MikeB_01 Posted March 7, 2017 Share Posted March 7, 2017 SREF for our first wave Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
colonel717 Posted March 7, 2017 Share Posted March 7, 2017 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
colonel717 Posted March 7, 2017 Share Posted March 7, 2017 Wave 2 pretty much weak and south on 0z Para Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
colonel717 Posted March 7, 2017 Share Posted March 7, 2017 This 1st wave actually looks like it will start Thus evening. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rd9108 Posted March 7, 2017 Share Posted March 7, 2017 4 minutes ago, colonel717 said: Wave 2 pretty much weak and south on 0z Para Old data new gfs looks better Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
colonel717 Posted March 7, 2017 Share Posted March 7, 2017 Should help that it comes in over night. 2 mbs stronger Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
colonel717 Posted March 7, 2017 Share Posted March 7, 2017 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
north pgh Posted March 7, 2017 Author Share Posted March 7, 2017 Just now, colonel717 said: Thursday nights first wave quick hitter has the potential to be my biggest snowfall of the year. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
colonel717 Posted March 7, 2017 Share Posted March 7, 2017 20 minutes ago, Rd9108 said: Old data new gfs looks better Looks like Para was correct. GFS caves. Gotta ride wave 1 it looks like. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rd9108 Posted March 7, 2017 Share Posted March 7, 2017 4 minutes ago, colonel717 said: Looks like Para was correct. GFS caves. Gotta ride wave 1 it looks like. Surface looks bad but huge changes at 500mb. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
colonel717 Posted March 7, 2017 Share Posted March 7, 2017 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RitualOfTheTrout Posted March 7, 2017 Share Posted March 7, 2017 11 minutes ago, colonel717 said: Looks like Para was correct. GFS caves. Gotta ride wave 1 it looks like. Yep, wave 2 is about dead, it would take a very dramatic change to see anything meaningful for us at this point. Wave 1 should put some snow down though, concern with that though is a junk of the precip falls while surface is above freezing and its not very cold before hand either, one bonus though is that it is at night. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
colonel717 Posted March 7, 2017 Share Posted March 7, 2017 Wave 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dj3 Posted March 7, 2017 Share Posted March 7, 2017 I feel like this is the way most of our threats have fallen apart this year. Start out looking nice then turn into squashed messes to the south. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RitualOfTheTrout Posted March 7, 2017 Share Posted March 7, 2017 Just now, dj3 said: I feel like this is the way most of our threats have fallen apart this year. Start out looking nice then turn into squashed messes to the south. It doesn't help that all these waves are coming out of the Northern stream, no help at all from a southern vort phasing in. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
colonel717 Posted March 7, 2017 Share Posted March 7, 2017 CMC Tuesday Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dj3 Posted March 7, 2017 Share Posted March 7, 2017 4 minutes ago, RitualOfTheTrout said: It doesn't help that all these waves are coming out of the Northern stream, no help at all from a southern vort phasing in. I feel like the better trends for Thu/Fri wave have coincided with a weakening of the Sat/Sun wave. Now another wave is showing up Tuesday. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
colonel717 Posted March 7, 2017 Share Posted March 7, 2017 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rd9108 Posted March 7, 2017 Share Posted March 7, 2017 3 minutes ago, colonel717 said: Insane amount of tracking we have for the next few weeks. Gfs develops a block by day 10. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
colonel717 Posted March 7, 2017 Share Posted March 7, 2017 UKIE Looks good for Wave 1 as long as temps are good Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jwilson Posted March 7, 2017 Share Posted March 7, 2017 I'm fully prepared to miss W1 to the north and W2 to the south. Maybe the third is the eventual "winner" if it hangs around. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
colonel717 Posted March 7, 2017 Share Posted March 7, 2017 Quote GFS Run analysisLast 8 runs looking at forecast valid Thursday morning at 12Z. The Pacific cutoff changes little. The H5 trough along the British Columbia trough shifts WNW with each run. Our energy package estimate is fairly consistent. The BC trough, as it clears out WNW allows western US ridge to be stronger each run. Energy hits the ridge and is flattened a little more due to the stronger ridge. Stronger ridge adds more north/south component to the stream. Weaker energy arriving east coast can't developTrajectory points this further south.Doesn't appear at this valid time there are other components which could influence the model solution outcome, but will jump forward another 24 hours and take a look. I'm trying to understand the south track shift and explain why the model is doing it run after run. I don't see a major "a-ha" yet, but I also know our energy source hasn't been and won't be sampled well throughout the next 5 days. We are truly at the mercy of waiting to see how this energy piece comes out and approaches the coastline Friday. Friday morning 12Z GFS analysisJames Bay Cutoff (PV) driving south with each run with exception of most recent 12Z run. With the western ridge stronger and PV to the east further south the trajectory vector changes a little more south. The 12 run this morning appeared to show slight different solution there, and we have to see if this starts a new trend. Meanwhile the Pacific energy is coming ashore, and actually, landfall each of last 8 runs has been migrating north, in response to the BC trough moving NW. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
colonel717 Posted March 7, 2017 Share Posted March 7, 2017 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
colonel717 Posted March 7, 2017 Share Posted March 7, 2017 EURO wave 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MikeB_01 Posted March 7, 2017 Share Posted March 7, 2017 Wave 1 is certainly trending better that previous runs of the Euro. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
colonel717 Posted March 7, 2017 Share Posted March 7, 2017 3 minutes ago, MikeB_01 said: Wave 1 is certainly trending better that previous runs of the Euro. We are going to need that with the way wave 2 has trended. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MikeB_01 Posted March 7, 2017 Share Posted March 7, 2017 Just now, colonel717 said: We are going to need that with the way wave 2 has trended. Do you think with wave 1 trending further north that could mean that wave 2 responds to come further north with less suppression? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rd9108 Posted March 7, 2017 Share Posted March 7, 2017 5 minutes ago, MikeB_01 said: Do you think with wave 1 trending further north that could mean that wave 2 responds to come further north with less suppression? That's what the experts think. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MikeB_01 Posted March 7, 2017 Share Posted March 7, 2017 Just now, Rd9108 said: That's what the experts think. Lets hope Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
colonel717 Posted March 7, 2017 Share Posted March 7, 2017 7 minutes ago, MikeB_01 said: Do you think with wave 1 trending further north that could mean that wave 2 responds to come further north with less suppression? Its being suppressed because its so darn weak. Only way it comes north is if we can juice it up. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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