psunate1977 Posted February 20, 2017 Share Posted February 20, 2017 Beautiful forecast Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rd9108 Posted February 20, 2017 Share Posted February 20, 2017 Well 12z gfs shows cold starting to show up after hr 200. Enjoy while you can because the cold is building back into Canada. I hope if it does get cold the cold retreats and we warm up for spring. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
colonel717 Posted February 20, 2017 Share Posted February 20, 2017 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
colonel717 Posted February 20, 2017 Share Posted February 20, 2017 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
colonel717 Posted February 20, 2017 Share Posted February 20, 2017 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
colonel717 Posted February 20, 2017 Share Posted February 20, 2017 2nd wave the next 24 hours is snow to rain Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rd9108 Posted February 21, 2017 Share Posted February 21, 2017 Huge change from a day ago. I doubt it's the final solution. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
colonel717 Posted February 21, 2017 Share Posted February 21, 2017 CFS loves 3/15 thru 3/25. I know... I know.... We have over an inch snow cover for 10 days. Still shows 9 inches as of 3/25 at the end of the run. That is more consecutive days than we had all winter. As we know doubtful to happen but provides some hope winter may not be over for those who want it to continue. I know some are saying goodbye to winter with this great weather but if we can pull a 10 day below normal stretch in March, I am all in. There are now apparently 11 other months during the year to enjoy spring/summer temps... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rd9108 Posted February 21, 2017 Share Posted February 21, 2017 7 minutes ago, colonel717 said: CFS loves 3/15 thru 3/25. I know... I know.... We have over an inch snow cover for 10 days. Still shows 9 inches as of 3/25 at the end of the run. That is more consecutive days than we had all winter. As we know doubtful to happen but provides some hope winter may not be over for those who want it to continue. I know some are saying goodbye to winter with this great weather but if we can pull a 10 day below normal stretch in March, I am all in. There are now apparently 11 other months during the year to enjoy spring/summer temps... Yeah but unless we get a meaningful event it's just wasted cold. I'd rather be on the golf course. Just wipe our memory clean of this winter and start a new in 10 months. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
colonel717 Posted February 21, 2017 Share Posted February 21, 2017 19 minutes ago, Rd9108 said: Yeah but unless we get a meaningful event it's just wasted cold. I'd rather be on the golf course. Just wipe our memory clean of this winter and start a new in 10 months. Yea, of course I want a meaningful event with it also. There will be plenty of time for golf. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MikeB_01 Posted February 21, 2017 Share Posted February 21, 2017 MJO still hinting at a cold pattern as well.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
colonel717 Posted February 21, 2017 Share Posted February 21, 2017 Quote Arctic Oscillation and Polar Vortex Analysis and Forecasts http://www.aer.com/science-research/climate-weather/arctic-oscillation February 21, 2017 Special blog on winter retrospective can be found here - http://www.aer.com/winter2016 Dr. Judah Cohen from Atmospheric and Environmental Research (AER) recently embarked on an experimental process of regular research, review, and analysis of the Arctic Oscillation (AO). This analysis is intended to provide researchers and practitioners real-time insights on one of North America’s and Europe’s leading drivers for extreme and persistent temperature patterns. I plan on updating the weather discussion every Monday. Subscribe to our email list or follow me on Twitter (@judah47) for notification of updates. Summary The Arctic Oscillation (AO) is currently positive and is predicted to remain positive through the end of February and then turn negative in early March. The current positive AO is reflective of negative pressure/geopotential height anomalies across the Arctic and mostly positive pressure/geopotential height anomalies across the mid-latitudes. The North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO) is also currently positive because of negative height anomalies near Iceland and Greenland. However, the NAO is also predicted to trend negative in early March. The current positive AO is consistent with more active vertical Wave Activity Flux (WAFz)/poleward heat transport. As often is the case, the ongoing period of more active poleward heat transport is coinciding with mild temperatures for much of North America and Europe but cold temperatures for East Asia. The more active poleward heat transport is forcing the third sudden stratospheric warming (SSW)/weak polar vortex (PV)/negative stratospheric AO event of the winter and even possibly an unprecedented second major mid-winter warming (reversal of the wind from westerly to easterly at 60°N and 10 hPa) of the month (two major warmings in the same month have never been observed). The SSW/weak PV event will likely peak either the end of February or early March. The circulation anomalies associated are predicted to descend from the stratosphere to the troposphere in early March. Predicted changes in the tropospheric circulation in early March include a negative trend in the tropospheric AO and a cooling trend in temperatures for North America and/or Europe. I expect this trend to a more negative AO and cooler temperatures across the Eastern US and Europe to continue well into March, though the pattern for much of this winter argues against a persistently cold pattern especially in the Eastern US. