psunate1977 Posted February 13, 2017 Share Posted February 13, 2017 Weirdest winter. Looks like we get storms, then wind, then could colder with no moisture, then a 5-6 day period of 60+ Seriously at this point just get me to spring and warm weather if we aren't going to get a bigger snow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MikeB_01 Posted February 13, 2017 Share Posted February 13, 2017 8 minutes ago, psunate1977 said: Weirdest winter. Looks like we get storms, then wind, then could colder with no moisture, then a 5-6 day period of 60+ Seriously at this point just get me to spring and warm weather if we aren't going to get a bigger snow. try to believe! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Mailman Posted February 13, 2017 Share Posted February 13, 2017 BULLETIN - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED Severe Thunderstorm Warning National Weather Service Pittsburgh PA 759 PM EST SUN FEB 12 2017 The National Weather Service in Pittsburgh has issued a * Severe Thunderstorm Warning for... Washington County in southwestern Pennsylvania... Southern Indiana County in west central Pennsylvania... Southeastern Allegheny County in southwestern Pennsylvania... Westmoreland County in southwestern Pennsylvania... Northern Greene County in southwestern Pennsylvania... Fayette County in southwestern Pennsylvania... * Until 900 PM EST. * At 758 PM EST, severe thunderstorms were located along a line extending from near Blairsville to 7 miles southeast of Valley Grove, moving east at 45 mph. HAZARD...60 mph wind gusts. SOURCE...Radar. IMPACT...Expect damage to trees and power lines, resulting in some power outages. * Locations impacted include... Pittsburgh... Penn Hills... Bethel Park... Monroeville... McMurray... Greensburg... McKeesport... Washington... Uniontown... Jeannette... Canonsburg... Latrobe... This includes the following highways... Interstate 70 in Pennsylvania between mile markers 0 and 57. Pennsylvania Turnpike between mile markers 55 and 100. Interstate 79 in Pennsylvania between mile markers 10 and 21, and between mile markers 155 and 176. PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS... Move to an interior room on the lowest floor of a building. Please report severe weather by calling 412-262- 1988, posting to the NWS Pittsburgh Facebook page, or using Twitter @NWSPITTSBURGH. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RitualOfTheTrout Posted February 13, 2017 Share Posted February 13, 2017 2 hours ago, MikeB_01 said: I'm not ready to give up on this week either. A very small change in the positions of energy can make a big difference. If the energy in Texas can get out ahead of the energy just north of us, i bet they phase and go up closer to the coast instead of OTS. One of the analogs of this set up shows a nice snowfall for us. Not saying its likely, but still trying to keep some hope on this week. They thing I find interesting is how "sure" the models have been in indicating this will be nothing but northern stream driven. Sure the Euro showed a few close calls, but overall there has been little support other than analogs saying the 500mb pattern is conducive for a big storm. Such a shame to waste a good look which seems to be the more and more likely outcome. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RitualOfTheTrout Posted February 13, 2017 Share Posted February 13, 2017 1 hour ago, MikeB_01 said: Kind of unbelievable,but this just came through... BULLETIN - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED Severe Thunderstorm Warning National Weather Service Pittsburgh PA 702 PM EST SUN FEB 12 2017 The National Weather Service in Pittsburgh has issued a * Severe Thunderstorm Warning for... Northern Jefferson County in east central Ohio... Southeastern Columbiana County in east central Ohio... Northwestern Washington County in southwestern Pennsylvania... Beaver County in western Pennsylvania... Southern Lawrence County in western Pennsylvania... Indiana County in west central Pennsylvania... Southern Butler County in west central Pennsylvania... Allegheny County in southwestern Pennsylvania... Northwestern Westmoreland County in southwestern Pennsylvania... Armstrong County in west central Pennsylvania... Hancock County in northern West Virginia... * Until 800 PM EST. * At 701 PM EST, severe thunderstorms were located along a line extending from near Meridian to near Toronto, moving east at 50 mph. HAZARD...60 mph wind gusts. SOURCE...Radar. IMPACT...Expect damage to trees and power lines, resulting in some power outages. * Locations impacted include... Pittsburgh... Penn Hills... Mount Lebanon... Bethel Park... Ross Township... McCandless Township... Monroeville... Cranberry... Moon Township... Greensburg... Weirton... McKeesport... This includes the following highways... Pennsylvania Turnpike between mile markers 15 and 69. Interstate 79 in Pennsylvania between mile markers 25 and 66. Parkway North between mile markers 1 and 13. PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS... Move to an interior room on the lowest floor of a building. Please report severe weather by calling 412-262- 1988, posting to the NWS Pittsburgh Facebook page, or using Twitter @NWSPITTSBURGH. && LAT...LON 4028 7962 4046 8092 4093 8008 4088 7881 4077 7881 TIME...MOT...LOC 0001Z 275DEG 45KT 4088 7999 4046 8067 HAIL...