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Pittsburgh PA Winter 2016-2017


north pgh

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8 hours ago, Rd9108 said:

We need the second wave to die and the third to just go nuts. I smell a fringe job oncoming for next week. 

No doubt fringe job is on the table for next week.  I was hoping we would max out on this wave 1 like the GFS showed but think it keeps trending north and we get fringed.  

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NWS discussion from this morning:

Quote

The main problems at this point, is how far north
the weak surface wave will go and in turn how far north will
this wave push the surface boundary. Additionally, the path of
the shortwave will be critical as it will also help to determine
the thermal profile aloft. The battle between the warm and cold
air will be critical to how much qpf this system can produce.
Many times when there are setups like this, models will overdue
the amount of precipitation.

I'm a tad more inclined to side with the Euro.  It got the nickname "Dr. No" for a reason, after all.  The GFS seems to be on its own with the NAM(s) aligning more with the Euro in many respects.  Wave 2 is dead for us because of the strength of the confluence; I think Wave 3 still has best potential if the blocking relaxes a tad and the GFS models, at least, show a pretty decent Banana High signature.

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1 minute ago, jwilson said:

NWS discussion from this morning:

I'm a tad more inclined to side with the Euro.  It got the nickname "Dr. No" for a reason, after all.  The GFS seems to be on its own with the NAM(s) aligning more with the Euro in many respects.  Wave 2 is dead for us because of the strength of the confluence; I think Wave 3 still has best potential if the blocking relaxes a tad and the GFS models, at least, show a pretty decent Banana High signature.

Agreed. A 1-2 inch slop event at best.

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9 minutes ago, north pgh said:

NAM is south. Good news for us.

Right as it's coming into its most accurate range.

 

8 minutes ago, colonel717 said:

Crappy surface are taking away from what could be a nice event

58c01492c4b0c.png

Good rates would help. Remember the December 4" storm where the Nam was warm/rain? Obviously it's better to bet on the side of the warm tounge, but I'm mildly optimistic. Besides, kuchera is still 2-3" south, 3-4" north. Being March, a night storm is a big help.

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