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Mid-Atlantic winter 2016-17 snowfall contest

PrinceFrederickWx

By PrinceFrederickWx,
in Mid Atlantic

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mattie g

mattie g

Posted
Posted
On 11/8/2016 at 10:29 AM, mattie g said:

First guess, just to see how much can change in three weeks when I make my final (less wild-arse) guess. I've said before that I think we could go big, and I'm not willing to stick my neck out there until the end of November.

BWI: 13.7
DCA: 9.1
IAD: 16.4
RIC: 6.2

Tiebreaker: -0.5

I fully admit that I have absolutely no clue about any of this.

OK...I'm going to bite and make a change to this. I'm really wavering on whether I should go well above normal, but I've got nothing to lose except my pride, so here goes:

BWI: 26.3
DCA: 18.7
IAD: 28.8
RIC: 14.0

Tiebreaker: -1.3

Note: I've been steadily editing these numbers down over the last five minutes.  :lol:

 

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PaEasternWX

PaEasternWX

Posted
Posted
7 hours ago, PrinceFrederickWx said:

Alright, we're ready to go!  All 52 entries have been keyed. 

After each snow event, I'll post the current top five. The current leader will always be in the thread's subtitle too. Winner will be announced sometime in mid/late April!

That is assuming we get a snow event this winter. Very pessimistic after CanSips.

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PrinceFrederickWx

PrinceFrederickWx

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7 hours ago, PaEasternWX said:

That is assuming we get a snow event this winter. Very pessimistic after CanSips.

Mercurial has the low end cornered obviously, but I'd have to see at what point he'd give up the lead. If somehow we get an 11/12 he'd be a shoo-in. I think everyone else went double digits at BWI and IAD at the very least. I don't have the spreadsheet with me but I know there's a lot less variance than last year (which made sense given strong Ninos are usually all-or-nothing).

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PaEasternWX

PaEasternWX

Posted
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13 minutes ago, PrinceFrederickWx said:

Mercurial has the low end cornered obviously, but I'd have to see at what point he'd give up the lead. If somehow we get an 11/12 he'd be a shoo-in. I think everyone else went double digits at BWI and IAD at the very least. I don't have the spreadsheet with me but I know there's a lot less variance than last year (which made sense given strong Ninos are usually all-or-nothing).

Did you get my updated forecast

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PrinceFrederickWx

PrinceFrederickWx

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If you take the average of all 52 entries, you get almost exact climo numbers for DCA and RIC, and slightly above climo for BWI and IAD:

BWI: 22.4

DCA: 15.2

IAD: 25.3

RIC: 10.2

Generally speaking Mercurial would probably win if all airports stayed under 5", but there's a lot of different scenarios. The next cliff jumpers behind him are BristowWx and Stormpc, although Stormpc went big on RIC so, like I said, its complicated. We'll see!

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PrinceFrederickWx

PrinceFrederickWx

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On ‎11‎/‎8‎/‎2016 at 2:21 PM, Roger Smith said:

Here's my reasoning for the high snowfall forecasts ... 

It would only require two or three major storms to get near those totals. I like those odds given the pattern likely to develop in early to mid-winter with episodes of blocking and a compressed jet stream that seldom drops much further south than TN-SC (would be predicting a high frequency of severe outbreaks in the southeast this winter). Some research I have been doing indicates a higher than average concentration of energy in a few events rather than spread out in smaller packets over multiple events (most of which would likely not produce snow anyway). With the deeper lows on a longer cycle between events, we get into that favorable 5-7 day cycle where the final piece of the puzzle falls into place each time the strong event runs south of 40 N. So on that basis, I just have to hit about one third of the expected major events with snow to verify.

I also factored in the apparent fast flow potential over the Pacific which should allow arctic air to keep fighting battles with clippers, combining this with the eastern pattern assumptions it seems favorable for storm development in good locations such as MO, TN, s IL-IN, KY. For that reason I think it will also be a good winter in the Midwest. Frequent outbreaks of severe cold will promote good snow cover in the Great Lakes region, another thing that should work in favor of heavy snow in the mid-Atlantic (chilling the surface layers of high pressure easterly flow at critical times). 

Final point, I expect at least one huge snowstorm and maybe like 2009-10, two or three large falls. However, this winter I expect January to be a bigger player. 

Can I get an estimate of when this is supposed to start? Thanks.

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EastCoast NPZ

EastCoast NPZ

Posted
Posted
On 11/8/2016 at 0:58 PM, EastCoast NPZ said:

BWI:   13.7"

DCA:   9.1"

IAD:    10.4"

RIC:     6.5"

OKV:   3.3"

Tiebreaker:    +3.1F

 

Dud incoming!  Eastern folks partially-saved by the edge of a Miller B.  Western folks remain high and (mostly) dry.

I knew my bullish, enthusiastic nature would someday get me in trouble.  Proof positive that you can never, EVER be bearish enough in these parts.

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