KPITSnow Posted December 8, 2016 Share Posted December 8, 2016 The GFS is pretty ugly. Low goes up into Michigan. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
north pgh Posted December 8, 2016 Author Share Posted December 8, 2016 Light snowflakes are starting to fall. Nice to see some snow in the air and hopefully we can get some accumulating snow soon. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RitualOfTheTrout Posted December 8, 2016 Share Posted December 8, 2016 31 minutes ago, KPITSnow said: The GFS is pretty ugly. Low goes up into Michigan. If you want wall to wall snow from any event, or even event to event this pattern probably isn't going to do it for you very often. Front end thumps to mix / ice / rain will probably be more likely. Also, more so than in other patterns any medium - long lead (4 days plus) threat is likely to change dramatically one run to the next in terms of sensible weather. I wouldn't focus much on anything past the Sunday event to see how it plays out before getting worried about Monday and down the line. Only thing that seems certain is there will be storms and re-enforcing shots of cold air over the next 14 days, p-type TBD. I'd still take this after last December. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
colonel717 Posted December 8, 2016 Share Posted December 8, 2016 1 hour ago, Ryd10 said: CMC looks like 6-8 also. Still a lot of time but the verdict looks like we see some type of accumulating snow. Yep, plenty of opportunities for accumulation over the next 10 days and beyond. Looks to be several front end thumps with change over type of events. Hopefully we end of with more snow than rain but we know how well we do with WAA storms... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rd9108 Posted December 8, 2016 Share Posted December 8, 2016 EURO rains on our parade. too much warm air cuts snow accumulation a lot. I have a feel it's gonna be another one of those storms where the changeover happens fast and we stare at the rain snow line hoping it dives back south. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jwilson Posted December 8, 2016 Share Posted December 8, 2016 Think I'm going to ride the GFS this year until it gives me reason not to. If I'm remembering correctly, the only time it didn't lead the way last season was the big storm where it struggled - as most of the models did - with placement of the low and precip shield. The NAM ended up catching on the soonest, though it was overdone on the total amounts. Anything over an inch this time of year seems like a win and an exception to the rule anymore. Of course that's mostly my local climo speaking. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
colonel717 Posted December 8, 2016 Share Posted December 8, 2016 Looking at the GFS until Christmas Eve, we have the potential for 7 storms. Hopefully we can pull out a big one or a few decent ones and over performers like the one that hit Chicago area last week. 1. Sun 12/11 2. Mon 12/12 3. Wed 12/14 4. Sat/Sun 12/17-18 5. Mon/Tue 12/19-20 6. Fri 12/23 7. Sat 12/24 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
north pgh Posted December 8, 2016 Author Share Posted December 8, 2016 Getting a nice little dusting here in the North Hills Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
olafminesaw Posted December 8, 2016 Share Posted December 8, 2016 2 hours ago, Ryd10 said: EURO rains on our parade. too much warm air cuts snow accumulation a lot. I have a feel it's gonna be another one of those storms where the changeover happens fast and we stare at the rain snow line hoping it dives back south. It's better than last run, and the vast majority falls before the temp rises more than a degree or two above freezing (850s are a bit colder than surface). Of course you are right that we are flirting with a pretty meh event, especially given the GFS. Although I've lived in Northern Virginia most of my life, so my standards aren't quite so high as far as avoiding sloppy events. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Mailman Posted December 8, 2016 Share Posted December 8, 2016 Flurries here. Woo.. hoo. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rd9108 Posted December 8, 2016 Share Posted December 8, 2016 9 minutes ago, olafminesaw said: It's better than last run, and the vast majority falls before the temp rises more than a degree or two above freezing (850s are a bit colder than surface). Of course you are right that we are flirting with a pretty meh event, especially given the GFS. Although I've lived in Northern Virginia most of my life, so my standards aren't quite so high as far as avoiding sloppy events. Just looked at the Euro ensemble mean and control and wow does it look good. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
