959-60, 1961-62, 1966-67, 1984-85, and 1995-96.

[pcbjr]

1 hour ago, tacoman25 said:

How did your area do with the primary analogs? 1959-60, 1961-62, 1966-67, 1984-85, and 1995-96.

40/60

 

 

[packbacker]

1 hour ago, tacoman25 said:

How did your area do with the primary analogs? 1959-60, 1961-62, 1966-67, 1984-85, and 1995-96.

RDU Avg is 7"...for RDU your analogs resulted in snowfall of  18.8, 14.8, 10.6, 4.1, 14.60.  So yeah, these are on our greatest hits list :-)

Great writeup!

[tacoman25]

23 hours ago, packbacker said:

RDU Avg is 7"...for RDU your analogs resulted in snowfall of  18.8, 14.8, 10.6, 4.1, 14.60.  So yeah, these are on our greatest hits list :-)

Great writeup!

Nice! It makes sense, as your area usually requires greater blocking to get cold/snow, and my analogs were quite blocky overall.

Speaking of blocking...