RitualOfTheTrout Posted February 8, 2017 Share Posted February 8, 2017 5 minutes ago, colonel717 said: They can't even commit to giving possible totals... come on NWS storm is hours away... 4 minutes ago, MikeB_01 said: They've been low balling it for the last 24 hours. Hopefully this is a sign they think it could be more than originally thought. To be fair it wasn't really until 12z today that the GFS really jumped on the higher totals. Expect after the digest all the 12z data expansion of WWAs will go up. FB post says as much. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rd9108 Posted February 8, 2017 Share Posted February 8, 2017 Yeah honestly the major models weren't impressed as the short range models for anything more than 2 inches. I could see this being a 4-6 type with maybe 7 or 8 if it over performs. I also read from Millersville that there are squalls that come behind the storm which should be watched. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoraopolisWx Posted February 8, 2017 Share Posted February 8, 2017 1 hour ago, jwilson said: Biggest question - at least for southern zones - may be how fast this changes over from rain to snow. Obviously a quicker changeover and we can get more. I'm not sure mixing is ever an issue in Pittsburgh metro as you can see from the RUC data which shows the higher amounts basically Washington and north. In storms like this it is always better to be closer to the rain/snow line because that's always where the axis of heaviest snowfall lies. I do think this can swing either way, somewhat high bust potential, but the short-term has definitely been in our favor. Anything over 3" locally and I get a season high. Yeah, where that enhanced band sets up will be key. The short term models have been showing a meso feature the past 24 hrs. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
colonel717 Posted February 8, 2017 Share Posted February 8, 2017 2 minutes ago, Rd9108 said: Yeah honestly the major models weren't impressed as the short range models for anything more than 2 inches. I could see this being a 4-6 type with maybe 7 or 8 if it over performs. I also read from Millersville that there are squalls that come behind the storm which should be watched. Yea, those squalls are going to be very hit and miss. Hopefully they verify. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
colonel717 Posted February 8, 2017 Share Posted February 8, 2017 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dj3 Posted February 8, 2017 Share Posted February 8, 2017 So we are definitely looking at some rain briefly as the precip starts later? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
colonel717 Posted February 8, 2017 Share Posted February 8, 2017 You can see the squalls here Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rd9108 Posted February 8, 2017 Share Posted February 8, 2017 That does look very spotty. The 12z gfs fwiw is no on board for a couple snow chances in the next 2 weeks or so. That MJO maybe finally be taken into consideration with the models. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
colonel717 Posted February 8, 2017 Share Posted February 8, 2017 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Mailman Posted February 8, 2017 Share Posted February 8, 2017 Long Live the King! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dj3 Posted February 8, 2017 Share Posted February 8, 2017 Wow nice to see the afternoon cycle up the ante! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoachLB Posted February 8, 2017 Share Posted February 8, 2017 2 minutes ago, colonel717 said: What does it look like across Ohio if you don't mind. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MikeB_01 Posted February 8, 2017 Share Posted February 8, 2017 4 minutes ago, colonel717 said: My guess is NWS comes out with some totals after seeing this.. LOCK THIS IN! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
colonel717 Posted February 8, 2017 Share Posted February 8, 2017 7 minutes ago, CoachLB said: What does it look like across Ohio if you don't mind. That is as west as I have, sorry Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rd9108 Posted February 8, 2017 Share Posted February 8, 2017 Let's hit 8 inches. I said back in November that's all I wanted this winter. Let's just lock the Euro in now. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
colonel717 Posted February 8, 2017 Share Posted February 8, 2017 Here is straight 10/1 ratio totals. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
KPITSnow Posted February 8, 2017 Share Posted February 8, 2017 13 minutes ago, colonel717 said: WOW! Awesome!!!! Advisories soon I would imagine, andvthis could be a low level warning event area wide. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Mailman Posted February 8, 2017 Share Posted February 8, 2017 I think somewhere in the middle of the WxBell and EuroWX maps would be a bit more accurate. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
colonel717 Posted February 8, 2017 Share Posted February 8, 2017 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
colonel717 Posted February 8, 2017 Share Posted February 8, 2017 3 minutes ago, Mailman said: I think somewhere in the middle of the WxBell and EuroWX maps would be a bit more accurate. Yea, I think someone will get 3 inches and someone will get 8 inches. Most will be in the 4-6 range Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Mailman Posted February 8, 2017 Share Posted February 8, 2017 Unlike the last two runs of the GFS, the Euro looks a bit promising for next week. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rd9108 Posted February 8, 2017 Share Posted February 8, 2017 11 minutes ago, Mailman said: Unlike the last two runs of the GFS, the Euro looks a bit promising for next week. Any maps? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Mailman Posted February 8, 2017 Share Posted February 8, 2017 Just now, Rd9108 said: Any maps? Nah. It just isn't as suppressed as the GFS. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DanTheMan Posted February 8, 2017 Share Posted February 8, 2017 Latest HRRR with Kuchera via The Mid-Atlantc Forum Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
colonel717 Posted February 8, 2017 Share Posted February 8, 2017 Too bad this is the weenie portion of SREF's Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
colonel717 Posted February 8, 2017 Share Posted February 8, 2017 Here is the other side of SREF's Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MikeB_01 Posted February 8, 2017 Share Posted February 8, 2017 For those worried about mixing and the change over from rain to snow, good sign is that the temp at KPIT is already lower than what the short term models are spitting out. Already below 40 at the airport. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Mailman Posted February 8, 2017 Share Posted February 8, 2017 Pretty shocked that PBZ has been quiet the last few hours. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
colonel717 Posted February 8, 2017 Share Posted February 8, 2017 13 minutes ago, Rd9108 said: Any maps? Are you registered with this site? Posters always post lots of maps. Its where I get most of mine. You have to put up with the NYC/East Coast centric posts. JB and Cohen are registered there. http://www.americanwx.com/forum/index.php?/topic/5433-the-last-month-of-winter-part-ii/&page=59 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
north pgh Posted February 8, 2017 Author Share Posted February 8, 2017 2 minutes ago, Mailman said: Pretty shocked that PBZ has been quiet the last few hours. Shall someone call over there and make sure they are alright? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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