colonel717 Posted February 9, 2017 Share Posted February 9, 2017 Here is EURO Day 6 moisture. Looks good Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
KPITSnow Posted February 9, 2017 Share Posted February 9, 2017 9 minutes ago, colonel717 said: Here is EURO Day 6 moisture. Looks good That's a pretty classic look for a big storm for us. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MikeB_01 Posted February 9, 2017 Share Posted February 9, 2017 Big squall right now west of the city. Incredible rates right now. Reflective rates on radar scope are between 30 and 35dBZ. White out Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
colonel717 Posted February 9, 2017 Share Posted February 9, 2017 32 minutes ago, MikeB_01 said: Big squall right now west of the city. Incredible rates right now. Reflective rates on radar scope are between 30 and 35dBZ. White out Yea, my wife said that came thru Bethel. Still coming down but not as hard, really windy Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Mailman Posted February 9, 2017 Share Posted February 9, 2017 Just measured 5.25". Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
colonel717 Posted February 9, 2017 Share Posted February 9, 2017 Looks to be a heavy squall line heading south, west of Youngstown heading towards western AGC. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
colonel717 Posted February 9, 2017 Share Posted February 9, 2017 4 hours ago, Rd9108 said: Can I be negative about the next storm yet? Looks lIke a big one......for the I95. Yes you can be negative after seeing this... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MikeB_01 Posted February 9, 2017 Share Posted February 9, 2017 I refuse to be negative just yet. I see to much hope in this pattern Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rd9108 Posted February 9, 2017 Share Posted February 9, 2017 37 minutes ago, MikeB_01 said: I refuse to be negative just yet. I see to much hope in this pattern I will stay negative so whenever we get our HECS you all can troll me.I agree the pattern is ripe but I unfortunately think the big daddy favors the coast. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jwilson Posted February 9, 2017 Share Posted February 9, 2017 Based on the above graphic I'd say the ridge is too far East, resulting in an Easterly trough which would send any storm out to sea. Potential impacts to the coast only. We really need a true Miller A event that slides through Miss/Alabama and rides up either just on the coast or slightly to the interior. A big overrunning event would be a nice score with that blocking. As for today, with all the squalls I managed to get another 1.25" down here. Can't really count that as part of the storm, though. Combined it becomes the biggest 24 hour snow, but that biggest event is still elusive. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rd9108 Posted February 9, 2017 Share Posted February 9, 2017 At the light by McKees rock bridge and I'm in a pretty heavy squall. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
colonel717 Posted February 9, 2017 Share Posted February 9, 2017 EXTENDED FORECAST DISCUSSIONNWS WEATHER PREDICTION CENTER COLLEGE PARK MD1057 AM EST THU FEB 09 2017VALID 12Z SUN FEB 12 2017 - 12Z THU FEB 16 2017PATTERN OVERVIEW/GUIDANCE EVALUATION/PREFERENCES~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~THE MODELS AND ENSEMBLES SHOW A PERSISTENT CENTRAL TO EASTERN PACIFIC TROUGH....WITH DOWNSTREAM HIGH AMPLITUDE RIDGING ACROSS THE NORTHWEST US AND WESTERN CANADA. THIS FAVORS A TROUGH OVERTHE GREAT LAKES AND NORTHEAST. THE MODELS SHOW 2 DISTINCT WAVESCROSSING THE REGION...WITH TRIPLE POINTLOW FORMATION OCCURRING NEAR THE UPPER MID ATLANTIC/SOUTHERN NEWENGLAND COAST SUNDAY NIGHT AND RAPIDLY INTENSIFYING AS THE CYCLONEMOVES NORTHEAST ON MONDAY...PROVIDING POTENTIAL FOR A MAJORPRECIPITATION AND WIND/WAVE EVENT.ANOTHER NORTHERN STREAM WAVE CROSSES FROM THE DAKOTAS MON TO THE UPPER MS VALLEY AND UPPER GREAT LAKES TUE AND LOWER GREAT LAKES/NEW YORK WED. TRIPLE POINT LOW REDEVELOPMENT SUGGESTS THE POSSIBILITY OF YET ANOTHER COASTAL LOW DEVELOPMENT EITHER IN THE NORTHERN MID ATLANTIC TO COASTAL SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND...WITH THE LOW DEEPENING AS IT MOVES NORTHEAST.THE DEBATE ON THIS SYSTEM IS THE EXTENT TO WHICH PHASING OCCURS WITH A SOUTHERN STREAM MID-UPPER TROUGH...WHICH STARTS AS A CLOSED UPPER LOW MOVING OUT OF THE SOUTHWEST. THE 00Z ECMWF OPERATIONAL/ECMWF ENSEMBLE MEAN MOVE THE LOW ACROSS THE SOUTHERN PLAINS AND LOWER MS VALLEY FASTER THAN THE GFS AND CANADIAN GLOBAL AND THEIR RESPECTIVE ENSEMBLES. THERE ARE SIGNIFICANT