<.75IN WIND...60MPH Clearly January and February are the new April... Even the snow we have gotten has resembled April, a one or 2 day cold shot then into the 50s and 60s I had a flash of lightening and a some thunder rumbling earlier, wasn't even expecting this. Wife is flying in from Miami on only her second time flying, will be landing around 10:30.. I wonder what that experience will be like! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RitualOfTheTrout Posted February 13, 2017 Share Posted February 13, 2017 48 minutes ago, psunate1977 said: Weirdest winter. Looks like we get storms, then wind, then could colder with no moisture, then a 5-6 day period of 60+ Seriously at this point just get me to spring and warm weather if we aren't going to get a bigger snow. Like it or not I think we see another "cold" period end of Feb \ early March after the torch next weekend. Maybe we can score something then assuming we don't luck into something sooner. It really has been a few islands of cold in a sea of warmth this winter. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rd9108 Posted February 13, 2017 Share Posted February 13, 2017 How just how. I really don't understand how we can go into a record breaking MJO phase 8 and still not get a period of cold weather. Something has to give, I wanna stay positive but this week storm needs huge changes for us to be in the game. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MikeB_01 Posted February 13, 2017 Share Posted February 13, 2017 1 minute ago, Rd9108 said: How just how. I really don't understand how we can go into a record breaking MJO phase 8 and still not get a period of cold weather. Something has to give, I wanna stay positive but this week storm needs huge changes for us to be in the game. This is what I am saying. I dont see how everything can be in line like it is and the models be showing torches for the next few weeks. It makes no sense. That is why I have been spending so mch time looking into analogs. They show other wise. I think we still have at least a few more chances to score. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RitualOfTheTrout Posted February 13, 2017 Share Posted February 13, 2017 Just now, Rd9108 said: How just how. I really don't understand how we can go into a record breaking MJO phase 8 and still not get a period of cold weather. Something has to give, I wanna stay positive but this week storm needs huge changes for us to be in the game. Problem is its fighting a hostile background state. That being said the PAC Jet is the problem for the upcoming storm in my opinion, its blasting onto the west coast making the ridge more progressive, thus our trough axis is to far east so the phase happens, just to late for us. You could probably sprinkle in some bad luck in timing of the shortwaves too. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rd9108 Posted February 13, 2017 Share Posted February 13, 2017 6 minutes ago, RitualOfTheTrout said: Problem is its fighting a hostile background state. That being said the PAC Jet is the problem for the upcoming storm in my opinion, its blasting onto the west coast making the ridge more progressive, thus our trough axis is to far east so the phase happens, just to late for us. You could probably sprinkle in some bad luck in timing of the shortwaves too. Yeah it's been like that all winter. I just find it hard to believe that a possible 4 times in 50 year MJO won't drive the pattern. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MikeB_01 Posted February 13, 2017 Share Posted February 13, 2017 1 minute ago, Rd9108 said: Yeah it's been like that all winter. I just find it hard to believe that a possible 4 times in 50 year MJO won't drive the pattern. I still think the pattern that you want clicks in. We may not get the storm, but i bet the pattern shows itself instead of all of these torch looks. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
north pgh Posted February 13, 2017 Author Share Posted February 13, 2017 50 mph wind gusts! Had some lightning earlier. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RitualOfTheTrout Posted February 13, 2017 Share Posted February 13, 2017 15 minutes ago, MikeB_01 said: I still think the pattern that you want clicks in. We may not get the storm, but i bet the pattern shows itself instead of all of these torch looks. You could be right, currently we are still in phase 7, so maybe once we get into 8, and it starts affecting the pattern we see models make a quick turn towards a more favorable look. GEFS and EC have it going strong in phase 8, but then diverge with GEFS weakening it and looping back to phase 7 while EC weakens but continues into phase 1. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CranberryWX Posted February 13, 2017 Share Posted February 13, 2017 Lightning and thunder to intense wind and now snow all within about an hour. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RitualOfTheTrout Posted February 13, 2017 Share Posted February 13, 2017 Rain just turned to snow like someone flipped a light switch... under an intense squall right now.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CranberryWX Posted February 13, 2017 Share Posted February 13, 2017 There are lightning strikes showing up in the next squall coming down. