Chinook Posted November 21, 2016 Author Share Posted November 21, 2016 GEFS means starting to show much cooler temps here after Nov 28-29 time period. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chinook Posted November 21, 2016 Author Share Posted November 21, 2016 This is a long way out, but the 18z GFS continues with the prediction of a pretty large upslope storm here in northern Colorado on Tue Nov 29th. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Mercurial Posted November 21, 2016 Share Posted November 21, 2016 So stoked for this winter... last week I closed on a small condo at the base of the local ski area, elev 4600 feet, which is quite high for these parts. Ready to get wrecked, and ready to spend 100% of my free time skiing lol. Pattern is def. improving. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chinook Posted November 22, 2016 Author Share Posted November 22, 2016 Now parts of Larimer County and Lincoln County CO are in D2 drought (severe drought) as per the US Drought Monitor. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ConiferMtnMan Posted November 23, 2016 Share Posted November 23, 2016 All the big storms that were expected to hit Colorado in the next 10 days or so appear to be fizzling according to the GFS. May have to wait until January for any skiing this year. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chinook Posted November 23, 2016 Author Share Posted November 23, 2016 Well, we have a storm track going again in the USA, but not a lot to talk about here in the low elevations of Colorado. Next week looks to be colder, perhaps a lot of temps around freezing. My area got some rain on Monday night. Looking back at the previous years' threads, here is what I have posted/estimated for my house. A lot of fun stuff. 2012-2013. April to May 2013 there was 39.5" at my house. (Fort Collins Weather Station had 79.2" for the winter.) 2013-2014: 50.8" 2014-2015: 40.2" 2015-2016: 74.4" That's kind of cool that these seasonal numbers average out to 61.15". That's above normal for here. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
raindancewx Posted November 24, 2016 Share Posted November 24, 2016 I've been impressed with how much moisture we've had here this Fall in NM/AZ/TX - and how little of it made it to CO/UT. As warm as it was in October and the first half of November, Red River ski resort is open with a 24" inch base. November started after a nearly record warm October in the SW, but with the rains/snows, the forecast highs keep dropping for November. The month may now end up being only ~2F above normal for highs, after an October that was +5F or so. My research shows that similarly wet Novembers produce binary results in the following winters for the SW: either extremely wet, or extremely dry. None of the years are "near average". In my area July was pretty hot and slightly below normal for precip. October was a carbon copy. August was pretty cold and wet in most of the SW - Nov was wet too, but looks warm/near average. Will be interesting to see if September, which was near average/warm, with normal moisture will be similar to December. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chinook Posted November 25, 2016 Author Share Posted November 25, 2016 Nov 1 to 24 temperature ranking compared to period-of-record. Nearly every number on this map shows a top 5 warmest November. Colorado Springs is currently at #1 warmest November Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ConiferMtnMan Posted November 25, 2016 Share Posted November 25, 2016 From near the top of Copper Mountain today. Icy, but you've just got to be thankful for any open terrain with the pattern we've had. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
masomenos Posted November 26, 2016 Share Posted November 26, 2016 Man, those mountains are in sad shape...that shot looks like it could be from either May or early October. Red Cliff Pass currently reporting 1% humidity with comparable stations also in the single digits--must feel like being a fish out of water. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chinook Posted November 26, 2016 Author Share Posted November 26, 2016 The combination of Pacific storm systems may turn out to be wetter and snowier than was previously thought. Areas over 7000 ft in western Colorado should get a major bump up in snowpack. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
raindancewx Posted November 26, 2016 Share Posted November 26, 2016 Was just going to post something like that. The snow pack numbers should come up quite a bit from the current levels. The whole "it's La Nina so it will be warm & wet in all of the Southwest" from NOAA is already starting to look bad. Most of the models have December pretty cold in the SW now. Probably cold enough to prevent a blow torch Dec-Feb even if one of the months after Dec warms dramatically. Accuweather has my average high at ~43.8F in Dec - around 4F below average, with 1.2" precip - essentially 90% of a winter's precip in one month. Have little faith in the precip number, but I think I buy the cold December. In NM, this has to be one of our wettest Novembers ever, taking into account the storms coming through the next few days, and that doesn't exactly bode well for some huge December warm up either. Weak sun fighting troughs, snow, and a wet ground. For Albuquerque specifically, accumulating snow in November makes a huge difference to whether the cold season ends up above average or not for snow. Even in a La Nina snow in November has historically lead to an snowier than average season 30% of the the time - near the long term normal odds. Next ten days look pretty awesome for just about every mountain range in the West. