ValpoVike Posted March 28, 2017 Share Posted March 28, 2017 I picked up a surprise 4.5" of snow this morning up here. The flake size was huge, I mean really huge, with some flakes I would estimate to be 3" in size. No wind, just parachutes dropping out of the clouds. Really amazing. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mayjawintastawm Posted March 29, 2017 Share Posted March 29, 2017 Pretty good bust here so far. GFS was pumping out 1.1" just 12 hrs ago and so far we have 0.06" of drizzle all day. Radar looks terrible. Wind from the NW not E. Something's just weird about this pattern... great setups then the day of the event things kind of fall apart. Hope we can get a good soaking out of one of these. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chinook Posted March 29, 2017 Author Share Posted March 29, 2017 Fort Collins got around 0.54" so far. We had some hours when it just drizzle or a few rain drops. The radar estimation of rainfall around here is too low (for a change.) My new avatar is Nokhu Crags mountain as seen from Hwy 14, near the pass. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chinook Posted March 29, 2017 Author Share Posted March 29, 2017 06z Friday to 06z Sunday- looks like there is a good potential for rain changing to heavy snow for the lower elevations. Otherwise, heavy snow for over 7000 ft. I would expect the first couple of inches of snow to easily melt off the roads at low elevations. We may have damage to trees with the blooming flowers. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
finnster Posted March 29, 2017 Share Posted March 29, 2017 On 3/25/2017 at 8:13 PM, Chinook said: I don't. I only had Eurowx.com for 3 months. I just canceled it. You might try Wunderground.com to look at the Euro, but you will have to look at QPF, 3 hrs at a time or 6 hrs at a time. If it works right. That's one of the reasons I did (and will) get Eurowx.com for the winter. Because it's just too interesting, and Wunderground.com was highly frustrating. I think I will start a new Mountain West thread for summer (so to speak) on April 1st. Because this winter was a joke! If we have a winter storm warning here -after- I start the summer thread, I will laugh! Chinook, my first post here - great site! I have been in the Loveland-Fort Collins area since the early '60's and always enjoy following the weather, through both the frustrations and periodic high points. It seems since about the year 2000 there are far more frustrations than high points, at least for us who appreciate big snows. Anyway, I would think you'd be ok starting the summer thread April 1st. I get the distinct feeling that at least for the Loveland-Fort Collins area we're not going to see any more measurable snow this spring. Just too warm at this elevation now and we always seem to be on the fringe of where the storms track (this NEVER used to be the case here in March!). This could be one of those rare years where Fort Collins gets shut out for measurable snow for March-April-May. I definitely appreciate any rain we get though, and I'd love to be wrong about the snow . Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ValpoVike Posted March 29, 2017 Share Posted March 29, 2017 2 hours ago, finnster said: Chinook, my first post here - great site! I have been in the Loveland-Fort Collins area since the early '60's and always enjoy following the weather, through both the frustrations and periodic high points. It seems since about the year 2000 there are far more frustrations than high points, at least for us who appreciate big snows. Anyway, I would think you'd be ok starting the summer thread April 1st. I get the distinct feeling that at least for the Loveland-Fort Collins area we're not going to see any more measurable snow this spring. Just too warm at this elevation now and we always seem to be on the fringe of where the storms track (this NEVER used to be the case here in March!). This could be one of those rare years where Fort Collins gets shut out for measurable snow for March-April-May. I definitely appreciate any rain we get though, and I'd love to be wrong about the snow . Perhaps this may be true for Loveland and FTC, but it is very likely that other areas along I25 will see accumulation and the foothills may see quite a bit. Next week is looking interesting as well for snow at lower levels too. Oh, welcome to the forum! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chinook Posted March 30, 2017 Author Share Posted March 30, 2017 I got about 0.61" from yesterday. This is excellent for soil moisture- it's about the same as having 6.1" of snow and having it melt in 1 day or 2 days. Latest NWS gridded forecasts for total QPF and snow. If this storm gets a little colder than expected at 700mb, then we might have some surprises. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
