Deck Pic Posted November 15, 2016 Share Posted November 15, 2016 Overall: +1 Dec: Normal Jan: -1 Feb: +3 DCA: 8-12" \https://www.washingtonpost.com/news/capital-weather-gang/wp/2016/11/15/capital-weather-gangs-winter-outlook-for-d-c-colder-than-last-year-but-not-as-snowy/ Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted November 15, 2016 Share Posted November 15, 2016 Nice work Matt. Thinking the same thing but I hope we're both wrong and we get blasted of course. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Deck Pic Posted November 15, 2016 Author Share Posted November 15, 2016 Thanks guys. Super low confidence this year. I might as well have used a magic 8-ball Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RichmondTarHeel Posted November 15, 2016 Share Posted November 15, 2016 This isn't me bashing your prediction, because I truly appreciate reading every single one, but why even attempt giving a number prediction of snowfall? Seems like an easy target for others to call you wrong. Last year, I think y'all were pretty accurate, except for Snowzilla. Take away the 20-30" from that one storm, and you did a good job. However, other people will just point at the overall numbers and say "you're wrong". Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Deck Pic Posted November 15, 2016 Author Share Posted November 15, 2016 Just now, NovaTarHeel said: This isn't me bashing your prediction, because I truly appreciate reading every single one, but why even attempt giving a number prediction of snowfall? Seems like an easy target for others to call you wrong. Last year, I think y'all were pretty accurate, except for Snowzilla. Take away the 20-30" from that one storm, and you did a good job. However, other people will just point at the overall numbers and say "you're wrong". Much of this is media driven, and for better or worse snowfall amounts are expected, and what people look at. It is low confidence obviously... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
donsutherland1 Posted November 15, 2016 Share Posted November 15, 2016 Fantastic read. Good luck with the forecast. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mappy Posted November 15, 2016 Share Posted November 15, 2016 Great article, Matt. Of course I'm hoping to be at/near climo. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted November 15, 2016 Share Posted November 15, 2016 23 minutes ago, Deck Pic said: Much of this is media driven, and for better or worse snowfall amounts are expected, and what people look at. It is low confidence obviously... Grading someone on the snowfall part of a winter outlook for the MA is pretty dumb. When you live in an area where a single event or two can be the difference of a disaster or boom year it incorporates too much plain luck and chaos into the mix. How can anyone or anything like a computer model pinpoint discreet events with accuracy right? It's not possible. Odds play into it sometimes of course. Like mod nino years. They have consistently proven to carry the best chances at above normal snow around here. Outside of that random chaos takes over. Temps are the real skill point of a forecast but snowfall is always scrutinized more. Much more it seems. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
H2O Posted November 15, 2016 Share Posted November 15, 2016 Good read, Matt. I'll be happy with around avg snow if there are some cold spells to go with some storms. A normal Dec would be nice too after a few that have torched recently. Hope your call works out! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Deck Pic Posted November 15, 2016 Author Share Posted November 15, 2016 Thanks for the comments everyone. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Deck Pic Posted November 15, 2016 Author Share Posted November 15, 2016 I'll be on a CWG FB live chat around 2:30-ish or a little after. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Isotherm Posted November 15, 2016 Share Posted November 15, 2016 Nice work. Your outlook is the closest I have seen to mine thus far. I'm 9 to 14 inches for DCA with DJF temps +0.5 to +2. Also have a near neutral AO with +NAO. Quite a bit more divergence than usual in outlooks this year, with high bust potential. Should be interesting. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mattie g Posted November 15, 2016 Share Posted November 15, 2016 Good luck with your call, zwyts. I'm not satisfied with climo IMBY, but that's because climo pretty much sucks in this area. Oh well. It's one negative among many positives about living in the Mid-Atlantic. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxUSAF Posted November 15, 2016 Share Posted November 15, 2016 Nice work, Matt. I think slightly BN snow is probably the right call given the pacific indices, although I hope we can beat that. Temps could be tricky depending how cold we can get early in the winter. Though hard to argue with AN temps given persistence. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BTRWx Posted November 15, 2016 Share Posted November 15, 2016 2 hours ago, Deck Pic said: Thanks for the comments everyone. Gl with +3 Feb, but otherwise I love the analysis! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Deck Pic Posted November 16, 2016 Author Share Posted November 16, 2016 Thanks for the comments everyone. If you scroll down you can see an archive of my live chat https://www.facebook.com/capitalweather/ Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Deck Pic Posted November 16, 2016 Author Share Posted November 16, 2016 22 hours ago, Isotherm said: Nice work. Your outlook is the closest I have seen to mine thus far. I'm 9 to 14 inches for DCA with DJF temps +0.5 to +2. Also have a near neutral AO with +NAO. Quite a bit more divergence than usual in outlooks this year, with high bust potential. Should be interesting. Yes, I noticed that too when looking more closely at my main analogs - 80-81 and 83-84. The gap between the AO and NAO, which is much more likely to affect us at our latitude rather than 40N. Cold and dry, storm tracks to the west. Without west-based blocking and/or a 50-50, a -AO can only do so much for the MA. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Daniel Boone Posted November 16, 2016 Share Posted November 16, 2016 outlook looks almost like 83-84 to a t. 80-81 actually had a decent february here in far swva. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HighStakes Posted November 17, 2016 Share Posted November 17, 2016 Nice read. good job. Looks like a very reasonable solid forecast. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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