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Mid-Atlantic winter 2016-17 snowfall contest


PrinceFrederickWx

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Here's my reasoning for the high snowfall forecasts ... 

It would only require two or three major storms to get near those totals. I like those odds given the pattern likely to develop in early to mid-winter with episodes of blocking and a compressed jet stream that seldom drops much further south than TN-SC (would be predicting a high frequency of severe outbreaks in the southeast this winter). Some research I have been doing indicates a higher than average concentration of energy in a few events rather than spread out in smaller packets over multiple events (most of which would likely not produce snow anyway). With the deeper lows on a longer cycle between events, we get into that favorable 5-7 day cycle where the final piece of the puzzle falls into place each time the strong event runs south of 40 N. So on that basis, I just have to hit about one third of the expected major events with snow to verify.

I also factored in the apparent fast flow potential over the Pacific which should allow arctic air to keep fighting battles with clippers, combining this with the eastern pattern assumptions it seems favorable for storm development in good locations such as MO, TN, s IL-IN, KY. For that reason I think it will also be a good winter in the Midwest. Frequent outbreaks of severe cold will promote good snow cover in the Great Lakes region, another thing that should work in favor of heavy snow in the mid-Atlantic (chilling the surface layers of high pressure easterly flow at critical times). 

Final point, I expect at least one huge snowstorm and maybe like 2009-10, two or three large falls. However, this winter I expect January to be a bigger player. 

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