DIFFERENCES IN TIMING/PHASING FROM RUN TO RUN IN THE GFS AND ALSO BETWEEN THE GFS AND ITS ENSEMBLE MEANS AND ALSO BETWEEN THE CANADIAN AND ITS ENSEMBLE MEAN.THE FLOW PATTERN FAVORS A SLOWER MOTION TO THIS SYSTEM AS NO KICKER SHORTWAVES APPEAR TO BE PRESENT TO EJECT THE LOW QUICKLY AWAY FROM THE SOUTHWEST. SO EVEN THOUGH THE 00Z AND 06Z GFS WERE ON THE SLOWER PORTION OF THE GUIDANCE DISTRIBUTION...THEY WERE INCLUDED IN THE BLEND TO ACCOUNT FOR THE POSSIBILITY OF THE SLOWER MOTION BEING MORE CORRECT. THE 06Z GEFS MEAN AND 00Z ECMWFENSEMBLE MEAN/00Z NAEFS MEAN WERE IN BETTER THAN AVERAGEAGREEMENT AND INCLUDED AS WELL.THE DAYS 3-7 FORECASTS WERE BASED ON MAINLY AN 00Z GFS/00ZECMWF/06Z GEFS MEAN/00Z ECMWF ENSEMBLE MEAN BLEND WITH MOREWEIGHTING TO THE MEANS NEXT THU 16 FEB.WITH THE BLOCKING HIGH AMPLITUDE RIDGE..SYSTEMS OVER THE EASTERN PACIFIC WILL BE SLOW TO APPROACH THE WEST COAST. A FEW OF THE RUNS HAVE A STORM APPROACHING CLOSE TO THE WEST COAST DURING NEXT THU 16 FEB...WITH THE SLOWER GFS INCLUDED IN THE BLEND AS A COUNTER TO FASTER ECMWF/CANADIAN FRONTAL PROGRESSION. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
meatwad Posted February 9, 2017 Share Posted February 9, 2017 Special Weather Statement Special Weather Statement National Weather Service Pittsburgh PA 347 PM EST THU FEB 9 2017 PAZ013-014-020-021-073-092145- Butler-Lawrence-Westmoreland-Beaver-Allegheny- 347 PM EST THU FEB 9 2017 ...INTENSE SNOW SQUALLS WILL AFFECT BEAVER...SOUTH CENTRAL LAWRENCE...SOUTHWESTERN BUTLER...ALLEGHENY AND WESTERN WESTMORELAND COUNTIES... At 346 PM EST, intense snow squalls were located over Beaver County, moving southeast at 30 mph. Locations impacted include... Pittsburgh... Penn Hills... Mount Lebanon... Bethel Park... Ross Township... McCandless Township... Monroeville... Cranberry... Moon Township... McKeesport... Franklin Park... Jeannette... This includes the following highways... Interstate 70 in Pennsylvania mile marker 49 and near mile marker 51. Pennsylvania Turnpike between mile markers 6 and 72. Interstate 79 in Pennsylvania between mile markers 29 and 59. Parkway North between mile markers 1 and 13. Visibility will drop quickly to less than a half mile in these intense squalls. Use caution if you must travel through these squalls. Rapid changes in visibility and road conditions are likely to lead to accidents. Consider delaying travel until these squalls pass. LAT...LON 4016 7973 4067 8052 4070 8052 4096 8039 4046 7945 TIME...MOT...LOC 2046Z 305DEG 28KT 4057 8016 $$ CL Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RitualOfTheTrout Posted February 9, 2017 Share Posted February 9, 2017 Think that squall is moving over me now, near whiteout for about 45 seconds now back to just light moderate snow, but the winds are really ripping. This is like the perfect day after a snow storm for me, re-enforcing coatings of snow all day and dropping temperatures. I'll take any snow storm, but when post storm we warm up and it starts melting hours after the last flake has fallen are really not as satisfying to me. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RitualOfTheTrout Posted February 9, 2017 Share Posted February 9, 2017 Key to the next window is the phase, if the northern stream can dig down behind the southern storm its going to be a monster... Question is can it happen and if so who gets it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
meatwad Posted February 9, 2017 Share Posted February 9, 2017 Special Weather Statement Special Weather Statement National Weather Service Pittsburgh PA 505 PM EST THU FEB 9 2017 PAZ013-014-020-021-073-074-092300- Butler-Lawrence-Westmoreland Ridges-Westmoreland-Beaver-Allegheny- 505 PM EST THU FEB 9 2017 ...INTENSE SNOW SQUALLS WILL AFFECT NORTHEASTERN BEAVER... SOUTHEASTERN LAWRENCE...SOUTHWESTERN BUTLER...NORTHEASTERN ALLEGHENY AND WESTMORELAND COUNTIES... At 504 PM EST, intense snow squalls were moving southeast at 30 mph. Locations impacted include... Pittsburgh... Penn Hills... Ross Township... McCandless Township... Monroeville... Cranberry... Greensburg... Franklin Park... Jeannette... Beaver Falls... Latrobe... Shaler Township... This includes the following highways... Pennsylvania Turnpike between mile markers 14 and 69, and between mile markers 82 and 99. Interstate 79 in Pennsylvania between mile markers 44 and 64. Visibility will drop quickly to less than one half mile in these squalls. Use caution if you must travel through these squalls. Rapid changes in visibility and road conditions are likely to lead to accidents. Consider delaying travel until these squalls pass. LAT...LON 4020 7913 4018 7913 4018 7914 4016 7914 4016 7916 4011 7918 4012 7921 4009 7926 4004 7929 4004 7932 4077 8035 4093 8022 4050 7946 4048 7945 4049 7943 4047 7942 4047 7940 4045 7939 4046 7937 4028 7906 TIME...MOT...LOC 2204Z 307DEG 27KT 4071 7994 $$ CL Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