huronicane Posted March 30, 2017 Share Posted March 30, 2017 Give me a break. Don't show the RPM and call it a forecast. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mayjawintastawm Posted March 30, 2017 Share Posted March 30, 2017 ...would love to see that but really doubt it. Too much model disagreement for sure, and would love to know why a closed 500 mb low over central NM (or even Sonora/Chihuahua if you believe the 12z ECMWF) creates 34" in Estes Park. Cool, I have 666 posts.... guess the devil is in the details on this one. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chinook Posted March 30, 2017 Author Share Posted March 30, 2017 The NWS Boulder has put snowfall at low elevations in their "weather story" snow map for this weekend http://www.weather.gov/crh/weatherstory?sid=bou#.WN1uMHqfi6U Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
huronicane Posted March 30, 2017 Share Posted March 30, 2017 I'm doubtful of any snow totals at this point. Everything that I've seen thus far for lower elevations has pointed at too warm for anything significant. Look at the spreads in the snow potential from the experimental winter page from BOU. It's almost laughable...you'll get at least no snow, but you might get up to 2 feet! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mayjawintastawm Posted March 30, 2017 Share Posted March 30, 2017 "Experimental - leave feedback." that says it, I guess. Never seen probabilities that strung out before. My favorite spot-on forecast: "Tonight, 100% chance of darkness followed by gradually increasing light toward morning." Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chinook Posted March 31, 2017 Author Share Posted March 31, 2017 The NAM and GFS (18z) seem to differ by a couple degrees, tomorrow night, when the changeover to snow is about to occur. the GFS says it will be 38 with dew point of 36 when snow is falling at my place. So that's interesting. By that, I mean snow tends not to fall when the dew point is over 32. The NAM also does not have so much QPF! The NAM is probably wrong and the foothills will get over 2.0" of QPF with this storm, regardless of precipitation type. Possibly even as much as 3.3" like the GFS says in Jefferson County. This reminds me of mid-April 2009 when Fort Collins got 2.0" of rain and about 2.0" of slushy snow over a couple of days. At 8000ft there was 40" of snow with that one. That's actually the biggest snow total near town in all of my years here. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
raindancewx Posted March 31, 2017 Share Posted March 31, 2017 Have you guys ever looked into March snowfall by solar activity in your areas? It really makes a huge difference here, at least in the valleys, and actually seems more important than ENSO in some ways. The quick test I did thinks (based on low solar years) that no more than 9% of high solar years should have >=3" snow in March. In truth, it's 28%, so you reject the hypothesis that solar makes no difference. The same test thinks (based on high solar years) that no less 8% of of low solar years should have >=3" snow in March. In truth, it's 3% (barring 3 inches of snow tomorrow). The massive discrepancy exists even within El Ninos, 0/9 low-solar El Ninos have big March snow in ABQ, but 8/18 high-solar El Ninos have big March snow in ABQ. You'd probably have to use a threshold higher than 3", but I tested in at 2", and 1.5", and at those levels the sun still works as a "significant" explainer for March snow variation ABQ. What is interesting is March temps are almost completely controlled by ENSO here, but the sun and ENSO both have a lot of say over precip. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chinook Posted March 31, 2017 Author Share Posted March 31, 2017 where was this in October, November, December, January, February, or March? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
raindancewx Posted March 31, 2017 Share Posted March 31, 2017 It's the Nino signal starting to show up honestly. Nino 1.2 has been warm all winter, but 3.4 has warmed up a lot since January 31. The JFM ONI value may be near 0.0C already. I think we're going to be at borderline El Nino conditions by ONI in AMJ, and maybe we end up at +0.3C for "now", i.e. MAM. January was the last negative ONI, March is likely the last neutral month if you use this: https://www.ncdc.noaa.gov/teleconnections/enso/indicators/sst.php Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mayjawintastawm Posted March 31, 2017 Share Posted March 31, 2017 And it disappears again, right on cue. Exit stage south. I'm no longer going to believe any big storms will hit us this season, until after they're done, and even then maybe not. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chinook Posted March 31, 2017 Author Share Posted March 31, 2017 The GFS has snow for a long period for us on Tuesday. The 00z GFS picked up on this, but yesterday's 18z GFS didn't. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ConiferMtnMan Posted March 31, 2017 Share Posted March 31, 2017 5 hours ago, mayjawintastawm said: And it disappears again, right on cue. Exit stage south. I'm no longer going to believe any big storms will hit us this season, until after they're done, and even then maybe not. Agreed. Even in the foothills. But all the local news stations are hanging on to their predictions for whatever reason. These last 3 storms (if you include tonight's) have all been more accurately predicted by the NAM and other short term models. GFS and Euro hang on to their dreams until the end. Coming from the east, I never thought I'd see the day where the NAM was drier, and accurately so, than the GFS/Euro. