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Pittsburgh PA Winter 2016-2017


north pgh

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37 minutes ago, MikeB_01 said:

I refuse to be negative just yet. I see to much hope in this pattern

 

gfs_z500aNorm_namer_25.png

I will stay negative so whenever we get our HECS you all can troll me.I agree the pattern is ripe but I unfortunately think the big daddy favors the coast. 

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Based on the above graphic I'd say the ridge is too far East, resulting in an Easterly trough which would send any storm out to sea.  Potential impacts to the coast only.  We really need a true Miller A event that slides through Miss/Alabama and rides up either just on the coast or slightly to the interior.  A big overrunning event would be a nice score with that blocking.

As for today, with all the squalls I managed to get another 1.25" down here.  Can't really count that as part of the storm, though.  Combined it becomes the biggest 24 hour snow, but that biggest event is still elusive.

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EXTENDED FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS WEATHER PREDICTION CENTER COLLEGE PARK MD
1057 AM EST THU FEB 09 2017

VALID 12Z SUN FEB 12 2017 - 12Z THU FEB 16 2017

PATTERN OVERVIEW/GUIDANCE EVALUATION/PREFERENCES
~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~

THE MODELS AND ENSEMBLES SHOW A PERSISTENT CENTRAL TO EASTERN
PACIFIC TROUGH....WITH DOWNSTREAM HIGH AMPLITUDE RIDGING ACROSS
THE NORTHWEST US AND WESTERN CANADA
. THIS FAVORS A TROUGH OVER
THE GREAT LAKES AND NORTHEAST. THE MODELS SHOW 2 DISTINCT WAVES
CROSSING THE REGION...WITH TRIPLE POINT
LOW FORMATION OCCURRING NEAR THE UPPER MID ATLANTIC/SOUTHERN NEW
ENGLAND COAST SUNDAY NIGHT AND RAPIDLY INTENSIFYING AS THE CYCLONE
MOVES NORTHEAST ON MONDAY...PROVIDING POTENTIAL FOR A MAJOR
PRECIPITATION AND WIND/WAVE EVENT.

ANOTHER NORTHERN STREAM WAVE CROSSES FROM THE DAKOTAS MON TO THE
UPPER MS VALLEY AND UPPER GREAT LAKES TUE
AND LOWER GREAT LAKES/NEW YORK WED. TRIPLE POINT LOW
REDEVELOPMENT SUGGESTS THE POSSIBILITY OF YET ANOTHER COASTAL LOW
DEVELOPMENT EITHER IN THE NORTHERN MID ATLANTIC TO COASTAL
SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND...WITH THE LOW DEEPENING AS IT MOVES
NORTHEAST.


THE DEBATE ON THIS SYSTEM IS THE EXTENT TO WHICH PHASING OCCURS
WITH A SOUTHERN STREAM MID-UPPER TROUGH...WHICH STARTS AS A CLOSED
UPPER LOW MOVING OUT OF THE SOUTHWEST. THE 00Z ECMWF
OPERATIONAL/ECMWF ENSEMBLE MEAN MOVE THE LOW ACROSS THE SOUTHERN
PLAINS AND LOWER MS VALLEY FASTER THAN THE GFS AND CANADIAN GLOBAL
AND THEIR RESPECTIVE ENSEMBLES. THERE ARE SIGNIFICANT DIFFERENCES
IN TIMING/PHASING FROM RUN TO RUN IN THE GFS AND ALSO BETWEEN THE
GFS AND ITS ENSEMBLE MEANS AND ALSO BETWEEN THE CANADIAN AND ITS
ENSEMBLE MEAN.


THE FLOW PATTERN FAVORS A SLOWER MOTION TO THIS SYSTEM AS NO
KICKER SHORTWAVES APPEAR TO BE PRESENT TO EJECT THE LOW QUICKLY
AWAY FROM THE SOUTHWEST. 
SO EVEN THOUGH THE 00Z AND 06Z GFS WERE
ON THE SLOWER PORTION OF THE GUIDANCE DISTRIBUTION...THEY WERE
INCLUDED IN THE BLEND TO ACCOUNT FOR THE POSSIBILITY OF THE SLOWER
MOTION BEING MORE CORRECT. 
THE 06Z GEFS MEAN AND 00Z ECMWF
ENSEMBLE MEAN/00Z NAEFS MEAN WERE IN BETTER THAN AVERAGE
AGREEMENT AND INCLUDED AS WELL.

THE DAYS 3-7 FORECASTS WERE BASED ON MAINLY AN 00Z GFS/00Z
ECMWF/06Z GEFS MEAN/00Z ECMWF ENSEMBLE MEAN BLEND WITH MORE
WEIGHTING TO THE MEANS NEXT THU 16 FEB.

WITH THE BLOCKING HIGH AMPLITUDE RIDGE..SYSTEMS OVER THE EASTERN
PACIFIC WILL BE SLOW TO APPROACH THE WEST COAST. A FEW OF THE
RUNS HAVE A STORM APPROACHING CLOSE TO THE WEST COAST DURING NEXT
THU 16 FEB...WITH THE SLOWER GFS INCLUDED IN THE BLEND AS A
COUNTER TO FASTER ECMWF/CANADIAN FRONTAL PROGRESSION
. 

