MikeB_01 Posted December 14, 2016 Share Posted December 14, 2016 Hello All! I am obviously new here, but have been looking for a local forum for a while. From what I saw during this nice surprise storm, I am looking forward to the updates and discussion from everyone in the group. Looking forward to tracking many storms this winter with you all. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rd9108 Posted December 14, 2016 Share Posted December 14, 2016 15 minutes ago, MikeB_01 said: Hello All! I am obviously new here, but have been looking for a local forum for a while. From what I saw during this nice surprise storm, I am looking forward to the updates and discussion from everyone in the group. Looking forward to tracking many storms this winter with you all. Welcome and prepare yourself for disappointment. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
north pgh Posted December 14, 2016 Author Share Posted December 14, 2016 Friday night Saturday morning on the Canadian gives us a nice 4-5 inches before changeover to rain. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stinkbugspecialist Posted December 14, 2016 Share Posted December 14, 2016 23 minutes ago, Ryd10 said: Welcome and prepare yourself for disappointment. Lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RitualOfTheTrout Posted December 14, 2016 Share Posted December 14, 2016 The weekend storm seems to be trending in the wrong direction the last few cycles, the WAA precip shield is shifting further North it seems. The wave on the front afterwards is probably going to bounce all over the place, and its effects will not be wide spread so a narrow band of decent snow will be associated with that feature. Still time to seem a reversal though. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ChalkHillSnowNut Posted December 14, 2016 Share Posted December 14, 2016 need this thing to shift 75 miles south!! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jwilson Posted December 14, 2016 Share Posted December 14, 2016 Don't you just love how we can dip into the single digits, even get to below zero, and then without hesitation 48 hours later be into the 50s with rain? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
colonel717 Posted December 14, 2016 Share Posted December 14, 2016 9 hours ago, MikeB_01 said: Hello All! I am obviously new here, but have been looking for a local forum for a while. From what I saw during this nice surprise storm, I am looking forward to the updates and discussion from everyone in the group. Looking forward to tracking many storms this winter with you all. Welcome. Nice to see some new members. Just about every GEFS for weekend has at least 3 inches and the majority with 6+. Hope it keeps trending this way. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
colonel717 Posted December 14, 2016 Share Posted December 14, 2016 51 minutes ago, ChalkHillSnowNut said: need this thing to shift 75 miles south!! Its been amazing to see all the major guidance lock into the same thing for a few days now for this weekend. Just look at GEFS and the cluster of lows so packed together. No wonder they are pretty locked in. THey have come slightly south over the last day. So hopefully that shift continues. Plus look at those GEFS members I posted looking great for us. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
colonel717 Posted December 14, 2016 Share Posted December 14, 2016 Still hoping to get on some heavy squalls tomorrow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RitualOfTheTrout Posted December 14, 2016 Share Posted December 14, 2016 1 hour ago, colonel717 said: Welcome. Nice to see some new members. Just about every GEFS for weekend has at least 3 inches and the majority with 6+. Hope it keeps trending this way. I'd be hesitant with these, one since they are ensembles they are lower resolution so they might not pick up on a warm layer, secondly, WxBell maps count everything as snow so long as 850 is <= 0 so you could have a warm layer(s) somewhere between so some of that is going to be sleet / zr. Outside of that, you have return flow around a High pressure sliding off the coast combined with WAA ahead of the low cutting west with nothing to the North to replenish cold air and no block to hold the existing air mass in place. Right now I'd say that gives us a shot at 1-2 for most of us in Allegheny and Westmoreland outside the ridges. The only benefit is we have an anomalously cold air mass that is starting to retreat so that will buy some time. Faster we get the WAA precip in the better but we all know how fast the warm tongue can wreck everything. Not trying to be a downer, just inject some ideas about what may happen to limit snow. I hope I eat crow and am shoveling 5 inches Saturday at 40 degrees as we sit in the dryslot after getting pounded. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
