raindancewx Posted February 4, 2017 Share Posted February 4, 2017 I put out a Spring outlook if anyone is curious. In terms of oceanic conditions and the observed weather here in Nov-Jan, Spring 1997 did pretty well, (borderline La Nina '96-97, wet in the SW, warm AMO, positive PDO, likely heading into an El Nino, nearing solar minimum, and so on). If you all like the cold weather in the Northwest...it's not going anywhere. Anyway, link is below. https://t.co/GZ6OMiARuU Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chinook Posted February 5, 2017 Author Share Posted February 5, 2017 Hmm, 48-60" for northwest Montana? They might compete with New York State. (see Upstate NY/ Pennsylvania Subforum) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mayjawintastawm Posted February 5, 2017 Share Posted February 5, 2017 On 2/2/2017 at 10:31 AM, Chinook said: We had freezing drizzle last night. It was about the most freezing drizzle I have seen in Colorado, maybe 0.02" or 0.03". It got pretty dangerous on the roads. I saw one car that crashed into the curb. We have had about 1/2" of snow since then. Yup, walked and drove like back in New England for a couple days. Only significant (i.e. need to pay attention for more than one rush hour) fzdz event since we moved in 2010. Today is gorgeous. One more week and I'll be cranky for snow again. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chinook Posted February 6, 2017 Author Share Posted February 6, 2017 Heavy snow impacted the Seattle and Tacoma metro areas. It's pretty rare to get this at low elevations. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chinook Posted February 6, 2017 Author Share Posted February 6, 2017 We are getting some of the models saying snow for Denver on Saturday night, and perhaps into Sunday. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chinook Posted February 8, 2017 Author Share Posted February 8, 2017 Denver, Colorado Springs, and northern New Mexico may see snow over the weekend. The latest Euro run is pretty much dry below 6000ft though. It's worth checking back in a couple of days. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mayjawintastawm Posted February 9, 2017 Share Posted February 9, 2017 Jeez. Warm and dry, I sort of like it but we really could use some winter down here on the Plains. Meanwhile, back where I come from in SNE, they're expecting... wait for it... a mayjawintastawm. Nice hard thump of about a foot. Need that here! From this evening's BOX AFD: ***Major Winter Storm With Heavy Snow And Blizzard Conditions Across Southeast New England On Thursday*** Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
sfenn1117 Posted February 9, 2017 Share Posted February 9, 2017 13 hours ago, mayjawintastawm said: Jeez. Warm and dry, I sort of like it but we really could use some winter down here on the Plains. Meanwhile, back where I come from in SNE, they're expecting... wait for it... a mayjawintastawm. Nice hard thump of about a foot. Need that here! From this evening's BOX AFD: ***Major Winter Storm With Heavy Snow And Blizzard Conditions Across Southeast New England On Thursday*** I am missing CT today, but also enjoying 70 degrees and perfect skiing conditions. We'll get ours. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mayjawintastawm Posted February 9, 2017 Share Posted February 9, 2017 Ice going out on Cherry Creek Lake this morning. Birds ecstatic. Saw two courting bald eagles in midair. Beautiful early spring day. Could only mean one thing: a blizzard about March 5th. Whaddya say? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chinook Posted February 9, 2017 Author Share Posted February 9, 2017 New England is getting their big storm. I am actually impressed by 977mb. I think it was Monday 12z when the NAM went big on New England snow totals. The GFS -lost- the storm at that time frame but the GFS didn't lose the storm for a super long time. So, a fair amount of chaos with the models early this week. I would be really nice to see another 6-12" storm here this season, with a good 18" at 7000ft. I don't have any particular expectation on that. March 5-10 is a typical time for heavy snow... but there hasn't been anything huge on March 5-10 in any of the years I have been here. I don't know about you, but last winter was a pretty major winter, all the while with a fair amount of above normal temperatures. It has been like spring since the freezing drizzle melted off the tree branches on Saturday. There should be a band of rain/snow in Denver on Saturday, but there's a chance that there's no snow or trace of snow at Denver. GFS Ensemble mean temps are mostly warm for this part of the country for 0-16 days. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