colonel717 Posted December 8, 2016 Share Posted December 8, 2016 1 hour ago, Ryd10 said: Just looked at the Euro ensemble mean and control and wow does it look good. Hopefully its better than the GFS...and the NAM... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rd9108 Posted December 8, 2016 Share Posted December 8, 2016 7 minutes ago, colonel717 said: Hopefully its better than the GFS...and the NAM... Way better but I don't even put any stock into the 6z and 18z runs unless they catch a trend and run with it. 0z will be interesting. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Mailman Posted December 8, 2016 Share Posted December 8, 2016 GFS has a nice quick hitter for Wednesday. Looks like all snow for you boys up there in Allegheny County. A little too close for comfort down here. Still plenty of time to go, obviously. I think it is lining up with what the aforementioned Euro had at 12z that Ryd10 referenced. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rd9108 Posted December 9, 2016 Share Posted December 9, 2016 NAM is basically no snow for anyone below Clarion County yikes. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
colonel717 Posted December 9, 2016 Share Posted December 9, 2016 2 minutes ago, Ryd10 said: NAM is basically no snow for anyone below Clarion County yikes. Yea its ugly. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rd9108 Posted December 9, 2016 Share Posted December 9, 2016 The trend is real. time to punt Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
blackngoldrules Posted December 9, 2016 Share Posted December 9, 2016 1 hour ago, Ryd10 said: The trend is real. time to punt The first disappointment of many to come in a typical Pittsburgh area winter. We go through it year after year. We just have to hold out hope that we can get lucky at some point. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
olafminesaw Posted December 9, 2016 Share Posted December 9, 2016 FWIW the NAM is a bit south of last run, so perhaps the trend will reverse some with the rest of the 12z models. I think we can pull out 1-3", which wouldn't be such a bad first storm. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
colonel717 Posted December 9, 2016 Share Posted December 9, 2016 6Z GFS - Para looks great for Wed/Thur Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RitualOfTheTrout Posted December 9, 2016 Share Posted December 9, 2016 30 minutes ago, olafminesaw said: FWIW the NAM is a bit south of last run, so perhaps the trend will reverse some with the rest of the 12z models. I think we can pull out 1-3", which wouldn't be such a bad first storm. On the NAM all the cold air is basically gone by the time precip starts, 6z GFS would at least be some front end snow to rain. Our best bet is probably to hope for a good front end then dryslot after it warms up. I don't know how likely we are to see a weaker low tracking much further SE to put us back into a mostly snow situation. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
colonel717 Posted December 9, 2016 Share Posted December 9, 2016 How sweet are these GEFS..Something decent has to pan out over the next 2 weeks doesn't it... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
north pgh Posted December 9, 2016 Author Share Posted December 9, 2016 1 hour ago, olafminesaw said: FWIW the NAM is a bit south of last run, so perhaps the trend will reverse some with the rest of the 12z models. I think we can pull out 1-3", which wouldn't be such a bad first storm. The GFS looks to be similar. A general 1-3 Sunday turning over to rain overnight into Monday. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rd9108 Posted December 9, 2016 Share Posted December 9, 2016 25 minutes ago, colonel717 said: How sweet are these GEFS..Something decent has to pan out over the next 2 weeks doesn't it... Almost every single member is a big hit. hope it holds but we all know the area we live in Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
colonel717 Posted December 9, 2016 Share Posted December 9, 2016 1 minute ago, Ryd10 said: Almost every single member is a big hit. hope it holds but we all know the area we live in Did you go in for a WxBell or some other site subscription this year? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rd9108 Posted December 9, 2016 Share Posted December 9, 2016 2 minutes ago, colonel717 said: Did you go in for a WxBell or some other site subscription this year? Yeah the upcoming polar vortex made me bite and buy a wx bell subscription. I figure it will be at most 100$ total Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Mailman Posted December 9, 2016 Share Posted December 9, 2016 GFS has had a nice hit for mid-week on its last couple of runs. Hope it stays that way. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
colonel717 Posted December 9, 2016 Share Posted December 9, 2016 10 minutes ago, Ryd10 said: Yeah the upcoming polar vortex made me bite and buy a wx bell subscription. I figure it will be at most 100$ total I have thought about it but just can't pull the trigger. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
colonel717 Posted December 9, 2016 Share Posted December 9, 2016 7 minutes ago, Mailman said: GFS has had a nice hit for mid-week on its last couple of runs. Hope it stays that way. Looks like 3-5 inches or so possible Wed/Thur. This include the 1-3 from Sun. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RitualOfTheTrout Posted December 9, 2016 Share Posted December 9, 2016 Just now, colonel717 said: Looks like 3-5 inches or so possible Wed/Thur blob:http://www.tropicaltidbits.com/bf7f4a35-4b33-43e8-bf3e-5fb9fb508ff1 GFS looks like it rides a couple pieces of energy along the front of the next shot of arctic air. Hopefully that look holds. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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