The factors included in this outlook: ENSO, solar, QBO, PDO, and the fall pattern.   MEI is weighted heavier than ONI for ENSO analogs.   ENSO analogs: 2008, 2005, 2001, 2000, 1996, 1995, 1989, 1985, 1983, 1981, 1978, 1967, 1966, 1962, 1961, 1960, 1959, 1950   Solar analogs (based mainly on TSI): 2010, 2007, 2006, 2005, 1997, 1996, 1995, 1994, 1986, 1985, 1984, 1977, 1976, 1975, 1974, 1965, 1964, 1963, 1955, 1954   QBO analogs: 2015, 2013, 2010, 2008, 2006