raindancewx Posted February 9, 2017 Share Posted February 9, 2017 We're supposed to have near record highs tomorrow (pushing 90F in Roswell & Tucumcari downwind of the mountains), but big snow after, especially for the southern mountains. Even in ABQ we go from ~73F (daily record) on Friday to probably a dusting to two inches Sunday Night/Monday morning. I'd like to see the southern mountains get a lot of snow out of this, they've been losing snow very quickly. Statewide, we're back down to 106% of average snow pack as of 2.9.17 against 139% on 1.25.17. But of course, it hasn't rained or snowed really anywhere since late January. Re: March - the models keep flirting with a cold March for the interior West, and can't decide if it will be cold in the East or along the West Coast. The Western half of New Mexico hasn't had even average precipitation in March (0.5") in something like 10 years, with the El Nino of 2010 favoring the north, and March 2015 missing (snowed like crazy Feb 22-28), and March 2016 favoring CO, CA, and Mexico (it snowed in Guadalajara last year...but not in NM!). The European weeklies have been showing a cold March, as has the Canadian, and the CFS seems to be moving them. It's hard for March to be cold here w/o moisture, so I am optimistic. March used to be a huge month down here in the mountains, it's about time for it's come back. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chinook Posted February 10, 2017 Author Share Posted February 10, 2017 February 9th, 8:45PM. My car said it was 62 degrees. Average high/low for this date is 45/20. So I guess that makes the temp at 8:45PM a whopping 29.5 degrees above the expected average temperature for the day. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mayjawintastawm Posted February 10, 2017 Share Posted February 10, 2017 7 hours ago, Chinook said: New England is getting their big storm. I am actually impressed by 977mb. I think it was Monday 12z when the NAM went big on New England snow totals. The GFS -lost- the storm at that time frame but the GFS didn't lose the storm for a super long time. So, a fair amount of chaos with the models early this week. I would be really nice to see another 6-12" storm here this season, with a good 18" at 7000ft. I don't have any particular expectation on that. March 5-10 is a typical time for heavy snow... but there hasn't been anything huge on March 5-10 in any of the years I have been here. I don't know about you, but last winter was a pretty major winter, all the while with a fair amount of above normal temperatures. It has been like spring since the freezing drizzle melted off the tree branches on Saturday. There should be a band of rain/snow in Denver on Saturday, but there's a chance that there's no snow or trace of snow at Denver. GFS Ensemble mean temps are mostly warm for this part of the country for 0-16 days. Yeah, last year I wound up with 70-75" total, thanks to 40" between the two big storms in March and April. The lawn was looking amazing by May 1. I think by this time last year we had around 25" and this year I have 21" so far. So, though dry, not terrible, as long as Mar/Apr wind up wetter than the past month or so has been. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MichiganLion Posted February 10, 2017 Share Posted February 10, 2017 It is currently 79 degrees at Denver International Airport ........ breaking (by 2 degrees) the previous all-time record high for Denver for the month of February. If it gets to 80, it would be the earliest 80-degree-day of any calendar year by about 5 weeks (81 degrees on 15-March-2015). Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mayjawintastawm Posted February 10, 2017 Share Posted February 10, 2017 Yup, it's done. First time I have experienced 80 degrees north of Florida in February in my 50+ years. Walked from the parking lot at DIA to the terminal about an hour ago. Wow! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chinook Posted February 11, 2017 Author Share Posted February 11, 2017 We had wind gusts of 40-55mph, some lenticular clouds, and a high temperature of 76. Circled area is max wind gusts within last 24 hours. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
raindancewx Posted February 11, 2017 Share Posted February 11, 2017 The NAM is implying a trowal forms over New Mexico on Monday after the cold air conquers the heat. That's among the only setups that can bring a lot of snow to the Rio Grande Valley. Will be interesting to see if the NAM changes its mind in the next few cycles or keeps showing this. Albuquerque is somewhat notorious for seeing over-performing late season snowstorms (Feb 15 - Apr 15), that are supposed to be 0-2", that end up at 3-6", 6-12", or 12"+. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
donsutherland1 Posted February 11, 2017 Share Posted February 11, 2017 8 hours ago, MichiganLion said: It is currently 79 degrees at Denver International Airport ........ breaking (by 2 degrees) the previous all-time record high for Denver for the month of February. If it gets to 80, it would be the earliest 80-degree-day of any calendar year by about 5 weeks (81 degrees on 15-March-2015). I believe you meant 3/16/2015. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
raindancewx Posted February 11, 2017 Share Posted February 11, 2017 The Euro, Canadian and NAM now have a pretty big snow event for most of New Mexico after a dry 25-day period. Models have 3-5", 4-6", 2-4" (at least - NAM still isn't fully in yet), for ABQ, with the GFS showing 0-2". I'd probably go 1-4" with locally higher/lower amounts. But suspect the GFS will come up. Euro in particular came in much higher from earlier today. Areas in Eastern NM that hit 85-90F today are in for quite a shock Monday to Tuesday Morning Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chinook Posted February 11, 2017 Author Share Posted February 11, 2017 Warmest winter days 1/26/15 high 74.9, low 28.8 2/10/17 high 76.2, low 54.3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chinook Posted February 11, 2017 Author Share Posted February 11, 2017 Winter storm watch effective for Las Vegas NM and nearby zones. (Las Vegas is a city at 6877ft. not Las Vegas NV) Quote The National Weather Service in Albuquerque has issued a Winter Storm Watch, which is in effect from Sunday afternoon through Tuesday morning. * SNOW ACCUMULATIONS...8 to 14 inches above 7500 feet and 4 to 8 inches below 7500 feet. Locally higher amounts possible on the higher mountain peaks and east slopes. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