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chinook Posted April 1, 2017 Author Share Posted April 1, 2017 Oh, you mean like this? I made this image 38 days ago, when we had a shot for 13" in a week and a half. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mayjawintastawm Posted April 1, 2017 Share Posted April 1, 2017 Since I moved here I've called the NAM the "No Accumulation Model". Sadly it's more often correct than not; last Spring's two blizzards notwithstanding. Being in a statistical mood, I'm going to calculate the "GFS ratio": the ratio of QPF from the operational GFS 24 hours before the start of a storm to what actually falls. So far we have 1.2:0.8 last Saturday (ratio 1.5), 1.1:0.2 Tues/Wed (ratio 5.5), and 1.5 to ? with this one. Thinking it's going to be around 7 for a ratio. I'd call a ratio of >2 a bust, and that's being kind. We'll see if we can get 3 busts in a week, by next Tuesday. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
raindancewx Posted April 1, 2017 Share Posted April 1, 2017 April Fools mofos...had rain mixed with snow in the city today at 2 pm. Very impressive. It was 34F at 2 pm. Average high on Apr 1 is 65F. High today is 44F so far...colder than any day in March, and arguably since Feb 13. Already more precipitation this month than all of March... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mayjawintastawm Posted April 2, 2017 Share Posted April 2, 2017 20 hours ago, mayjawintastawm said: Being in a statistical mood, I'm going to calculate the "GFS ratio": the ratio of QPF from the operational GFS 24 hours before the start of a storm to what actually falls. So far we have 1.2:0.8 last Saturday (ratio 1.5), 1.1:0.2 Tues/Wed (ratio 5.5), and 1.5 to ? with this one. Thinking it's going to be around 7 for a ratio. I'd call a ratio of >2 a bust, and that's being kind. We'll see if we can get 3 busts in a week, by next Tuesday. We'll call this over as of 6 PM. GFS ratio with this storm=10.7 (1.5/0.14). Hard to top that. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ConiferMtnMan Posted April 2, 2017 Share Posted April 2, 2017 37 minutes ago, mayjawintastawm said: We'll call this over as of 6 PM. GFS ratio with this storm=10.7 (1.5/0.14). Hard to top that. Don't challenge Mother Nature. We have one more shot Tuesday. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chinook Posted April 2, 2017 Author Share Posted April 2, 2017 Alright. The NWS gridded forecast is showing snow for Tuesday, well out into the plains of Colorado. I guess we get ready. Something like that. So many disappointments. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mayjawintastawm Posted April 3, 2017 Share Posted April 3, 2017 GFS at 00Z calling for 0.7" QPF for MBY through Thurs 12Z. Think we might get 36 hours of drizzle totaling 0.2" if we're really lucky? And perhaps three wet snowflakes? Skied today. They were predicting flurries. We got sun. It was good anyway. Need to do more of that. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
finnster Posted April 3, 2017 Share Posted April 3, 2017 On 4/1/2017 at 11:41 PM, Chinook said: Alright. The NWS gridded forecast is showing snow for Tuesday, well out into the plains of Colorado. I guess we get ready. Something like that. So many disappointments. Truth. So many disappointments - seasonal snow totals for Fort Collins so far is just over 26" with 0" in March (not even a tenth). Very low snow total but historically there have been worse for this area. I am thankful we've at least gotten some rain the past couple weeks, before that it was looking pretty grim like 2012. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
raindancewx Posted April 3, 2017 Share Posted April 3, 2017 NOAA values for the PDO remained near 0 in March, so JISAO value likely won't change much. ONI for JFM isn't in yet - probably later this week. But the Nino 3.4 value for March remained positive, and February was positive too. So JFM ONI is likely near 0 already. Nino 1.2 is actually in something like a Super El Nino at the moment (+1.95C for March) by the reckoning of the second link https://www.ncdc.noaa.gov/teleconnections/pdo/ https://www.ncdc.noaa.gov/teleconnections/enso/indicators/sst.php Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mayjawintastawm Posted April 4, 2017 Share Posted April 4, 2017 NAM, GFS and WPC all say several inches of snow here over the next 24 hrs. GFS QPF has come down a bit but still saying about 0.5". We shall see. Nothing falling now and it's 42. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
raindancewx Posted April 4, 2017 Share Posted April 4, 2017 http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/analysis_monitoring/ensostuff/ensoyears.shtml ONI Value updated for JFM: -0.2C Up from -0.4C in DJF. Still consider the event La Nina, given the strength / persistence of the anomalies from July - January. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Recommended Posts
Archived
This topic is now archived and is closed to further replies.