EastCoast NPZ Posted November 8, 2016 Share Posted November 8, 2016 19 hours ago, WinterWxLuvr said: Last place, sewn up. ....or first. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
EastCoast NPZ Posted November 8, 2016 Share Posted November 8, 2016 BWI: 13.7" DCA: 9.1" IAD: 10.4" RIC: 6.5" OKV: 3.3" Tiebreaker: +3.1F Dud incoming! Eastern folks partially-saved by the edge of a Miller B. Western folks remain high and (mostly) dry. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Roger Smith Posted November 8, 2016 Share Posted November 8, 2016 Here's my reasoning for the high snowfall forecasts ... It would only require two or three major storms to get near those totals. I like those odds given the pattern likely to develop in early to mid-winter with episodes of blocking and a compressed jet stream that seldom drops much further south than TN-SC (would be predicting a high frequency of severe outbreaks in the southeast this winter). Some research I have been doing indicates a higher than average concentration of energy in a few events rather than spread out in smaller packets over multiple events (most of which would likely not produce snow anyway). With the deeper lows on a longer cycle between events, we get into that favorable 5-7 day cycle where the final piece of the puzzle falls into place each time the strong event runs south of 40 N. So on that basis, I just have to hit about one third of the expected major events with snow to verify. I also factored in the apparent fast flow potential over the Pacific which should allow arctic air to keep fighting battles with clippers, combining this with the eastern pattern assumptions it seems favorable for storm development in good locations such as MO, TN, s IL-IN, KY. For that reason I think it will also be a good winter in the Midwest. Frequent outbreaks of severe cold will promote good snow cover in the Great Lakes region, another thing that should work in favor of heavy snow in the mid-Atlantic (chilling the surface layers of high pressure easterly flow at critical times). Final point, I expect at least one huge snowstorm and maybe like 2009-10, two or three large falls. However, this winter I expect January to be a bigger player. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RIC Airport Posted November 12, 2016 Share Posted November 12, 2016 BWI: 43.4" DCA: 37.1" IAD: 44.4" RIC: 35.8" Tiebreaker: -3.6 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BTRWx Posted November 13, 2016 Share Posted November 13, 2016 On 11/12/2016 at 0:12 PM, RIC Airport said: BWI: 43.4" DCA: 37.1" IAD: 44.4" RIC: 35.8" Tiebreaker: -3.6 Troll. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BTRWx Posted November 13, 2016 Share Posted November 13, 2016 BWI: 18.0" DCA: 12.5" IAD: 20.0" RIC: 8.0" Tiebreaker: +0.40F I like the big boys contest better. https://www.americanwx.com/bb/topic/49110-november-2016-temperature-forecast-contest-and-winter-snowfall-contest/ Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PrinceFrederickWx Posted November 15, 2016 Author Share Posted November 15, 2016 We have 22 entries so far. I was looking at year's spreadsheet and we had 63 then, but obviously plenty of time left to join. My goal is to get at least 100 people playing this year, so all you lurkers- don't be shy! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Wonderdog Posted November 15, 2016 Share Posted November 15, 2016 BWI- 24.5 DCA- 19.8 IAD- 31.5 RIC- 11.5 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PrinceFrederickWx Posted November 16, 2016 Author Share Posted November 16, 2016 BREXIT CUBS TRUMP THE END OF PR ROGER SMITH'S FORECAST VERIFYING (we are currently here) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Shadowzone Posted November 16, 2016 Share Posted November 16, 2016 Ready to win again! Expecting a little below average this year. BWI: 20.2" DCA: 14.1" IAD: 21.5" RIC: 9.5" Tiebreaker: +0.7 F Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PrinceFrederickWx Posted November 16, 2016 Author Share Posted November 16, 2016 39 minutes ago, Shadowzone said: Ready to win again! Expecting a little below average this year. BWI: 20.2" DCA: 14.1" IAD: 21.5" RIC: 9.5" Tiebreaker: +0.7 F I was wondering if you'd return! Our returning champion is back to defend his title! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mappy Posted November 21, 2016 Share Posted November 21, 2016 BWI: 24.8" DCA: 15.2" IAD: 32.6" RIC: 10.1" Tiebreaker: +0.5 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ErinInTheSky Posted November 21, 2016 Share Posted November 21, 2016 BWI: 29.3" DCA: 20.6" IAD: 29.6" RIC: 16.2" T + 0.2 I'm new here... may as well start off with a decent season right? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxUSAF Posted November 21, 2016 Share Posted November 21, 2016 DCA 13.6" BWI 19.8" IAD 23.2" RIC 10.1" T: -1.7 F Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted November 21, 2016 Share Posted November 21, 2016 DCA 11.5" BWI 16.1" IAD 18.7" RIC 8.2" T: -.7 F Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RickinBaltimore Posted November 21, 2016 Share Posted November 21, 2016 BWI: 13.1 DCA: 6.8 IAD: 16.2 RIC: 3.4 Tiebreaker: +2.7 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherCCB Posted November 23, 2016 Share Posted November 23, 2016 BWI - 23.5" DCA - 14.3" IAD - 27.5" RIC - 11.7" T.B. -1,2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RodneyS Posted November 23, 2016 Share Posted November 23, 2016 DCA 11.1" BWI 14.9" IAD 15.5" RIC 7.1" Tiebreaker 0.0 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wxdude64 Posted November 24, 2016 Share Posted November 24, 2016 BWI: 19.7 DCA: 13.3 IAD: 22.2 RIC: 14.5 T: -0.4 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PrinceFrederickWx Posted November 27, 2016 Author Share Posted November 27, 2016 32 players so far- that's about half last year's total but there's still a few days left! Seems like the forum traffic is much lower compared with this time in previous years. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stormpc Posted November 27, 2016 Share Posted November 27, 2016 BWI: 11.7 DCA: 4.8 IAD: 9.6 RIC: 10.8 TB: +2.6 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
87storms Posted November 27, 2016 Share Posted November 27, 2016 BWI: 12" DCA: 11" IAD: 14" RIC: 8" Tiebreaker: +0.8 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Onceinalifetime2009-10 Posted November 27, 2016 Share Posted November 27, 2016 BWI - 13 inches DCA - 9 inches IAD - 25 inches RIC - 3.5 inches Tiebreaker - +2.4 degrees Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jviper Posted November 28, 2016 Share Posted November 28, 2016 BWI 20.8" DCA 14.6" IAD 24.2" RIC 11.1" T: -1.7 F Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MN Transplant Posted November 28, 2016 Share Posted November 28, 2016 BWI: 12.2 DCA: 7.9 IAD: 13.1 RIC: 5.1 Tiebreaker: +1.1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nw baltimore wx Posted November 28, 2016 Share Posted November 28, 2016 BWI: 17.6 DCA: 12.3 IAD: 22.4 RIC: 8.7 Tiebreaker: +0.7 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted November 28, 2016 Share Posted November 28, 2016 BWI: 21.5 DCA: 15.9 IAD: 24.8 RIC: 7.7 Tiebreaker: -0.8 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
attml Posted November 28, 2016 Share Posted November 28, 2016 BWI: 53.5" DCA: 25.7" IAD:38.9" RIC: 14.2" Tiebreaker - 2.1 inches! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
olafminesaw Posted November 28, 2016 Share Posted November 28, 2016 BWI:23.1" DCA: 14.6" IAD:26.4" RIC:9.5" Tiebreaker: -1.1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PrinceFrederickWx Posted November 28, 2016 Author Share Posted November 28, 2016 1 hour ago, attml said: BWI: 53.5" DCA: 25.7" IAD:38.9" RIC: 14.2" Tiebreaker - 2.1 inches! Not sure what this tiebreaker means, it's supposed to be the temperature departure in January at BWI. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Recommended Posts
Archived
This topic is now archived and is closed to further replies.