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Pittsburgh PA Winter 2016-2017


north pgh

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1 hour ago, colonel717 said:

GFS starting to show lots of possibilities starting around 25th into March.   I really think we get an 8+ inch storm over the next month

gfsp_mslp_pcpn_frzn_us_49.png

The question is will it give us 8+ or will it make the rich richer. Its all the EPO driving this and that's not a bad thing. 

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15 hours ago, Rd9108 said:

The question is will it give us 8+ or will it make the rich richer. Its all the EPO driving this and that's not a bad thing. 

I will wait and get excited if this verifies 4 days out. 

IMO we have until the 13th to get a huge storm when days get longer it always seems to get tougher. 

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38 minutes ago, psunate1977 said:

I will wait and get excited if this verifies 4 days out. 

IMO we have until the 13th to get a huge storm when days get longer it always seems to get tougher. 

Well to play devil's advocate, we did have a 6 inch storm on the 26th of March in 2013, so it's possible to get one later. That was 2013 though.

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29 minutes ago, north pgh said:

It looks like the Penguins outdoor game at Heinz Field on Feb 25 is going to be another warm, rain event just like the last one. Maybe heavy rain too. That will really suck. They just can't win for snow and cold either.

If thats the case, they should sit Sid..Why risk injury in bad conditions. These outdoor games are becoming stupid. Actually looks like GFS has cold coming in late in day so maybe it wont be so bad.  

gfs_mslp_pcpn_frzn_us_34.png

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Coming up for the game next weekend, the trends look pretty good actually.  I have been watching this all week and it looks like the cold is trending fasting and the rain trending on ending earlier in the day.  Right now looks like maybe lower 40's - Mid 30's for puck drop. 

 

GO PENS!

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67 here in Monroeviille.

I'm ready for spring.

This Afternoon
Mostly sunny, with a high near 64. Southwest wind around 11 mph.
Tonight
Mostly cloudy, with a low around 44. Southwest wind 7 to 9 mph.
Sunday
Mostly sunny, with a high near 59. West wind 6 to 8 mph.
Sunday Night
Partly cloudy, with a low around 36. Northwest wind around 6 mph becoming calm in the evening.
Washington's Birthday
Mostly sunny, with a high near 59. Calm wind becoming northeast around 5 mph in the afternoon.
Monday Night
Partly cloudy, with a low around 39.
Tuesday
A chance of showers after 3pm. Mostly cloudy, with a high near 62. Chance of precipitation is 40%.
Tuesday Night
Showers likely, mainly before midnight. Mostly cloudy, with a low around 47. Chance of precipitation is 70%.
Wednesday
Partly sunny, with a high near 60.
Wednesday Night
Mostly cloudy, with a low around 47.
Thursday
Partly sunny, with a high near 63.
Thursday Night
A chance of showers. Mostly cloudy, with a low around 48. Chance of precipitation is 30%.
Friday
Partly sunny, with a high near 69.
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Quote

I don't usually like to use this phraseology, but I think some might be falling into the same traps of the past few months, namely, priotizing model guidance over pattern indicators, when it should be the reverse. The MJO will propagating rapidly through the eastern hemisphere, so eventually the Nina-esque retracted pattern may return, but I think models are still confused as far as the progression. We do not transition from p7 forcing to p2 without the extratropical impacts being realized. There should be a transient conducive window from the end of Feb through early March. Models will typically correct to solutions dictated by the background forcings. We shall see. Definitely room for one more event.

Hopefully we have one more interesting event to track this winter. In the mean time, I think people should refrain from expecting to see a snowstorm appear on every run of the GFS. We need to set the stage first, which is still about 9 days away.

The EPS is the best it's looked thus far as it now detects higher geopotential heights in the Arctic. Look for further corrections.

 

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Reached 68 here today. Wonder if all week will be a few degrees warmer then forecasted. I think my forecast high was 62 today. 

