colonel717 Posted February 10, 2017 Share Posted February 10, 2017 Need this cluster about 250-500 miles west for that woody to verify otherwise we get the shaft again..... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rd9108 Posted February 10, 2017 Share Posted February 10, 2017 11 minutes ago, colonel717 said: Need this cluster about 250-500 miles west for that woody to verify otherwise we get the shaft again..... Yeah if I was on the east coast id be pumped for this threat but it just smells like a benchmark crusher. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MikeB_01 Posted February 10, 2017 Share Posted February 10, 2017 http://www.americanwx.com/forum/index.php?/topic/5459-no-retreat-no-surrender/ Really cool by JB. Like Colonel said, the forum is full of a bunch of new englanders, but usually has good maps and discussion. Also, stumbled on this story from JB. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rd9108 Posted February 10, 2017 Share Posted February 10, 2017 1 hour ago, MikeB_01 said: http://www.americanwx.com/forum/index.php?/topic/5459-no-retreat-no-surrender/ Really cool by JB. Like Colonel said, the forum is full of a bunch of new englanders, but usually has good maps and discussion. Also, stumbled on this story from JB. I joined just to get updates and see maps. They seem pretty knowledgeable and less weenies. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
colonel717 Posted February 10, 2017 Share Posted February 10, 2017 CFS track favors us Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowsux Posted February 10, 2017 Share Posted February 10, 2017 4 minutes ago, colonel717 said: CFS track favors us February 2010 all over again. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowsux Posted February 10, 2017 Share Posted February 10, 2017 Look at this upcoming week. Look familiar? If this net system comes to fruition and we get some snow out it it, and if the temperatures verify, we're essentially repeating this week, complete with a weekend torch next weekend. https://www.wunderground.com/us/pa/pittsburgh Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
colonel717 Posted February 11, 2017 Share Posted February 11, 2017 My big storm week of the 20th is looking good. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
colonel717 Posted February 11, 2017 Share Posted February 11, 2017 And Para... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rd9108 Posted February 11, 2017 Share Posted February 11, 2017 3 minutes ago, colonel717 said: And Para... Lock her up Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowsux Posted February 11, 2017 Share Posted February 11, 2017 Yup, the period between Thursday and the end of the month could actually eclipse February 2010 if it all pans out. Everything seems to be a direct hit for the area right now. Amazing. With March opening on the cold side, we might now be seeing bare ground until at least the start of meteorological Spring. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowsux Posted February 11, 2017 Share Posted February 11, 2017 Goodbye snow this weekend... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jwilson Posted February 11, 2017 Share Posted February 11, 2017 Creek behind my house is going to be running high and fast after this snow melt. I'm not worried about details re: storms in the long-range, but the potential is about as good as it can possibly get. Now we just need everything to fall in line. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowsux Posted February 11, 2017 Share Posted February 11, 2017 2 minutes ago, jwilson said: Creek behind my house is going to be running high and fast after this snow melt. I'm not worried about details re: storms in the long-range, but the potential is about as good as it can possibly get. Now we just need everything to fall in line. Ha! Be careful what you wish for. If it does truly wind up being another "Snowmageddon" period like they typical hypesters are saying (JB and Margusity verbatim), do you really think we'll also be blessed with the ensuing "slow melt" we had back in 2010? Do you have any idea of the flood disaster that was averted that year by nothing more than dumb luck? 2-3 feet worth of heavy, wet snow in this region miraculously melted over a 2-3 week period with almost no rain, sunny to partly cloudy skies, and normal temperatures. If you want my honest opinion, THAT was more notable than the snow itself. If this little Snowmageddon fantasy comes true over the next couple of weeks, I guarantee it's inevitable erasure isn't gonna go nearly as smoothly as it did in 2010, so be careful what you wish for. Unless you enjoy flooding and raw sewage running through the streets, incalculable property damage, etc. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RitualOfTheTrout Posted February 11, 2017 Share Posted February 11, 2017 Still no dice for the storm next week.. We need to see something on the models soon or I think we can just toss that "favorable" period. After that its an a torch again for a few days and we see what if anything can materialize from that windows around the 22-24th. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowsux Posted February 11, 2017 Share Posted February 11, 2017 18 hours ago, MikeB_01 said: http://www.americanwx.com/forum/index.php?/topic/5459-no-retreat-no-surrender/ Really cool by JB. Like Colonel said, the forum is full of a bunch of new englanders, but usually has good maps and discussion. Also, stumbled on this story from JB. I'm a member there. Never posted, just read. You're right....good maps & discussion, but boy do they argue with each other. It's pretty funny at times. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
colonel717 Posted February 11, 2017 Share Posted February 11, 2017 3 hours ago, RitualOfTheTrout said: Still no dice for the storm next week.. We need to see something on the models soon or I think we can just toss that "favorable" period. After that its an a torch again for a few days and we see what if anything can materialize from that windows around the 22-24th. I think they are starting to come around. UKIE and German took steps in right direction for 12z. GFS and CMC took baby steps. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowsux Posted February 11, 2017 Share Posted February 11, 2017 33 minutes ago, colonel717 said: I think they are starting to come around. UKIE and German took steps in right direction for 12z. GFS and CMC took baby steps. Euro didn't look good. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MikeB_01 Posted February 12, 2017 Share Posted February 12, 2017 Low Pressure centered right over AGC. Literally, the L fits in the county Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rd9108 Posted February 12, 2017 Share Posted February 12, 2017 On to the next one. 16th is dead. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psunate1977 Posted February 12, 2017 Share Posted February 12, 2017 7 hours ago, Rd9108 said: On to the next one. 16th is dead. Will there be a next one? The end of the month we torch. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MikeB_01 Posted February 12, 2017 Share Posted February 12, 2017 Will there be a next one? The end of the month we torch. Go back and read that article that I posted from JB. Not that he is always right, but I like his methodology. Should be another window in Feb and even to begin march. Even with the models not showing it. Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
meatwad Posted February 12, 2017 Share Posted February 12, 2017 Wind Advisory URGENT - WEATHER MESSAGE National Weather Service Pittsburgh PA 1044 AM EST Sun Feb 12 2017 OHZ040-041-050-PAZ007>009-013>015-020>022-029-031-073-075-WVZ001- 002-509-122345- /O.EXB.KPBZ.WI.Y.0003.170212T2300Z-170213T1200Z/ Carroll-Columbiana-Jefferson-Mercer-Venango-Forest-Lawrence- Butler-Clarion-Beaver-Allegheny-Armstrong-Washington-Greene- Westmoreland-Fayette-Hancock-Brooke-Monongalia- Including the cities of Carrollton, Malvern, East Liverpool, Salem, Columbiana, Steubenville, Sharon, Hermitage, Grove City, Oil City, Franklin, Tionesta, New Castle, Ellwood City, Butler, Clarion, Aliquippa, Beaver Falls, Ambridge, Monaca, Pittsburgh Metro Area, Kittanning, Ford City, Washington, Canonsburg, Waynesburg, Murrysville, Greensburg, New Kensington, Uniontown, Weirton, Follansbee, Wellsburg, and Morgantown 1044 AM EST Sun Feb 12 2017 ...WIND ADVISORY IN EFFECT FROM 6 PM THIS EVENING TO 7 AM EST MONDAY... The National Weather Service in Pittsburgh has issued a Wind Advisory...which is in effect from 6 PM this evening to 7 AM EST Monday. * WIND...West 15 to 20 mph with gusts up to 45 mph. * PERIOD OF STRONGEST WIND...Tonight and early Monday. * IMPACTS...Wind may blow down limbs...trees...and power lines. Scattered power outages are expected. PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS... This Wind Advisory means that wind gusts near 45 mph are expected. Please report down trees or branches by calling 412-262-1988, posting to the NWS Pittsburgh Facebook page, or using Twitter @NWSPITTSBURGH && Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jwilson Posted February 12, 2017 Share Posted February 12, 2017 I think the rule to live by this winter is "follow the NAM." While ordinarily that doesn't seem like a great idea, models in the long-range have been even worse than normal. Don't bother looking beyond that 60 to 84-hour timeframe. Not a stretch to say it has been a total waste. Also it makes total sense in this winter to throw away a decent setup. Not to say that will happen in the end, but it would fit. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MikeB_01 Posted February 12, 2017 Share Posted February 12, 2017 Not really sure what I am entirely doing with reanalysis. I figured i would try it out and here was my best shot. If anyone has any suggestions, I'd appreciate them. I figured I would take a look at the ENSO readings since 1950 and find which years were coming out of a weak La Nina and moving towards a neutral phase. I found the years 1965, 1972, 1985, and 1996. I ran a reanalysis on february and march 500 mb geopotential heights. This is the graphic is spat back. Decent evidence to not quite give up on the season just yet. According to this, looks like we still have a window of opportunity to score on some decent snows. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rd9108 Posted February 12, 2017 Share Posted February 12, 2017 1 hour ago, MikeB_01 said: Not really sure what I am entirely doing with reanalysis. I figured i would try it out and here was my best shot. If anyone has any suggestions, I'd appreciate them. I figured I would take a look at the ENSO readings since 1950 and find which years were coming out of a weak La Nina and moving towards a neutral phase. I found the years 1965, 1972, 1985, and 1996. I ran a reanalysis on february and march 500 mb geopotential heights. This is the graphic is spat back. Decent evidence to not quite give up on the season just yet. According to this, looks like we still have a window of opportunity to score on some decent snows. March is usually the month we get a quick hitter almost similar to the one we just had. I still wouldn't give up on this week's but gotta see some big changes tonight. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MikeB_01 Posted February 12, 2017 Share Posted February 12, 2017 1 hour ago, Rd9108 said: March is usually the month we get a quick hitter almost similar to the one we just had. I still wouldn't give up on this week's but gotta see some big changes tonight. I'm not ready to give up on this week either. A very small change in the positions of energy can make a big difference. If the energy in Texas can get out ahead of the energy just north of us, i bet they phase and go up closer to the coast instead of OTS. One of the analogs of this set up shows a nice snowfall for us. Not saying its likely, but still trying to keep some hope on this week. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
colonel717 Posted February 12, 2017 Share Posted February 12, 2017 Mike, I like your positve outlook. I do feel we have an 8-12 inch storm in store for us this winter. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MikeB_01 Posted February 13, 2017 Share Posted February 13, 2017 Kind of unbelievable,but this just came through... BULLETIN - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED Severe Thunderstorm Warning National Weather Service Pittsburgh PA 702 PM EST SUN FEB 12 2017 The National Weather Service in Pittsburgh has issued a * Severe Thunderstorm Warning for... Northern Jefferson County in east central Ohio... Southeastern Columbiana County in east central Ohio... Northwestern Washington County in southwestern Pennsylvania... Beaver County in western Pennsylvania... Southern Lawrence County in western Pennsylvania... Indiana County in west central Pennsylvania... Southern Butler County in west central Pennsylvania... Allegheny County in southwestern Pennsylvania... Northwestern Westmoreland County in southwestern Pennsylvania... Armstrong County in west central Pennsylvania... Hancock County in northern West Virginia... * Until 800 PM EST. * At 701 PM EST, severe thunderstorms were located along a line extending from near Meridian to near Toronto, moving east at 50 mph. HAZARD...60 mph wind gusts. SOURCE...Radar. IMPACT...Expect damage to trees and power lines, resulting in some power outages. * Locations impacted include... Pittsburgh... Penn Hills... Mount Lebanon... Bethel Park... Ross Township... McCandless Township... Monroeville... Cranberry... Moon Township... Greensburg... Weirton... McKeesport... This includes the following highways... Pennsylvania Turnpike between mile markers 15 and 69. Interstate 79 in Pennsylvania between mile markers 25 and 66. Parkway North between mile markers 1 and 13. PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS... Move to an interior room on the lowest floor of a building. Please report severe weather by calling 412-262- 1988, posting to the NWS Pittsburgh Facebook page, or using Twitter @NWSPITTSBURGH. && LAT...LON 4028 7962 4046 8092 4093 8008 4088 7881 4077 7881 TIME...MOT...LOC 0001Z 275DEG 45KT 4088 7999 4046 8067 HAIL...<.75IN WIND...60MPH Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CranberryWX Posted February 13, 2017 Share Posted February 13, 2017 WTH....severe thunderstorm warning in Feb at 41 degrees. I kept hearing rumbling and I told the wife that cant be thunder. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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