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Pittsburgh PA Winter 2016-2017


north pgh

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7 minutes ago, psunate1977 said:

He has made mistakes like every pro, but honestly I think he is pretty knowledgeable. 

He's knowledgeable but just very harsh on social media to the point of attacking people. He also thought it was a good idea to post political mumbo jumbo and then say he was hacked once people freaked out. His videos are awesome but he hugs the Euro like crazy. 

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59 minutes ago, Rd9108 said:

He's knowledgeable but just very harsh on social media to the point of attacking people. He also thought it was a good idea to post political mumbo jumbo and then say he was hacked once people freaked out. His videos are awesome but he hugs the Euro like crazy. 

Yea, I quit following him on twitter due to politics stuff.   

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1 hour ago, Rd9108 said:

If you want cold and snow, well the 12z gfs doesn't a sign of snow all the way until March 1. This could change but once again the good pattern that was supposed to happen is not coming to fruition.

Trying not to be the Debbie Downer here, but we should probably feel fortunate that we actually got something decent from that last system. It was still a bit of a fringe job, but not as bad as the other fringe jobs we've seen. We know how this winter has gone up until now. One decent snowfall isn't going to suddenly give us a great chance at a foot. I just ignore any kind of fantasy storm that happens to pop up two weeks away because you know it's going to change. Always does at that range. Like you said, every time we hear about a good pattern for us, it changes and turns to nothing. If something pops up a week away or less, that's different. Otherwise, you're setting yourself up for disappointment if you get excited over a fantasy storm two weeks away on some model or models that are almost never right, especially at that long range.

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3 hours ago, Rd9108 said:

He's knowledgeable but just very harsh on social media to the point of attacking people. He also thought it was a good idea to post political mumbo jumbo and then say he was hacked once people freaked out. His videos are awesome but he hugs the Euro like crazy. 

I can't stand the guy. He's knowledgeable, but for me it doesn't make up for acting like an ass all the time.

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I might be as bad as JB at wishcasting, but here is something to keep your spirits lit with just a little bit of hope. Whats life without hope?

This reanalysis is from end of february 1965. A neutral ENSO after a few months in a weak la nina and moving towards a moderate el nino. Interesting enough, I found this time to be a relatively negative PNA which is what the GFS is forecasting for us to move into around the end of the month.  Usually that means a big ridge over us, however, this particular time period yielded the trough in the east. Not sure how that works,but here is the anomaly map.

Enjoy and hope

Screen Shot 2017-02-13 at 9.42.23 PM.png

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1 hour ago, MikeB_01 said:

I might be as bad as JB at wishcasting, but here is something to keep your spirits lit with just a little bit of hope. Whats life without hope?

This reanalysis is from end of february 1965. A neutral ENSO after a few months in a weak la nina and moving towards a moderate el nino. Interesting enough, I found this time to be a relatively negative PNA which is what the GFS is forecasting for us to move into around the end of the month.  Usually that means a big ridge over us, however, this particular time period yielded the trough in the east. Not sure how that works,but here is the anomaly map.

Enjoy and hope

Screen Shot 2017-02-13 at 9.42.23 PM.png

Unless you have some sort of medical condition that makes 55 degree weather unbearable for you, why on earth would you be "wishcasting" for this in Pittsburgh....in March? Without true arctic air available (lol, this year), all that would essentially do is give us wind-whipped cloudy 40 degree weather with sleet and rain. Good God man, why?

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51 minutes ago, snowsux said:

Unless you have some sort of medical condition that makes 55 degree weather unbearable for you, why on earth would you be "wishcasting" for this in Pittsburgh....in March? Without true arctic air available (lol, this year), all that would essentially do is give us wind-whipped cloudy 40 degree weather with sleet and rain. Good God man, why?

Trust me, I like the warmth as much as anyone. Always look forward to the warm up and spring storms when they come. That being said, I was simply pointing out that the potential pattern is still there. While we will have some torch days (probably more than not) and cold days, a significant late season storm is still possible.

