Mailman Posted March 7, 2017 Share Posted March 7, 2017 4 minutes ago, snowsux said: Every threat in March has been compared to that storm ever since it happened. "We're due." Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MikeB_01 Posted March 7, 2017 Share Posted March 7, 2017 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
north pgh Posted March 7, 2017 Author Share Posted March 7, 2017 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MikeB_01 Posted March 7, 2017 Share Posted March 7, 2017 Just now, north pgh said: haha can you tell we are model watching yet? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowsux Posted March 7, 2017 Share Posted March 7, 2017 1 hour ago, Mailman said: "We're due." Unless you leech off your relatives and don't own anything but a late 90's Cavalier, I dunno why you'd be giddy at all about a repeat of that event. It's not very fun when your roof collapses and then your basement floods a week later, but to each their own I guess. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MikeB_01 Posted March 7, 2017 Share Posted March 7, 2017 1 minute ago, snowsux said: Unless you leech off your relatives and don't own anything but a late 90's Cavalier, I dunno why you'd be giddy at all about a repeat of that event. It's not very fun when your roof collapses and then your basement floods a week later, but to each their own I guess. I don't think anyone here wishes that on anyone. Just people who get excited over the idea of a lot of snow. Sorry about your misfortune with that storm Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowsux Posted March 7, 2017 Share Posted March 7, 2017 1 minute ago, MikeB_01 said: I don't think anyone here wishes that on anyone. Just people who get excited over the idea of a lot of snow. Sorry about your misfortune with that storm I was 15 when that happened, so I actually thought it was kinda cool. I do remember the lingering mess / mud that lasted well into spring though. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MikeB_01 Posted March 7, 2017 Share Posted March 7, 2017 New GFS is further south Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowsux Posted March 7, 2017 Share Posted March 7, 2017 GFS looks suppressed on the 2nd wave FWIW Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowsux Posted March 7, 2017 Share Posted March 7, 2017 Look at the way the temps have evolved for FRI. A few runs ago the first wave was more rain. Now it's all snow, which means front is moving in faster. We pay for the early action with suppression of the second wave. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rd9108 Posted March 7, 2017 Share Posted March 7, 2017 Lol gfs gives north Carolina a huge storm. I guess its their year. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MikeB_01 Posted March 7, 2017 Share Posted March 7, 2017 Good news for us is that this storm still doesn't even make it on the shore until friday morning. The models are guessing right now. Still plenty of time. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MikeB_01 Posted March 7, 2017 Share Posted March 7, 2017 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rd9108 Posted March 7, 2017 Share Posted March 7, 2017 1 minute ago, MikeB_01 said: If that would verify that might be the end of this hobby for me. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rd9108 Posted March 7, 2017 Share Posted March 7, 2017 What worries me is the trend is south south south. Seriously this thing might just get squashed into oblivion Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MikeB_01 Posted March 7, 2017 Share Posted March 7, 2017 Just now, Rd9108 said: What worries me is the trend is south south south. Seriously this thing might just get squashed into oblivion I have a feeling this is going to wobble back and forth all the way up to the event. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
north pgh Posted March 7, 2017 Author Share Posted March 7, 2017 12 hours ago, north pgh said: Yep. If we can hold this pattern we get a 2-4 exhibition on the Clipper and then move this baby North for Sunday and we have our big one. Of course being cautious as we all know that this only verifies about 10% of the time for our area. haha So right this was. Not even 10%. As usual a good day of models immediately shifts to bad. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MikeB_01 Posted March 7, 2017 Share Posted March 7, 2017 3 minutes ago, Rd9108 said: What worries me is the trend is south south south. Seriously this thing might just get squashed into oblivion Speaking of squashed into oblivion. CMC is well... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rd9108 Posted March 7, 2017 Share Posted March 7, 2017 6 minutes ago, MikeB_01 said: Speaking of squashed into oblivion. CMC is well... Still time but a PV in Maine probably won't work for us. Maybe there is some northern energy not shown that phases in. Who knows but suppression depression is the issue at hand right now. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rd9108 Posted March 7, 2017 Share Posted March 7, 2017 I also decided to look back at the January threat and it had the same thing a huge hit for us then the next went south. This was a huge mid atlantic hit but then it just kept going south. Just doesn't make any sense. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowsux Posted March 7, 2017 Share Posted March 7, 2017 22 minutes ago, Rd9108 said: I also decided to look back at the January threat and it had the same thing a huge hit for us then the next went south. This was a huge mid atlantic hit but then it just kept going south. Just doesn't make any sense. This has happened to us before in March. A strong arctic air mass bearing down on the NE isn't a very good setup with these systems that come out of the PAC NW. The precip will more or less ride that frontal boundary. If it passes on Friday (which it's forecast to do), we'll get more out of that first wave of energy than with the 2nd, bigger one. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Mailman Posted March 7, 2017 Share Posted March 7, 2017 Euro is a miss on both waves. Heh. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RitualOfTheTrout Posted March 7, 2017 Share Posted March 7, 2017 5 hours ago, Mailman said: Euro is a miss on both waves. Heh. No surprise there, its been trending further South and weaker, here is an animation I found at the PhillyWx forum showing the GFS precip fields: 6z GFS still looks decent for the first wave but its concerning none of the other models really show this: Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RitualOfTheTrout Posted March 7, 2017 Share Posted March 7, 2017 5 hours ago, Mailman said: Euro is a miss on both waves. Heh. No surprise there, its been trending further South and weaker, here is an animation I found at the PhillyWx forum showing the GFS precip fields: 6z GFS still looks decent for the first wave but its concerning none of the other models really show this: Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
colonel717 Posted March 7, 2017 Share Posted March 7, 2017 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
colonel717 Posted March 7, 2017 Share Posted March 7, 2017 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
colonel717 Posted March 7, 2017 Share Posted March 7, 2017 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
colonel717 Posted March 7, 2017 Share Posted March 7, 2017 NAM looks juicy but warm tongue death? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rd9108 Posted March 7, 2017 Share Posted March 7, 2017 30 minutes ago, colonel717 said: NAM looks juicy but warm tongue death? Not every wave is gonna hit us. The further north wave 1 is the more likely wave 2 will come further north. Funny how Josh on usa is all happy now that the NAM is north again. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
colonel717 Posted March 7, 2017 Share Posted March 7, 2017 Still about 60 hrs from this affecting us so good to see potential still there. SREFS really picked up Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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