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Special Weather Statement

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Pittsburgh PA
347 PM EST THU FEB 9 2017

PAZ013-014-020-021-073-092145-
Butler-Lawrence-Westmoreland-Beaver-Allegheny-
347 PM EST THU FEB 9 2017

...INTENSE SNOW SQUALLS WILL AFFECT BEAVER...SOUTH CENTRAL
LAWRENCE...SOUTHWESTERN BUTLER...ALLEGHENY AND WESTERN WESTMORELAND
COUNTIES...

At 346 PM EST, intense snow squalls were located over Beaver County,
moving southeast at 30 mph.

Locations impacted include...
Pittsburgh...                     Penn Hills...
Mount Lebanon...                  Bethel Park...
Ross Township...                  McCandless Township...
Monroeville...                    Cranberry...
Moon Township...                  McKeesport...
Franklin Park...                  Jeannette...

This includes the following highways...
  Interstate 70 in Pennsylvania mile marker 49 and near mile marker
  51.

  Pennsylvania Turnpike between mile markers 6 and 72.

  Interstate 79 in Pennsylvania between mile markers 29 and 59.

  Parkway North between mile markers 1 and 13.

Visibility will drop quickly to less than a half mile in these
intense squalls.

Use caution if you must travel through these squalls. Rapid changes
in visibility and road conditions are likely to lead to accidents.
Consider delaying travel until these squalls pass.

LAT...LON 4016 7973 4067 8052 4070 8052 4096 8039
      4046 7945
TIME...MOT...LOC 2046Z 305DEG 28KT 4057 8016

$$

CL

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Think that squall is moving over me now, near whiteout for about 45 seconds now back to just light moderate snow, but the winds are really ripping. This is like the perfect day after a snow storm for me, re-enforcing coatings of snow all day and dropping temperatures. I'll take any snow storm, but when post storm we warm up and it starts melting hours after the last flake has fallen are really not as satisfying to me.

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Special Weather Statement

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Pittsburgh PA
505 PM EST THU FEB 9 2017

PAZ013-014-020-021-073-074-092300-
Butler-Lawrence-Westmoreland Ridges-Westmoreland-Beaver-Allegheny-
505 PM EST THU FEB 9 2017

...INTENSE SNOW SQUALLS WILL AFFECT NORTHEASTERN BEAVER...
SOUTHEASTERN LAWRENCE...SOUTHWESTERN BUTLER...NORTHEASTERN ALLEGHENY
AND WESTMORELAND COUNTIES...

At 504 PM EST, intense snow squalls were moving southeast at 30 mph.

Locations impacted include...
Pittsburgh...                     Penn Hills...
Ross Township...                  McCandless Township...
Monroeville...                    Cranberry...
Greensburg...                     Franklin Park...
Jeannette...                      Beaver Falls...
Latrobe...                        Shaler Township...

This includes the following highways...
  Pennsylvania Turnpike between mile markers 14 and 69, and between
  mile markers 82 and 99.

  Interstate 79 in Pennsylvania between mile markers 44 and 64.

Visibility will drop quickly to less than one half mile in these
squalls.

Use caution if you must travel through these squalls. Rapid changes
in visibility and road conditions are likely to lead to accidents.
Consider delaying travel until these squalls pass.

LAT...LON 4020 7913 4018 7913 4018 7914 4016 7914
      4016 7916 4011 7918 4012 7921 4009 7926
      4004 7929 4004 7932 4077 8035 4093 8022
      4050 7946 4048 7945 4049 7943 4047 7942
      4047 7940 4045 7939 4046 7937 4028 7906
TIME...MOT...LOC 2204Z 307DEG 27KT 4071 7994

$$

CL



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27 minutes ago, colonel717 said:

Euro Weeklies.

Weeklies 1.PNG

Its soooooooo far way but i love the pattern for the first week of March.

 

Ive been hearing some chatter from some mets who are talking about a very warm end to the month of february. I dont see it with these weeklies or the teleconnections. Not sure what they are looking at.

 

Colonel, these maps make me miss my wxbell subscription. Thanks for sharing.

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45 minutes ago, MikeB_01 said:

Its soooooooo far way but i love the pattern for the first week of March.

 

Ive been hearing some chatter from some mets who are talking about a very warm end to the month of february. I dont see it with these weeklies or the teleconnections. Not sure what they are looking at.

 

Colonel, these maps make me miss my wxbell subscription. Thanks for sharing.

Mike, no problem.  I found them on another board.  I tried loading the following weeks but site wouldn't allow me.  They look good well into March.

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4 minutes ago, colonel717 said:

 

Mike, no problem.  I found them on another board.  I tried loading the following weeks but site wouldn't allow me.  They look good well into March.

I just miss having the Euro. I heard it was close to phasing last night. 

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31 minutes ago, colonel717 said:

Yep.  Its on its own for the late week storm at this point.  

Everything looks good though. The early week low acts like a 50/50 low. We also have a positive PNA and a negative NAO. It's the best look we have had this year in my opinion for something huge. 

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3 hours ago, Rd9108 said:

I just miss having the Euro. I heard it was close to phasing last night. 

 I guess if we want one model on its own vs the world its the Euro. Will be interesting to see if it keeps advertising that option, GFS OP doesn't seem interesting in phasing.

gfs_z500_vort_us_22.png

 

The pattern is ripe for something so it would be a shame to waste it, especially in a winter were we really haven't even had many good looks.

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Got back from camp this afternoon.  We got 6" of super dry powder up there...never saw the snow fall though.  Went to bed early, it was still 36 no snow, woke up to a winter wonderland and 19F.  The creeks were bankfull from the rain and snow melt the day before.

 It looks like we got 2 to 3" in Cranberry.

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