raindancewx Posted February 12, 2017 Share Posted February 12, 2017 Winter Weather Advisory for Albuquerque Metro. 1-3" for city east of the river essentially, 3-5" for Westside/Rio Rancho. Mountains should do well with this. NAM keeps showing a trowal over the western half of the city. My research shows 95% of La Nina (DJF) winters get less than 1.95" precip in ABQ - so it will be interesting to see if we can beat that. At 1.55" currently with lots of moisture coming in the next month according to CPC. Euro has 0.5" with this system, 2-5" for the city. Not sure why they issued the advisory now, probably won't snow until after midnight...but it is what it is. I think we get a coating to 2" overnight Sun-Mon, and then 1-3" Mon Night to Tues Morning in the city. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chinook Posted February 12, 2017 Author Share Posted February 12, 2017 The latest GFS runs have shown snow in Colorado/ Nebraska around February 25th. This might be one of those crazy times when the GFS picks out a storm from 324 hours away, even if the synoptic map looks somewhat different in reality than in the models. There is a chance that this is totally wrong. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chinook Posted February 12, 2017 Author Share Posted February 12, 2017 NWS has 6-14" east of the Rocky Mountain front in New Mexico, and also some of the same, west of the Rio Grande. Albuquerque is just in a climatologically bad spot for snowfall and rainfall with mountains on two sides. Or something like that. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
raindancewx Posted February 13, 2017 Share Posted February 13, 2017 11 hours ago, Chinook said: NWS has 6-14" east of the Rocky Mountain front in New Mexico, and also some of the same, west of the Rio Grande. Albuquerque is just in a climatologically bad spot for snowfall and rainfall with mountains on two sides. Or something like that. It's the wind. We have dry snow, any wind just evaporates it usually. I was looking the other day, in Nov-Apr from 1931-32 to 2015-16, we've had measurable snow (>=0.1") 739 days ending Midnight (8.7/Nov-Apr) in Albuquerque at the sunport. Of those days, 91.5% of the totals are under three inches. In El Nino, it's 11.5% snow days >=3", in Neutral/La Nina it's 6.7%. It's also pretty rare for it to snow when it is under 20-24F here, so the snow ratios trend to be 8:1 to 16:1 instead of getting super high. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chinook Posted February 16, 2017 Author Share Posted February 16, 2017 The 00z GFS and Canadian brought back the Front Range storm at 198 hours (next Thursday). I thought it was gone for sure. Who knows what the 06z and 12z runs will bring? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chinook Posted February 16, 2017 Author Share Posted February 16, 2017 The GEFS averages show colder than average for our area from hour 198 to hour 384. That would be quite a turnaround from the +10.0F for Denver this month!! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
raindancewx Posted February 16, 2017 Share Posted February 16, 2017 I don't really buy the end of February being warm anymore. The MJO forecasts keep moving towards a longer and stronger pulse through phases one and two. There aren't many things that can make much of the country cold, but strong phase two around March 1 is one of them. The trend seems to be to keep the deeper pulse a bit longer each day, a few days ago the models showed barely reaching phase one and then heading back into hibernation in the circle. Now the models have it hanging out it phase one, phase two and maybe making it two phase three. I'd love to see 10-20 days in phases 1-2-3 in March, would be a wild pattern nationally, blizzards, cold, tornadoes, etc. We've certainly been much more seasonal here since we entered phased eight - phase six and seven are quite warm this time of year. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chinook Posted February 17, 2017 Author Share Posted February 17, 2017 Feb 16 update: My snow total is 24.5". The average to date is 33.2". We are falling behind the average by 9 inches. The total liquid equivalent of snow and ice has been 1.96". That is above average precipitation expected in the Nov. 15 to Feb. 15 time period. If we get March-April-May average snow, that would salvage the season. February will be nearly snowless unless we get something around the 23rd-28th. Today, it was 70 degrees with a dew point as low as -7 in the afternoon. That's the largest dew point depression that has happened since I have lived here. we might have a return to winter in the northern Plains. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mayjawintastawm Posted February 18, 2017 Share Posted February 18, 2017 21 hours ago, Chinook said: Today, it was 70 degrees with a dew point as low as -7 in the afternoon. That's the largest dew point depression that has happened since I have lived here. Yesterday at Buckley AFB and DEN there were 80 degree dewpoint depressions for a couple hours (74/-6 for example). The Mojave desert is, shall we say, LOTS wetter at the moment. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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