colonel717 Posted February 9, 2017 Share Posted February 9, 2017 Hurricane force winds for NE Monday. Can you image the damage with a couple feet of snow on top of that. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
colonel717 Posted February 9, 2017 Share Posted February 9, 2017 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
colonel717 Posted February 10, 2017 Share Posted February 10, 2017 Euro Weeklies. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MikeB_01 Posted February 10, 2017 Share Posted February 10, 2017 27 minutes ago, colonel717 said: Euro Weeklies. Its soooooooo far way but i love the pattern for the first week of March. Ive been hearing some chatter from some mets who are talking about a very warm end to the month of february. I dont see it with these weeklies or the teleconnections. Not sure what they are looking at. Colonel, these maps make me miss my wxbell subscription. Thanks for sharing. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
colonel717 Posted February 10, 2017 Share Posted February 10, 2017 45 minutes ago, MikeB_01 said: Its soooooooo far way but i love the pattern for the first week of March. Ive been hearing some chatter from some mets who are talking about a very warm end to the month of february. I dont see it with these weeklies or the teleconnections. Not sure what they are looking at. Colonel, these maps make me miss my wxbell subscription. Thanks for sharing. Mike, no problem. I found them on another board. I tried loading the following weeks but site wouldn't allow me. They look good well into March. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rd9108 Posted February 10, 2017 Share Posted February 10, 2017 4 minutes ago, colonel717 said: Mike, no problem. I found them on another board. I tried loading the following weeks but site wouldn't allow me. They look good well into March. I just miss having the Euro. I heard it was close to phasing last night. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
colonel717 Posted February 10, 2017 Share Posted February 10, 2017 2 hours ago, Rd9108 said: I just miss having the Euro. I heard it was close to phasing last night. Yep. Its on its own for the late week storm at this point. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rd9108 Posted February 10, 2017 Share Posted February 10, 2017 31 minutes ago, colonel717 said: Yep. Its on its own for the late week storm at this point. Everything looks good though. The early week low acts like a 50/50 low. We also have a positive PNA and a negative NAO. It's the best look we have had this year in my opinion for something huge. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RitualOfTheTrout Posted February 10, 2017 Share Posted February 10, 2017 3 hours ago, Rd9108 said: I just miss having the Euro. I heard it was close to phasing last night. I guess if we want one model on its own vs the world its the Euro. Will be interesting to see if it keeps advertising that option, GFS OP doesn't seem interesting in phasing. The pattern is ripe for something so it would be a shame to waste it, especially in a winter were we really haven't even had many good looks. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
colonel717 Posted February 10, 2017 Share Posted February 10, 2017 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
colonel717 Posted February 10, 2017 Share Posted February 10, 2017 Phasing Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
colonel717 Posted February 10, 2017 Share Posted February 10, 2017 Doesn't look that impressive for us Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CranberryWX Posted February 10, 2017 Share Posted February 10, 2017 Got back from camp this afternoon. We got 6" of super dry powder up there...never saw the snow fall though. Went to bed early, it was still 36 no snow, woke up to a winter wonderland and 19F. The creeks were bankfull from the rain and snow melt the day before. It looks like we got 2 to 3" in Cranberry. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rd9108 Posted February 10, 2017 Share Posted February 10, 2017 1 hour ago, colonel717 said: Doesn't look that impressive for us This one smells like a December 2010 redux. We need this to close and phase a lot sooner. Still 7 days out so a lot can change. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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