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MikeB_01 Posted February 13, 2017 Share Posted February 13, 2017 So i'm debating a subscription to Eurowx.com for the next month or so to give the euro a look. Anyone every use it before? Does it have the ensemble as well? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rd9108 Posted February 13, 2017 Share Posted February 13, 2017 25 minutes ago, MikeB_01 said: So i'm debating a subscription to Eurowx.com for the next month or so to give the euro a look. Anyone every use it before? Does it have the ensemble as well? Try the free trial they give you. I think wxbell does a week also. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MikeB_01 Posted February 13, 2017 Share Posted February 13, 2017 Try the free trial they give you. I think wxbell does a week also. I had wxbell and loved it. Problem is money. Too expensive. Eurowx is much cheaper. It if it doesn't have the ensemble, weeklies and all the extras with it, it's probably not worth it either. Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowsux Posted February 13, 2017 Share Posted February 13, 2017 3 hours ago, MikeB_01 said: This is what I am saying. I dont see how everything can be in line like it is and the models be showing torches for the next few weeks. It makes no sense. That is why I have been spending so mch time looking into analogs. They show other wise. I think we still have at least a few more chances to score. It's me. I jinx every storm I track. The last one I obsessively tracked was Jonas, and look what happened. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rd9108 Posted February 13, 2017 Share Posted February 13, 2017 From isotherm Keep in mind there is about a one week lag with MJO forcing, and 8 entering 1 is much more favorable than 7 entering 8. So if we're talking about the MJO as an indicator in and of itself, the real time frame to monitor is the last 4-5 days of the month. The indices in a concurrent state of favorability doesn't automatically produce snow either; the more micro-scale details can ruin things. The primary problem in my opinion is the orientation and rapid eastward progression of the upstream ridging. If we aligned the spike further west w/ a slightly more meridional structure the PV lobe would have phased w/ the sern vort sufficiently far west to induce East Coast height rises and thus coastal cyclogenesis. It's all transpiring just a little too far east, actually because of the strong phase 7 MJO forcing in my opinion Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
north pgh Posted February 13, 2017 Author Share Posted February 13, 2017 currently under the band with whiteout conditions and winds gusting over 40 mph. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SteelCity08 Posted February 13, 2017 Share Posted February 13, 2017 55 minutes ago, north pgh said: currently under the band with whiteout conditions and winds gusting over 40 mph. Those squalls are no joke Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rd9108 Posted February 13, 2017 Share Posted February 13, 2017 DT in his latest video essentially said winter is over. The PV doesn't want to cooperate and the Pacific jet is just killing the east coast. Almost time to go into hibernation for the spring and summer. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psunate1977 Posted February 13, 2017 Share Posted February 13, 2017 Wouldn't shock me. As much as I want a big snow, a 5 day stretch of 60 degree weather will be hard to come back to winter from. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MikeB_01 Posted February 13, 2017 Share Posted February 13, 2017 6 hours ago, Rd9108 said: DT in his latest video essentially said winter is over. The PV doesn't want to cooperate and the Pacific jet is just killing the east coast. Almost time to go into hibernation for the spring and summer. Just for reference, who is DT? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
colonel717 Posted February 13, 2017 Share Posted February 13, 2017 13 minutes ago, MikeB_01 said: Just for reference, who is DT? https://www.facebook.com/WxRisk/ https://www.wxrisk.com/ Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MikeB_01 Posted February 13, 2017 Share Posted February 13, 2017 1 hour ago, colonel717 said: https://www.facebook.com/WxRisk/ https://www.wxrisk.com/ Oh yea, I've seen some of his stuff before. He is the one that can never figure out what county Pittsburgh is in. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psunate1977 Posted February 13, 2017 Share Posted February 13, 2017 17 minutes ago, MikeB_01 said: Oh yea, I've seen some of his stuff before. He is the one that can never figure out what county Pittsburgh is in. He has made mistakes like every pro, but honestly I think he is pretty knowledgeable. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
KPITSnow Posted February 13, 2017 Share Posted February 13, 2017 24 minutes ago, MikeB_01 said: Oh yea, I've seen some of his stuff before. He is the one that can never figure out what county Pittsburgh is in. He does tend to focus more on the mid Atlantic. His totals out our way always seem fairly off. Had us all in the 1-3 range for the last event when it should have been 3-6. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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