I found another reanalysis for a march set up. It looks similar (just a little further west) to the set up i posted earlier which occurred in 1965. Without any "true arctic air", 1942 produced the 6th most snow in Pittsburgh for March. 18.3 in. 

I'm not an expert. I just started looking into analogs and found them interesting. Take it for what you will

Screen Shot 2017-02-14 at 12.22.12 AM.png

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57 minutes ago, jwilson said:

A week of 60+ weather in February has me ready to give up on the winter.  Big storms in March don't do a lot for me, anyway.

A warm winter and cold spring is about as bad as it gets.

I am with you. This is going to be tough to want a snow storm after a week of this. 

IMG_1286.PNG

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1 hour ago, Rd9108 said:

Something tells me it's gonna get warm for a bit and everyone will say winter is over but it's only March. I could see us getting one more storm and April be cold and rainy. 

At least down here we managed snow on three separate days in April last year, including an inch on the 9th.  We were completely shut-out in December and March.

I agree it would be premature to say winter is over; February looks dead in the water, at least right now, and that just feels appropriate considering this winter.  I think intermittent cold is still quite plausible through April, but of course the warm spikes are fairly volatile.  The only consistent thing this winter has been lack of consistency: no patterns get locked in for extended periods of time.

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5 hours ago, Rd9108 said:

Something tells me it's gonna get warm for a bit and everyone will say winter is over but it's only March. I could see us getting one more storm and April be cold and rainy. 

No more than usual IMO. Our springs suck here anyway usually. Nothing sticking out that suggest anything beyond typical Pittsburgh suckage going into spring.

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On 2/13/2017 at 1:53 AM, Rd9108 said:

DT in his latest video essentially said winter is over. The PV doesn't want to cooperate and the Pacific jet is just killing the east coast. Almost time to go into hibernation for the spring and summer. 

So now he is saying essentially winter returns in March.

FROM DT -

 President's Day Weekend coming up fast and it looks very NOT wintry - MAJOR Midwest / New England LOW likely FEB 23-24-25 could bring significant severe weather outbreak to Midwest rain to the East coast -- More and More Data shows MARCH 2017 will be COLD... but how cold? --Cold enough for one last Hurrah?

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On 2/14/2017 at 3:07 PM, Rd9108 said:

It may only mute the warmup temporarily but I wouldn't mind one last final hurrah before spring. 

Hopefully we avoid the loop back to phase 7... I think progressing into phase 1 would be better. Looks like some of the outlooks have it doing just that, albeit weakening as it does so:

ECMF_phase_51m_full.gif

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On 2/14/2017 at 10:48 AM, psunate1977 said:

I am with you. This is going to be tough to want a snow storm after a week of this. 

IMG_1286.PNG

I think the most impressive part of this is not only will we likely make it into the 60s, but its going to be relatively dry for 4-5 days. It will be hard to switch gears back to winter weather mode after that stretch. Gotta roll with what mother nature provides though, if we get another shot at a bigger storm I'll be all in. Heard JB was touting march 58 / 93 at one point! :rolleyes:

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3 hours ago, RitualOfTheTrout said:

I think the most impressive part of this is not only will we likely make it into the 60s, but its going to be relatively dry for 4-5 days. It will be hard to switch gears back to winter weather mode after that stretch. Gotta roll with what mother nature provides though, if we get another shot at a bigger storm I'll be all in. Heard JB was touting march 58 / 93 at one point! :rolleyes:

Warm and dry that's a new one. Maybe for the last part of winter it becomes cold and snowy. I won't lie though this next stretch will have me wanting warmer temps to stay. 

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2 hours ago, MikeB_01 said:

Pretty strong indication of a pattern switch showing up on the GFS. Even with the ridge over us, the strong ridge building up by alaska is usually an indicator for a trough to dive down over the eastern US. 

Weather models continue to predict another #polarvortex disruption even a major warming. Too little too late or 1 final act of winter left?

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