MikeB_01 Posted March 8, 2017 Share Posted March 8, 2017 Just now, colonel717 said: I wouldn't sweat over this yet.... There will continue to be big changes every run. If we were shown to get crushed you know it would go bad. We are pretty much fringed and in worse case scenario. We can pretty much only go up from here. True. I'll try to stay positive. New SREF doesn't look great. Looks north Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MikeB_01 Posted March 8, 2017 Share Posted March 8, 2017 Something positive... Not sure the snow totals are where they should be. The energy from wave 1 is more impressive right now than what the snowfall map is showing. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
colonel717 Posted March 8, 2017 Share Posted March 8, 2017 I am riding the potential.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
colonel717 Posted March 8, 2017 Share Posted March 8, 2017 Are we getting NAMed.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
north pgh Posted March 8, 2017 Author Share Posted March 8, 2017 We can model watch all we want for this first wave but I think nobody will know what we get until it gets here. Precipitation is not going to be the problem. The issue will be how quickly the rain changes to snow. If we change to snow early we get the higher totals and if we stay rain longer we get the lower. I am calling 2-6. JMHAO (Just my humble amateur opinion.) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
colonel717 Posted March 8, 2017 Share Posted March 8, 2017 1 minute ago, north pgh said: We can model watch all we want for this first wave but I think nobody will know what we get until it gets here. Precipitation is not going to be the problem. The issue will be how quickly the rain changes to snow. If we change to snow early we get the higher totals and if we stay rain longer we get the lower. I am calling 2-6. JMHAO (Just my humble amateur opinion.) It help that precip starts late evening, and heaviest will be after midnight Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
colonel717 Posted March 8, 2017 Share Posted March 8, 2017 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
colonel717 Posted March 8, 2017 Share Posted March 8, 2017 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
colonel717 Posted March 8, 2017 Share Posted March 8, 2017 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MikeB_01 Posted March 8, 2017 Share Posted March 8, 2017 YAAS I love when we get NAMed Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Mailman Posted March 8, 2017 Share Posted March 8, 2017 Ground temps will be pretty warm for wave 1. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SteelCity08 Posted March 8, 2017 Share Posted March 8, 2017 22 minutes ago, Mailman said: Ground temps will be pretty warm for wave 1. I stopped worrying about this 2 weeks ago after I saw snow accumulate no problem a day after it was 75 degrees lol. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoraopolisWx Posted March 8, 2017 Share Posted March 8, 2017 I'd like to see the next two NAM runs, but it did pretty well with last months storm. Similar also to last month, the 4K NAM is showing a sudden enhancement to the precip, from Pgh south. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MikeB_01 Posted March 8, 2017 Share Posted March 8, 2017 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rd9108 Posted March 8, 2017 Share Posted March 8, 2017 1 minute ago, MikeB_01 said: RGEM also corrected south. I think 2-4 maybe 3-5 is a safe call. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rd9108 Posted March 8, 2017 Share Posted March 8, 2017 Latest gfs on wave 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rd9108 Posted March 8, 2017 Share Posted March 8, 2017 Wave after that one wallops us Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RitualOfTheTrout Posted March 8, 2017 Share Posted March 8, 2017 1 hour ago, SteelCity08 said: I stopped worrying about this 2 weeks ago after I saw snow accumulate no problem a day after it was 75 degrees lol. Yeah I am leaning towards this camp. We will lose some to melting, but the bigger concern is just how quick we flip to snow, the high tomorrow is in the upper 40s so it will be a race to down. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RitualOfTheTrout Posted March 8, 2017 Share Posted March 8, 2017 22 minutes ago, Rd9108 said: Latest gfs on wave 3 I think there is still more upside to this situation, if we shortwave digs deeper and we get a faster phase its going to come west. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RitualOfTheTrout Posted March 8, 2017 Share Posted March 8, 2017 21 minutes ago, Rd9108 said: Wave after that one wallops us Pattern sure is loaded, no guarantee we get a big storm, but odds are the best they have been all winter. Its at least active with lots of events to keep an eye on. Anyways, how about the wave after the wave after the wave? lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rd9108 Posted March 8, 2017 Share Posted March 8, 2017 13 minutes ago, RitualOfTheTrout said: Pattern sure is loaded, no guarantee we get a big storm, but odds are the best they have been all winter. Its at least active with lots of events to keep an eye on. Anyways, how about the wave after the wave after the wave? lol The triple phaser? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rd9108 Posted March 8, 2017 Share Posted March 8, 2017 Some good hits. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
colonel717 Posted March 9, 2017 Share Posted March 9, 2017 1 hour ago, Rd9108 said: The triple phaser? The CFS has been very bullish on that time period. That is a sweet looking storm. Golf season will be pushed way back if that verifies... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
colonel717 Posted March 9, 2017 Share Posted March 9, 2017 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MikeB_01 Posted March 9, 2017 Share Posted March 9, 2017 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
olafminesaw Posted March 9, 2017 Share Posted March 9, 2017 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MikeB_01 Posted March 9, 2017 Share Posted March 9, 2017 NAM is running... Lets see if the trend continues Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rd9108 Posted March 9, 2017 Share Posted March 9, 2017 2 minutes ago, MikeB_01 said: NAM is running... Lets see if the trend continues NAMs north it looks like. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rd9108 Posted March 9, 2017 Share Posted March 9, 2017 Although it looks about the same to me. I think this is a nowcast event at this point. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MikeB_01 Posted March 9, 2017 Share Posted March 9, 2017 Just now, Rd9108 said: Although it looks about the same to me. I think this is a nowcast event at this point. Agreed, looks like it jogged a bit north, but honestly no big changes. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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