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Mountain West- Winter


Chinook

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Forecast for Louisville (Winter Storm Watch)

louisville.PNG

And Northglenn (No Headlines)

northglenn.PNG

I'd be curious to know the thought process, because those are both winter storm worthy forecasts. Regardless, headlines will be required across the Urban Corridor, and would not be surprised if everywhere I-25 and west gets a winter storm warning.

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Epic season here in Central Oregon.  Sure we will break 50" for the season by noon today.   double digit below zero tonight ... warm up next week with at least a couple more storms with probably some mix ??  More than 9 foot snow pack in the mountains around here.   
 
 
Winter of  2016-17   49” 
 
Number of full snow cover days:  29
 
11-30-16 dusting 
 
12-01-16 dusting
 
12-03-16  3/4 " on grass. ( First day skiing with Terra )
 
12-06-16  long light snow event .. 3”  with temps in 20’s 
 
12-08-16 nice daytime storm and cold in teens 6"
 
12-10-16   3/4" 
 
12-12-16   1/2"
 
12-14-16  Cold dry .. 15-1/2" .. high 15 degrees during the day. 
 
12-16-16   1"
 
12-23-16  2-1/2"  (warmer than forecast) went up to 38 and partly cloudy during mid day then second wave and slowly falling temps. Probably 5" if 2 degrees colder 
 
12-27-16.  1/2 "   big storm NE Oregon
 
12-30-17.  1/2"  first cold front from the north
 
1-1-17.    1-1/2" 
 
1-2-17     3-1/2" long light dusty like snow
 
1-3-17.    3" kept snowing overnight 
 
1-4-17.     9"  frigid single digit temps 
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Fort Collins is getting a little accumulation now. It's the start of a big storm! We have pretty small snowflakes. NWS Boulder now has the winter storm warning headline for the metro areas, out east of DIA, and east of Greeley. I am wondering now if the rest of the plains would require a winter weather advisory.

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I'm really looking forward to seeing our snow pack numbers after this storm. The ten mountain ranges in New Mexico are at about 80% of normal snow to date overall. Some of the mountains will get 1-3 feet of snow out of this system. My analogs had Jan and/or Feb as pretty snowy out here - looks OK so far. I'm a bit afraid that the Spring will blowtorch here, so the more snow we can get by March the better. Don't think we get major reinforcements in Apr-May this year like we did in 2015 & 2016.

Nice to see our mountain brethren in the south likely to get some big snows too for once.

Albuquerque in a winter weather advisory for 1-3"...first one this season. Had around 9 inches of snow already by this point by last year...0.2" so far. 

European Snow 2.png

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5 hours ago, Chinook said:

We have gotten 2" here. I have heard that the major airlines are cancelling flights at DIA in advance. Obviously there can't be too much accumulation at DIA right now.

Nary a flake since 6 PM, about 1.3" here. Radar looks pathetic. Somehow it seems like Frontier takes pleasure in canceling flights. Glad I don't fly them anymore.

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Radar is not pathetic here. The snow has been falling slowly though. Maybe I will take a measurement at 11:00PM. I can't boast about lots of snow... yet. Heavy snow is kind of rare at this type of temperature, but higher snow ratios are common at this temperature.

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Currently -4F here. NWS point&click forecast says -18 for tomorrow morning.

Here are the area temperature observations plotted with my GRLevel3.  If it is -17 or less here in Fort Collins, it will be the lowest temperature since 1996.

Laramie has reached -31 but is shows up as missing. Even though it is only 11:00PM, Laramie has already hit a lower temperature than any day since December 2014. Edit: Laramie (KLAR) is going to have one of the lowest temperatures of all time, but not break the record. (Records go to 1948).

PZzOuLB.png

 

another local plot on Wunderground. This is some of the coldest local temperatures that I have seen here.

swFELSd.jpg

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Laramie: -40F is the 5th lowest temp of all time

KLAR 061153Z AUTO 17007KT 10SM CLR M34/ A2984 RMK AO2 SLP319 T1344 11344 21400 51004.

This means the 6-hr or 12-hr low was -40.0 C = -40.0F
Greeley was low temp -35.6 C, that's -32F
Fort Collins-Loveland: -28 C is -18.4 F

Fort Collins- CSU got to -15.7F
Cheyenne: -27.2 C is -17F

Longmont: low temp -28.7C is -19.66 F (shouldn't this be a whole number of degrees F?)

Denver: low temp -19.4 C is -3F

 

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Even down here it got down to 14F on a north wind after being 45F at midnight - our version of a blue norther (snow helped too). Was 0F to -10F just east of Albuquerque.

I'm pleased to see the cold in Montana & Wyoming, my analogs had the cold centered over Montana, not the Midwest or Lakes.

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Fort Collins warmed up to 50.9 degrees yesterday and 60.4 degrees today, which was mucho mucho warmer than Friday. I think about 7" out of my 8" snowpack melted in the last 2 days. We had winds to maybe 50mph today. It changed quickly from 5-10mph wind to 40mph gusts.

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The 00z GFS now trending the snow much closer to downtown Denver. The closed 500mb low tracks north-northeast from Albuquerque to SE Colorado. Maybe in a few more runs, there will be a winter storm warning for the Denver metro area. The 00z Euro has more of an east track to the 500mb low now. Still lots of snow for SE Colorado and Kansas on the 00z Euro.

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Yes, it will be interesting to see if the Euro is right, with higher snow amounts near Denver. The 00z Euro had 11" for the eastern edge of Denver city. 12z Euro had 9" for that area. Canadian said 3.8" for Denver. The 06z GFS  had a gradient of 1" in Denver to 5" on the east edge of Adams/Arapahoe. 12z GFS was farther east, 0 to 6" for Washington County (east of Adams/Arapahoe). I wonder if Colorado Springs could get some heavier snow.

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The 00z GFS and Canadian now have this type of snow total (up to Monday afternoon). The 00z Euro still has much more snow west of Fort Morgan, (Morgan County) to Weld County to Denver and Boulder. I am not really sure if this Euro is really going to have the advantage in prediction here. The 500mb track is not really a lot different, but still, some dynamic feature must be producing this difference in snowfall.

 

uMStkKW.png

 

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