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jwilson Posted February 21, 2017 Share Posted February 21, 2017 My biggest issue is we haven't had prolonged cold at all this winter. I'm fairly certain our longest cold outbreak was five days or so and that was back in December. January and February have been nothing but transient cold and timing events just right. I don't have a problem with getting more snow, but I am seriously ready to read this winter its last rites and move on. It has been a real drag. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psunate1977 Posted February 22, 2017 Share Posted February 22, 2017 13 hours ago, jwilson said: My biggest issue is we haven't had prolonged cold at all this winter. I'm fairly certain our longest cold outbreak was five days or so and that was back in December. January and February have been nothing but transient cold and timing events just right. I don't have a problem with getting more snow, but I am seriously ready to read this winter its last rites and move on. It has been a real drag. I'm ready for it to be over. Looking into Early March we stay warm, I have really enjoyed the warm temps. Friday could reach 75-80. Who wants cold after that? You guys posted this this stuff and said Feb was going to be cold and snowy. i have a hard time believing we get hammered in March or even get prolong cold. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MikeB_01 Posted February 22, 2017 Share Posted February 22, 2017 Interesting to hear all the talk about this warmth. Still not even in the top 10 warmest Feb for our area. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
colonel717 Posted February 22, 2017 Share Posted February 22, 2017 GFS hints at bringing winter back. Especially the 1st full week of March temps below freezing whole week and night temps in single digits. Several snow chances also. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoraopolisWx Posted February 22, 2017 Share Posted February 22, 2017 1 hour ago, MikeB_01 said: Interesting to hear all the talk about this warmth. Still not even in the top 10 warmest Feb for our area. If you look at the forecasted temps, we'll be top 5 by Saturday, mabey top 3. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rd9108 Posted February 22, 2017 Share Posted February 22, 2017 12 minutes ago, CoraopolisWx said: If you look at the forecasted temps, we'll be top 5 by Saturday, mabey top 3. Probably couldn't even measure properly back in the 1800s. March is becoming interesting now. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
colonel717 Posted February 22, 2017 Share Posted February 22, 2017 25 minutes ago, Rd9108 said: Probably couldn't even measure properly back in the 1800s. March is becoming interesting now. Yea, the 19th century was torch city.. Glad I wasn't around back then.... So now you don't care about golf since you are chasing a triple phaser.... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psunate1977 Posted February 22, 2017 Share Posted February 22, 2017 2 hours ago, colonel717 said: GFS hints at bringing winter back. Especially the 1st full week of March temps below freezing whole week and night temps in single digits. Several snow chances also. what happened to you cold and snowy Feb that the models showed? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psunate1977 Posted February 22, 2017 Share Posted February 22, 2017 On 2/10/2017 at 8:30 AM, MikeB_01 said: Its soooooooo far way but i love the pattern for the first week of March. Ive been hearing some chatter from some mets who are talking about a very warm end to the month of february. I dont see it with these weeklies or the teleconnections. Not sure what they are looking at. Colonel, these maps make me miss my wxbell subscription. Thanks for sharing. Guess the mets were right. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rd9108 Posted February 22, 2017 Share Posted February 22, 2017 9 minutes ago, psunate1977 said: what happened to you cold and snowy Feb that the models showed? Everything looked good but even with amazing indices there was no cold air on this side of the globe. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rd9108 Posted February 22, 2017 Share Posted February 22, 2017 29 minutes ago, colonel717 said: Yea, the 19th century was torch city.. Glad I wasn't around back then.... So now you don't care about golf since you are chasing a triple phaser.... In March my want for snow decreases but if we can get a decent even I'm still all for it. I'm a snow weenie and still love big events. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MikeB_01 Posted February 22, 2017 Share Posted February 22, 2017 23 minutes ago, psunate1977 said: Guess the mets were right. First one to admit when i am wrong. Thats why I'm not a pro. From what I saw, thought feb would have been colder. I still like the first week of march though Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
KPITSnow Posted February 22, 2017 Share Posted February 22, 2017 Definitely some hints on the gfs for some storm potential in the next couple of weeks. Hopefully march os cold and snowy as this has been a dreadful winter so far. Hopefully we can salvage something. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
colonel717 Posted February 22, 2017 Share Posted February 22, 2017 CFS... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rd9108 Posted February 22, 2017 Share Posted February 22, 2017 57 minutes ago, colonel717 said: CFS... Definitely some hints that we are heading into a pattern conducive to snow. Now whether things actually all come together is another story. Everyone called the Feb 15 pattern a slam dunk and we ended up missing the phase. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
colonel717 Posted February 23, 2017 Share Posted February 23, 2017 More good trends on GFS. Looks to be setting up the cold and snowy pattern nicely. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CranberryWX Posted February 23, 2017 Share Posted February 23, 2017 Meanwhile it's thundering outside. ..lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
meatwad Posted February 23, 2017 Share Posted February 23, 2017 We could break the all time February High tomorrow, which was set in 1900. The foretasted high is 77 for tomorrow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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