 

Anyways, was outside all day. Gorgeous out. 60's all week is going to kill winter hopes for me. Especially since we are getting towards Spring. 

 

Looks like one chilly day in the next 10 and rest of days well above normal temps. 

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On 2/18/2017 at 10:05 AM, north pgh said:

It would be nice to get the front through and get some snow in the air at least.

Looks like that has been the trend, by 18z Saturday 00z GFS has some light snow flurries in the air. Biggest thing though is to get the rain out of here and hopefully they can keep the ice in good shape between that and all the warmth before hand.

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9 hours ago, snowsux said:

....Then snow and cold surely returns, and lasts and lasts. JB sayeth it so, lol.

Just looking at the GFS, Midwest looks to get slammed with 3 big storms, we of course will be rain then a cold front verbatim. What happens after that we might get cold, but we will be heading into the second week of March by then. Unless we are going to get a big March bomb I'd rather just call it a winter and get some more days like yesterday and today. Put this season in the bank as a dud, at some point we gotta pay for 2010 getting almost 80 inches, regression to the mean and all that. Got a jump start on some outdoor spring projects yesterday, and wouldn't mind being able to put a few more weekends into them before April if its not going to snow.

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47 minutes ago, RitualOfTheTrout said:

Just looking at the GFS, Midwest looks to get slammed with 3 big storms, we of course will be rain then a cold front verbatim. What happens after that we might get cold, but we will be heading into the second week of March by then. Unless we are going to get a big March bomb I'd rather just call it a winter and get some more days like yesterday and today. Put this season in the bank as a dud, at some point we gotta pay for 2010 getting almost 80 inches, regression to the mean and all that. Got a jump start on some outdoor spring projects yesterday, and wouldn't mind being able to put a few more weekends into them before April if its not going to snow.

This is my feeling too. I love to get a big storm, but it's time to face the facts that it's not going to happen and this winter is pretty much dead. I didn't hit the slope once this season, I would have liked too, and was excited when JB said Feb could be cold and snowy, but he was wrong again. I love his enthusiasm, but he is just so wrong that it almost makes him unreadable on his crap. 

 

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8 minutes ago, psunate1977 said:

This is my feeling too. I love to get a big storm, but it's time to face the facts that it's not going to happen and this winter is pretty much dead. I didn't hit the slope once this season, I would have liked too, and was excited when JB said Feb could be cold and snowy, but he was wrong again. I love his enthusiasm, but he is just so wrong that it almost makes him unreadable on his crap. 

 

JB actually admitted he was wrong on his daily update. He said he didn't think the Pacific jet would kill any cold that tried to enter. 

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2 minutes ago, Rd9108 said:

JB actually admitted he was wrong on his daily update. He said he didn't think the Pacific jet would kill any cold that tried to enter. 

I'm glad he admitted he was wrong. His analysis of what actually happened is pretty interesting. Still looking into the Euro MJO, he thinks March is going to be colder and snowier. We shall see. Hard to want it after driving with the windows down yesterday B)

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7 hours ago, psunate1977 said:

This is my feeling too. I love to get a big storm, but it's time to face the facts that it's not going to happen and this winter is pretty much dead. I didn't hit the slope once this season, I would have liked too, and was excited when JB said Feb could be cold and snowy, but he was wrong again. I love his enthusiasm, but he is just so wrong that it almost makes him unreadable on his crap. 

 

Joe Bastardi and WB works to serve corporations by bolstering energy futures. That's their only objective. The people who buy the premium subscriptions for the fancy maps and his snow lover erotica diatribes are just icing on the cake for them, and he's laughing all the way to the bank. He used to be a good LR forecaster, I'll give him that. The fact remains though that his reputation consists of a bachelor's degree from 40 years ago and his quirky, cocky "I'm a power liftin' weatherman who doesn't believe in global warming" persona that's staler at this point than a Ritz cracker from the commissary at Alcatraz. 

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