Stinkbugspecialist Posted March 10, 2017 Share Posted March 10, 2017 2 minutes ago, colonel717 said: No the fun part is the actual storm...This is the anxiety part.. lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stinkbugspecialist Posted March 10, 2017 Share Posted March 10, 2017 2 hours ago, colonel717 said: Lets go with these 2 inland lows... keep cranking them out... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MikeB_01 Posted March 10, 2017 Share Posted March 10, 2017 NAM has the low slightly further east than the GFS at 00z tuesday Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
colonel717 Posted March 10, 2017 Share Posted March 10, 2017 7 minutes ago, MikeB_01 said: NAM has the low slightly further east than the GFS at 00z tuesday If we can strengthen that High SE of Cape Cod, maybe that can help to keep it more west. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
colonel717 Posted March 10, 2017 Share Posted March 10, 2017 Heavy snow midnight Monday Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
north pgh Posted March 10, 2017 Author Share Posted March 10, 2017 Currently getting a nice squall. Winds have picked up and visibility down to about 1/2 mile for the last 10 minutes. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
olafminesaw Posted March 10, 2017 Share Posted March 10, 2017 Just now, colonel717 said: Heavy snow midnight Monday The DC forum is having anurisms right about now. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
colonel717 Posted March 10, 2017 Share Posted March 10, 2017 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stinkbugspecialist Posted March 10, 2017 Share Posted March 10, 2017 1 minute ago, olafminesaw said: The DC forum is having anurisms right about now. wonderful now bring euro towards this... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
colonel717 Posted March 10, 2017 Share Posted March 10, 2017 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
colonel717 Posted March 10, 2017 Share Posted March 10, 2017 Total Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
colonel717 Posted March 10, 2017 Share Posted March 10, 2017 CMC says no storm for you Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
north pgh Posted March 10, 2017 Author Share Posted March 10, 2017 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MikeB_01 Posted March 10, 2017 Share Posted March 10, 2017 1 minute ago, colonel717 said: CMC says no storm for you Does anyone have the verification stats on the CMC? I feel like it is always way off. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
north pgh Posted March 10, 2017 Author Share Posted March 10, 2017 1 minute ago, MikeB_01 said: Does anyone have the verification stats on the CMC? I feel like it is always way off. It seemed pretty reliable last year. So so this year. It doesn't have the 2 systems merging. Still time to come together. If the Euro looks like this then we may be looking at an off the coast. TWC may be jinxing everyone by hyping this to the point it won't happen. Too many weenies I guess. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
colonel717 Posted March 10, 2017 Share Posted March 10, 2017 3 minutes ago, MikeB_01 said: Does anyone have the verification stats on the CMC? I feel like it is always way off. http://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/verification/mode/mode.php?vdate=20161223&mdl=cmc&ldt=24&thres=half#page=page-1 http://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/mdlbias/biastext.shtml#CMC Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
north pgh Posted March 10, 2017 Author Share Posted March 10, 2017 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RitualOfTheTrout Posted March 10, 2017 Share Posted March 10, 2017 12 minutes ago, MikeB_01 said: Does anyone have the verification stats on the CMC? I feel like it is always way off. It's 500mb scores are probably not to far off from verification scores of GFS but anecdotally if we got half the snow the CMC showed we would have a blockbuster winter most years lol. R That being said I look at it like this, if it agrees with other guidance it adds to the consensus but if its an outlier take it with a grain of salt but I guess you could say that about any model, I just give more weight to Euro and GFS. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
colonel717 Posted March 10, 2017 Share Posted March 10, 2017 UKIE gives support to GFS Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Burghblizz Posted March 10, 2017 Share Posted March 10, 2017 without even looking at 500mb, you can tell GFS has a nice closed low over us. That is typically the formula Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
colonel717 Posted March 10, 2017 Share Posted March 10, 2017 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
colonel717 Posted March 10, 2017 Share Posted March 10, 2017 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jwilson Posted March 10, 2017 Share Posted March 10, 2017 41 minutes ago, RitualOfTheTrout said: It's 500mb scores are probably not to far off from verification scores of GFS but anecdotally if we got half the snow the CMC showed we would have a blockbuster winter most years lol. R That being said I look at it like this, if it agrees with other guidance it adds to the consensus but if its an outlier take it with a grain of salt but I guess you could say that about any model, I just give more weight to Euro and GFS. I'm not worried about the Canadian unless other models follow it. It does tend to go off on its own a lot, though. You can probably scrap the GFS run so I'm not paying much attention to it, but I think it is always fair to remain concerned that this storm is going to be too far East for us. We need a stronger southern influence and a quicker phase. For now I'll hug the UK and hope it remains consistent. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jwilson Posted March 10, 2017 Share Posted March 10, 2017 Deustcher Wetterdienst ICON Model: Shows a very early phase, this would probably be a huge hit for everyone (only runs to 78-hours). Very much minimizes Wave 2 (which is now actually the next wave up). Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
colonel717 Posted March 10, 2017 Share Posted March 10, 2017 10 minutes ago, jwilson said: Deustcher Wetterdienst ICON Model:Shows a very early phase, this would probably be a huge hit for everyone (only runs to 78-hours). Very much minimizes Wave 2 (which is now actually the next wave up). Danke schoen.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MikeB_01 Posted March 10, 2017 Share Posted March 10, 2017 Euro looks closer to the coast this run Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MikeB_01 Posted March 10, 2017 Share Posted March 10, 2017 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rd9108 Posted March 10, 2017 Share Posted March 10, 2017 2 minutes ago, MikeB_01 said: Euro looks closer to the coast this run Definitely closer but we only get like .4 of qpf. Honestly this just smells of 2014 to me. Where it hugs the coast but not enough to slam us. We will have to see what trends occur but no one should get their hopes up. I certainly have conceded especially after shoveling 3 inches of heavy slop. So we take the good with the bad, eventually we will get our storm but I just don't see warning level snow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
colonel717 Posted March 10, 2017 Share Posted March 10, 2017 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MikeB_01 Posted March 10, 2017 Share Posted March 10, 2017 Wave #4 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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