Roger Smith Posted January 5, 2017 Share Posted January 5, 2017 9 hours ago, PrinceFrederickWx said: Can I get an estimate of when this is supposed to start? Thanks. Currently thinking that the best snowfall opportunities will be Jan 27-28, Feb 9-10 and Feb 24-26. The pattern is not vastly different from what I was expecting but cold air is being wasted on the inter-mountain west (giving me snow) and so the flow is not troughing far enough east yet, it's not like a raging torch pattern but when cold comes it has nothing to fight against in such a low-amplitude wave pattern, developments at present are vaguely encouraging (very nice storm potential for se VA) but I wouldn't look for much to happen through mid-January until we get a bit of height building in the eastern arctic and Greenland. Thus I remain optimistic about a good snowfall total eventually, the prime period is being pushed back into the best six weeks in climatological terms (late January to early March) for east coast snowfall. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PaEasternWX Posted January 5, 2017 Share Posted January 5, 2017 On December 1, 2016 at 6:39 PM, PaEasternWX said: Update: DCA: 9.5 BWI: 12.5 IAD: 14.5 RIC: 5.5 Tiebreaker: +2.3 re: CanSIPS Wow and I thought I was being conservative. Good thing i downgraded from original totals. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PrinceFrederickWx Posted January 5, 2017 Author Share Posted January 5, 2017 8 hours ago, Roger Smith said: Currently thinking that the best snowfall opportunities will be Jan 27-28, Feb 9-10 and Feb 24-26. The pattern is not vastly different from what I was expecting but cold air is being wasted on the inter-mountain west (giving me snow) and so the flow is not troughing far enough east yet, it's not like a raging torch pattern but when cold comes it has nothing to fight against in such a low-amplitude wave pattern, developments at present are vaguely encouraging (very nice storm potential for se VA) but I wouldn't look for much to happen through mid-January until we get a bit of height building in the eastern arctic and Greenland. Thus I remain optimistic about a good snowfall total eventually, the prime period is being pushed back into the best six weeks in climatological terms (late January to early March) for east coast snowfall. Thanks for the write up. I suppose it's not completely impossible- 1987 and 1966 are the first that come to mind for epic winters that were a complete shutout until late January, and then BOOM! I'm feeling pessimistic right now but we'll see. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PrinceFrederickWx Posted January 8, 2017 Author Share Posted January 8, 2017 Seasonal totals so far: BWI: 0.7" DCA: 0.4" IAD: 0.7" RIC: 7.1" Current leaderboard: Mercurial: 8.5 Stormpc: 28.0 Eastcoast NPZ: 32.0 BristowWx: 32.8 MN Transplant: 33.4 Mercurial is the current leader. Stormpc is in a good spot since he went very big on RIC but well below average on all the others. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Mercurial Posted January 9, 2017 Share Posted January 9, 2017 Cool Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Roger Smith Posted January 11, 2017 Share Posted January 11, 2017 I'm in a good spot because of all the snow that's going to start falling in two weeks. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NorthArlington101 Posted January 11, 2017 Share Posted January 11, 2017 Signature not updating so... 2016-2017 Snow 12/04/16 - T of Sleet 12/06/16 - T of Sleet 12/16/16 - T of Snow/Sleet 12/16/16 - ~.1 Ice 1/07/17 - 1.3" Snow Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PrinceFrederickWx Posted January 11, 2017 Author Share Posted January 11, 2017 2 hours ago, NorthArlington101 said: Signature not updating so... 2016-2017 Snow 12/04/16 - T of Sleet 12/06/16 - T of Sleet 12/16/16 - T of Snow/Sleet 12/16/16 - ~.1 Ice 1/07/17 - 1.3" Snow I think you meant to type this in the snow totals thread, not the snowfall contest. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NorthArlington101 Posted January 11, 2017 Share Posted January 11, 2017 Just now, PrinceFrederickWx said: I think you meant to type this in the snow totals thread, not the snowfall contest. Whoops. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PaEasternWX Posted January 12, 2017 Share Posted January 12, 2017 How am I currently doing Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PrinceFrederickWx Posted January 12, 2017 Author Share Posted January 12, 2017 11 hours ago, PaEasternWX said: How am I currently doing You are currently in 8th place with a departure of 36.3 If BWI, DCA and IAD get to about 4" or more it will start being really close. By the way, a blowout winter doesn't necessarily guarantee a Roger Smith win- the four biggest weenies all did their biggest weenie-ing at different airports. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PaEasternWX Posted January 12, 2017 Share Posted January 12, 2017 36 minutes ago, PrinceFrederickWx said: You are currently in 8th place with a departure of 36.3 If BWI, DCA and IAD get to about 4" or more it will start being really close. By the way, a blowout winter doesn't necessarily guarantee a Roger Smith win- the four biggest weenies all did their biggest weenie-ing at different airports. Out of how many people? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PrinceFrederickWx Posted January 12, 2017 Author Share Posted January 12, 2017 26 minutes ago, PaEasternWX said: Out of how many people? There were 52 entries. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PaEasternWX Posted January 12, 2017 Share Posted January 12, 2017 8th place out of 52 not bad. Top 15% Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PrinceFrederickWx Posted January 12, 2017 Author Share Posted January 12, 2017 1 hour ago, PaEasternWX said: 8th place out of 52 not bad. Top 15% There's only two prizes: first place gets a trophy, second place gets a set of steak knives. Third place is you're fired. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wxdude64 Posted January 12, 2017 Share Posted January 12, 2017 1 hour ago, PrinceFrederickWx said: There's only two prizes: first place gets a trophy, second place gets a set of steak knives. Third place is you're fired. Careful, that is almost 'triggerable'........ Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PrinceFrederickWx Posted January 12, 2017 Author Share Posted January 12, 2017 8 minutes ago, wxdude64 said: Careful, that is almost 'triggerable'........ Sorry, we don't give out participation trophies here. Better luck next year if you lose! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PrinceFrederickWx Posted January 18, 2017 Author Share Posted January 18, 2017 It looks like if it comes down to a tiebreaker that Mercurial will probably have that locked up. Those who went negative departure for January (like me) are in big, big trouble. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BTRWx Posted January 24, 2017 Share Posted January 24, 2017 On 1/12/2017 at 2:24 PM, PrinceFrederickWx said: Sorry, we don't give out participation trophies here. Better luck next year if you lose! I just thought an amazing idea. Win or place in x number of amwx contests and get a specialized colored tag! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PaEasternWX Posted January 24, 2017 Share Posted January 24, 2017 My +2.3 is looking great. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PrinceFrederickWx Posted January 25, 2017 Author Share Posted January 25, 2017 On 1/24/2017 at 1:15 PM, PaEasternWX said: My +2.3 is looking great. Actually no, it's not. Even you were too optimistic. BWI is currently +5.9 and it's only going to get worse. We all failed bigly/big league on the tiebreaker except for Mercurial. Edit: Actually grhqofb5 went +5.0 too, but he probably doesn't stand a chance with his snow totals anyway. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PrinceFrederickWx Posted January 30, 2017 Author Share Posted January 30, 2017 On 11/6/2016 at 1:10 PM, Lowershoresadness said: SBY: 36.2 Mic drop This may actually have been the most accurate forecast on here lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PrinceFrederickWx Posted January 30, 2017 Author Share Posted January 30, 2017 Seasonal totals so far: BWI: 0.7" DCA: 1.4" IAD: 1.0" RIC: 7.1" Current leaderboard: Mercurial: 9.8 Stormpc: 26.7 Eastcoast NPZ: 30.7 BristowWx: 31.5 MN Transplant: 32.1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PrinceFrederickWx Posted February 10, 2017 Author Share Posted February 10, 2017 Seasonal totals so far: BWI: 0.7" DCA: 1.4" IAD: 1.6" RIC: 7.1" Current leaderboard: Mercurial: 10.4 Stormpc: 26.1 Eastcoast NPZ: 30.1 BristowWx: 30.9 MN Transplant: 31.5 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PrinceFrederickWx Posted February 10, 2017 Author Share Posted February 10, 2017 I'll remind everyone again that just a minor 2-3" event across the board at DCA/IAD/BWI would make this a very competitive contest... although that seems to be very difficult at the moment. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mattie g Posted February 10, 2017 Share Posted February 10, 2017 1 hour ago, PrinceFrederickWx said: I'll remind everyone again that just a minor 2-3" event across the board at DCA/IAD/BWI would make this a very competitive contest... although that seems to be very difficult at the moment. I guess it's too bad we're going with total departure. It'd be much more interesting - and would require a more skillful guess - if we did and average of the departures per airport or something along those lines. Not that it matters to most of us anyways! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RodneyS Posted February 10, 2017 Share Posted February 10, 2017 12 minutes ago, mattie g said: I guess it's too bad we're going with total departure. It'd be much more interesting - and would require a more skillful guess - if we did and average of the departures per airport or something along those lines. The first post of the thread stated: "The winner will be the person who has the lowest combined absolute value departure for all four airports (i.e. the departures will be calculated for each individual airport, the absolute value of each one of those will be taken, then all four totals will be added)." Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PrinceFrederickWx Posted February 10, 2017 Author Share Posted February 10, 2017 46 minutes ago, mattie g said: I guess it's too bad we're going with total departure. It'd be much more interesting - and would require a more skillful guess - if we did and average of the departures per airport or something along those lines. Not that it matters to most of us anyways! As Rodney pointed out by pasting the rules from the first page, you appear to be confused- we are using individual departures at each airport. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mattie g Posted February 10, 2017 Share Posted February 10, 2017 3 hours ago, PrinceFrederickWx said: As Rodney pointed out by pasting the rules from the first page, you appear to be confused- we are using individual departures at each airport. I guess I'm reading it wrong. You're adding the individual departures (absolute values) at each airport, then adding them and getting the total (absolute) departure, right? So if you guessed that RIC would get 10", with the others 0", but each one actually reported 2.5", then you would be "correct." If you can't tell, I'm not a statistics guy... Please don't take this as a criticism, by the way. You stepped up to put it together, and I do appreciate it! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PrinceFrederickWx Posted February 10, 2017 Author Share Posted February 10, 2017 17 minutes ago, mattie g said: I guess I'm reading it wrong. You're adding the individual departures (absolute values) at each airport, then adding them and getting the total (absolute) departure, right? So if you guessed that RIC would get 10", with the others 0", but each one actually reported 2.5", then you would be "correct." If you can't tell, I'm not a statistics guy... Please don't take this as a criticism, by the way. You stepped up to put it together, and I do appreciate it! Using your example, if you forecasted: BWI: 0" DCA: 0" IAD: 0" RIC: 10" The actual seasonal totals were: BWI: 2.5" DCA: 2.5" IAD: 2.5" RIC: 2.5" Your absolute value departures in that instance would be: BWI: 2.5 DCA: 2.5 IAD: 2.5 RIC: 7.5 Your total departure would be: 15 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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