colonel717 Posted December 14, 2016 Share Posted December 14, 2016 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stinkbugspecialist Posted December 14, 2016 Share Posted December 14, 2016 4 minutes ago, colonel717 said: Hey do u know what some of the totals were for yesterday storm ???any 6 inch areas?? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rd9108 Posted December 14, 2016 Share Posted December 14, 2016 Just now, Stinkbugspecialist said: Hey do u know what some of the totals were for yesterday storm ???any 6 inch areas?? In my backyard I received about 5 inches measured in various places so quite possible Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
colonel717 Posted December 14, 2016 Share Posted December 14, 2016 1 minute ago, Ryd10 said: In my backyard I received about 5 inches measured in various places so quite possible You doubled what I got. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MikeB_01 Posted December 14, 2016 Share Posted December 14, 2016 49 minutes ago, colonel717 said: You doubled what I got. Yea same here. Measured last night after that final band came through. Had between 3 and 3.5 in some spots. Not what i was expecting. Felt like the snowfall rate would have been higher Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Evilpens64 Posted December 14, 2016 Share Posted December 14, 2016 5 minutes ago, MikeB_01 said: Yea same here. Measured last night after that final band came through. Had between 3 and 3.5 in some spots. Not what i was expecting. Felt like the snowfall rate would have been higher Nah with it being wet Heavy snow it compacts & probably melted a bit in the lulls Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MikeB_01 Posted December 14, 2016 Share Posted December 14, 2016 Wind Chill Advisory for tonight, tomorrow, and tomorrow night Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
north pgh Posted December 14, 2016 Author Share Posted December 14, 2016 The Canadian still give us a good thump overnight Friday into Saturday before the changeover. Comparing it to the GFS it looks like the low takes the same path but it just takes longer for the warm air aloft to kick in. Regardless it looks like the pattern takes it easy after this weekend up until Christmas Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stinkbugspecialist Posted December 14, 2016 Share Posted December 14, 2016 I got at least 4 almost 5 I did not measure like the spotters do .... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rd9108 Posted December 14, 2016 Share Posted December 14, 2016 18z NAM shows a 5 or 6 inch thump before the changeover Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stinkbugspecialist Posted December 14, 2016 Share Posted December 14, 2016 31 minutes ago, Ryd10 said: 18z NAM shows a 5 or 6 inch thump before the changeover Hey u see we might get some squals tonight and with the brutal cold and if couple inches fall will school be off ? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RitualOfTheTrout Posted December 14, 2016 Share Posted December 14, 2016 17 minutes ago, Stinkbugspecialist said: Hey u see we might get some squals tonight and with the brutal cold and if couple inches fall will school be off ? Maybe a delay due to wind chills. We might pick up .5-1 inch with some snow showers \ squalls but it seems like the best setup for more intense stuff is near I-80. With LES you can never rule out someone getting a surpise though. Wind trajectory just isn't good for LES for us. We haven't really had a very favorable setup, we do best when there is a little shortwave that can enhance the precip or we can get a sustained fetch off of Huron and Erie. With the trough centered more in the west \ central US it seems we end up with winds more of a westerly component. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RitualOfTheTrout Posted December 14, 2016 Share Posted December 14, 2016 58 minutes ago, Ryd10 said: 18z NAM shows a 5 or 6 inch thump before the changeover NAM seems to get the precip in sooner. Its probably better at sniffing out WWA precip, but sometimes it overdoes it so who knows. 12z GFS looked good for the anafrontal stuff Sunday. If that is still there Friday I might start to believe it lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
colonel717 Posted December 14, 2016 Share Posted December 14, 2016 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
colonel717 Posted December 14, 2016 Share Posted December 14, 2016 Its so rare we get any substantial freezing rain so take the NAM with a grain of salt.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stinkbugspecialist Posted December 14, 2016 Share Posted December 14, 2016 Sounds good. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MikeB_01 Posted December 15, 2016 Share Posted December 15, 2016 SREF plumes not showing too much snow on the front end of the the storm this weekend. Not showing too much on the back end of it either. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
colonel717 Posted December 15, 2016 Share Posted December 15, 2016 GFS hinting at some heavy squalls making it into WPa Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MikeB_01 Posted December 15, 2016 Share Posted December 15, 2016 36 minutes ago, colonel717 said: GFS hinting at some heavy squalls making it into WPa HRRR not picking up on much of that... Looks like banding stays north. Maybe flirts with Butler county Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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