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chinook Posted November 30, 2016 Author Share Posted November 30, 2016 Improvement of 17% in the upper Colorado basin Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chinook Posted November 30, 2016 Author Share Posted November 30, 2016 There's a possible snowstorm for northern Colorado inside 168 hours now. Let's see if this actually happens now. This run of the GFS has some cold temperatures around 15 degrees for me at the time of this image. That should mean snow ratios greater than 12:1 if the snow happens. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chinook Posted November 30, 2016 Author Share Posted November 30, 2016 Fort Collins will have the 2nd warmest November in history, behind November 1949 by a couple of tenths of a degree. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chinook Posted November 30, 2016 Author Share Posted November 30, 2016 Ridge, be gone! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ConiferMtnMan Posted November 30, 2016 Share Posted November 30, 2016 1 hour ago, Chinook said: There's a possible snowstorm for northern Colorado inside 168 hours now. Let's see if this actually happens now. This run of the GFS has some cold temperatures around 15 degrees for me at the time of this image. That should mean snow ratios greater than 12:1 if the snow happens. Thank goodness! Being with no snow at almost 9k feet in December is just insane. Keep doing the snow dances! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Guru Of Reason Posted November 30, 2016 Share Posted November 30, 2016 Where can I find Euro text output? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chinook Posted December 1, 2016 Author Share Posted December 1, 2016 Which type of output are you looking for? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chinook Posted December 1, 2016 Author Share Posted December 1, 2016 There's a possibility Denver could be less than 5 degrees in a week. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chinook Posted December 2, 2016 Author Share Posted December 2, 2016 00z GFS 24-hr total ending Tuesday at 5:00PM Mountain. Water equivalent is 0.94" for Denver and close to that for Fort Collins. NWS now predicting 2 degrees for Wednesday and Thursday morning here. NOTE: The 06z and 12z GFS both PREDICT 0" for DENVER. I have no idea what just happened!!! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chinook Posted December 2, 2016 Author Share Posted December 2, 2016 lower elevations of CO have a chance of going below 0 next week, particularly if we get more than 2" of snow. This GEFS plume says that Greeley could hit -15F. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ConiferMtnMan Posted December 2, 2016 Share Posted December 2, 2016 5 hours ago, Chinook said: 00z GFS 24-hr total ending Tuesday at 5:00PM Mountain. Water equivalent is 0.94" for Denver and close to that for Fort Collins. NWS now predicting 2 degrees for Wednesday and Thursday morning here. NOTE: The 06z and 12z GFS both PREDICT 0" for DENVER. I have no idea what just happened!!! Gotta love forecasting in CO. I just wish it was going the other way. We could still use the moisture. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mayjawintastawm Posted December 3, 2016 Share Posted December 3, 2016 00z GFS 24-hr total ending Tuesday at 5:00PM Mountain. Water equivalent is 0.94" for Denver and close to that for Fort Collins. NWS now predicting 2 degrees for Wednesday and Thursday morning here. NOTE: The 06z and 12z GFS both PREDICT 0" for DENVER. I have no idea what just happened!!! Even computers can dream... then they wake up and get all objective again. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chinook Posted December 3, 2016 Author Share Posted December 3, 2016 5 hours ago, mayjawintastawm said: 00z GFS 24-hr total ending Tuesday at 5:00PM Mountain. Water equivalent is 0.94" for Denver and close to that for Fort Collins. NWS now predicting 2 degrees for Wednesday and Thursday morning here. NOTE: The 06z and 12z GFS both PREDICT 0" for DENVER. I have no idea what just happened!!! Even computers can dream... then they wake up and get all objective again. That's an interesting take on that. The GFS is snoozing at 5:00PM mountain time? I'm snoozing at 5:00AM mountain time. Tonight's 00z GFS has the storm returning!!! with 0.35" to 0.45" liquid equivalent for the cities. That could make for a 7"-9" of snow with snow ratios of 20:1. That might be possible if the dendrite growth works out just right in the cold air, under 20F. Today's 18z GFS had QPF more like 0.23" to 0.29" for the cities. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chinook Posted December 3, 2016 Author Share Posted December 3, 2016 A hint of Long's Peak and Mount Meeker in the lower right, with clouds of various types (perhaps lenticular) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chinook Posted December 3, 2016 Author Share Posted December 3, 2016 heavy snowfall expected for NW Montana. 2 to 3 feet seems to be possible soon, east of Missoula on the highest mountain tops. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Mercurial Posted December 4, 2016 Share Posted December 4, 2016 Gonna get wrecked... haven't looked at a model in days, just trying to enjoy the pattern as it comes. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chinook Posted December 4, 2016 Author Share Posted December 4, 2016 00z NAM (Kuchera snow ratio) CYS 6.3" Fort Collins 4.7" Longmont 7.3" Denver 10.7" CO Springs 2.3" 00z GFS (Kuchera snow ratio) CYS 1.6" Fort Collins 3.6" Longmont 3.0" Denver 4.6" CO Springs 0.9" It must be hard to forecast for Colorado Springs Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chinook Posted December 4, 2016 Author Share Posted December 4, 2016 12z GFS has 8.9" for Denver, 12z NAM has 16.2" !! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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