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Pittsburgh PA Winter 2016-2017


north pgh

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CFS loves 3/15 thru 3/25.  I know... I know....B) We have over an inch snow cover for 10 days.  Still shows 9 inches as of 3/25 at the end of the run. That is more consecutive days than we had all winter.  As we know doubtful to happen but provides some hope winter may not be over for those who want it to continue.  I know some are saying goodbye to winter with this great weather but if we can pull a 10 day below normal stretch in March, I am all in.  There are now apparently 11 other months during the year to enjoy spring/summer temps... 

snod.conus.png

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7 minutes ago, colonel717 said:

CFS loves 3/15 thru 3/25.  I know... I know....B) We have over an inch snow cover for 10 days.  Still shows 9 inches as of 3/25 at the end of the run. That is more consecutive days than we had all winter.  As we know doubtful to happen but provides some hope winter may not be over for those who want it to continue.  I know some are saying goodbye to winter with this great weather but if we can pull a 10 day below normal stretch in March, I am all in.  There are now apparently 11 other months during the year to enjoy spring/summer temps... 

snod.conus.png

Yeah but unless we get a meaningful event it's just wasted cold. I'd rather be on the golf course. Just wipe our memory clean of this winter and start a new in 10 months. 

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19 minutes ago, Rd9108 said:

Yeah but unless we get a meaningful event it's just wasted cold. I'd rather be on the golf course. Just wipe our memory clean of this winter and start a new in 10 months. 

Yea, of course I want a meaningful event with it also.  There will be plenty of time for golf.

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Arctic Oscillation and Polar Vortex Analysis and Forecasts

February 21, 2017

Special blog on winter retrospective can be found here - http://www.aer.com/winter2016

Dr. Judah Cohen from Atmospheric and Environmental Research (AER) recently embarked on an experimental process of regular research, review, and analysis of the Arctic Oscillation (AO). This analysis is intended to provide researchers and practitioners real-time insights on one of North America’s and Europe’s leading drivers for extreme and persistent temperature patterns.

I plan  on updating the weather discussion every Monday.  Subscribe to our email list or follow me on Twitter (@judah47) for notification of updates.

Summary

  • The Arctic Oscillation (AO) is currently positive and is predicted to remain positive through the end of February and then turn negative in early March.
  • The current positive AO is reflective of negative pressure/geopotential height anomalies across the Arctic and mostly positive pressure/geopotential height anomalies across the mid-latitudes. The North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO) is also currently positive because of negative height anomalies near Iceland and Greenland.  However, the NAO is also predicted to trend negative in early March.
  • The current positive AO is consistent with more active vertical Wave Activity Flux (WAFz)/poleward heat transport.  As often is the case, the ongoing period of more active poleward heat transport is coinciding with mild temperatures for much of North America and Europe but cold temperatures for East Asia.
  • The more active poleward heat transport is forcing the third sudden stratospheric warming (SSW)/weak polar vortex (PV)/negative stratospheric AO event of the winter and even possibly an unprecedented second major mid-winter warming (reversal of the wind from westerly to easterly at 60°N and 10 hPa) of the month (two major warmings in the same month have never been observed).
  • The SSW/weak PV event will likely peak either the end of February or early March.  The circulation anomalies associated are predicted to descend from the stratosphere to the troposphere in early March.
  • Predicted changes in the tropospheric circulation in early March include a negative trend in the tropospheric AO and a cooling trend in temperatures for North America and/or Europe. 
  • I expect this trend to a more negative AO and cooler temperatures across the Eastern US and Europe to continue well into March, though the pattern for much of this winter argues against a persistently cold pattern especially in the Eastern US.

 

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My biggest issue is we haven't had prolonged cold at all this winter.  I'm fairly certain our longest cold outbreak was five days or so and that was back in December.  January and February have been nothing but transient cold and timing events just right.

I don't have a problem with getting more snow, but I am seriously ready to read this winter its last rites and move on.  It has been a real drag.

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13 hours ago, jwilson said:

My biggest issue is we haven't had prolonged cold at all this winter.  I'm fairly certain our longest cold outbreak was five days or so and that was back in December.  January and February have been nothing but transient cold and timing events just right.

I don't have a problem with getting more snow, but I am seriously ready to read this winter its last rites and move on.  It has been a real drag.

I'm ready for it to be over. Looking into Early March we stay warm, I have really enjoyed the warm temps. Friday could reach 75-80. Who wants cold after that? 

 

You guys posted this this stuff and said Feb was going to be cold and snowy. i have a hard time believing we get hammered in March or even get prolong cold. 

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On 2/10/2017 at 8:30 AM, MikeB_01 said:

Its soooooooo far way but i love the pattern for the first week of March.

 

Ive been hearing some chatter from some mets who are talking about a very warm end to the month of february. I dont see it with these weeklies or the teleconnections. Not sure what they are looking at.

 

Colonel, these maps make me miss my wxbell subscription. Thanks for sharing.

Guess the mets were right. 

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29 minutes ago, colonel717 said:

Yea, the 19th century was torch city.. Glad I wasn't around back then....  

So now you don't care about golf since you are chasing a triple phaser.... :)

In March my want for snow decreases but if we can get a decent even I'm still all for it. I'm a snow weenie and still love big events. 

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57 minutes ago, colonel717 said:

CFS...

snod.conus.png

Definitely some hints that we are heading into a pattern conducive to snow. Now whether things actually all come together is another story. Everyone called the Feb 15 pattern a slam dunk and we ended up missing the phase. 

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