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Mountain West- Winter


Chinook

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Wow, was that ever a weird one. Second half of the storm saved us. Nearest COCORAHS x 2 days had 0.51" total, so with the GFS QPF estimate from 24 hrs previously of 0.7", ratio was 1.4. Less than billed but not a bust. I have no idea how much snow we actually got but best guess is about 3.8" give or take an inch.

It was really pretty this AM. Huge immature bald eagle starting to grow his or her adult feathers in the frosty trees by the lake.

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I'm not a huge fan of the JAMSTEC for temperature outlooks (land) but in my observation of it, the SSTA forecasts are pretty good. It's trending toward another Super El Nino. It's been ages since we've had two super-El Ninos so close together, maybe late 1800s if you believe the reconstructions (i.e. trade winds fully reversing, weird weather, etc). It has the Super El Nino with a somewhat cooler Atlantic, and a neutral-ish PDO, which would be a great pattern for the SW...and sure enough it has almost the entire country frigid, which is somewhat consistent with the near-solar minimum El Ninos. Wildcard I think is the QBO or the AMO.

 

 

JAMSTEC Strong Nino.gif

JAMSTEC Super Nino.gif

Jamstec Frigid USA.gif

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