colonel717 Posted February 7, 2017 Share Posted February 7, 2017 18 minutes ago, Mailman said: I would be satisfied with a 4-6" event. I think we all would at this point. Would be our biggest of the year. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stinkbugspecialist Posted February 7, 2017 Share Posted February 7, 2017 19 minutes ago, colonel717 said: I think we all would at this point. Would be our biggest of the year. Is there any analogs in the past that mimic this type of setup and if trend more north?? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
colonel717 Posted February 7, 2017 Share Posted February 7, 2017 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
colonel717 Posted February 7, 2017 Share Posted February 7, 2017 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
colonel717 Posted February 7, 2017 Share Posted February 7, 2017 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
colonel717 Posted February 7, 2017 Share Posted February 7, 2017 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
colonel717 Posted February 7, 2017 Share Posted February 7, 2017 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
colonel717 Posted February 7, 2017 Share Posted February 7, 2017 So you are saying there is a chance... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jwilson Posted February 7, 2017 Share Posted February 7, 2017 Boston wins the SB and then gets this beast. Let's just pile the crap on by swinging and missing on a significant coastal. On a more serious note, this is a real thread-the-needle event. The flow is fairly fast, but if we can get it to dig a bit earlier it would slow the storm and intensify enough to get us all in on the "moderate" amounts (4+" or more). Of course we're also looking at pushing 60 again on the weekend, but we have an impending MJO spike in Phase 8 and a bottoming out AO that will hopefully keep some cold in the area beyond that timeframe. All that means is the next week or two after the weird warm flux will be our best opportunity and pattern of the year. Even if this one doesn't pan out we might get another shot. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
colonel717 Posted February 7, 2017 Share Posted February 7, 2017 2-4 is safe bet for this storm Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
blackngoldrules Posted February 7, 2017 Share Posted February 7, 2017 1 hour ago, jwilson said: Boston wins the SB and then gets this beast. Didn't they get hit with a beast a couple of years ago, right after their last SB win, and we were all saying the same thing how unbelievably lucky they are? Feels like dejavu to me. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rd9108 Posted February 7, 2017 Share Posted February 7, 2017 18 minutes ago, blackngoldrules said: Didn't they get hit with a beast a couple of years ago, right after their last SB win, and we were all saying the same thing how unbelievably lucky they are? Feels like dejavu to me. It was probably Nemo. Let's be honest if you want big snow pittsburgh is not the place to be. Maybe since the MJO is going into strong phase 8 we score but we are running out of time. Btw NAM has been trending SE every run. Hopefully that reverses in the 0z suites. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
colonel717 Posted February 7, 2017 Share Posted February 7, 2017 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
colonel717 Posted February 7, 2017 Share Posted February 7, 2017 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stinkbugspecialist Posted February 7, 2017 Share Posted February 7, 2017 Hey noaa is more optimistic. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RitualOfTheTrout Posted February 7, 2017 Share Posted February 7, 2017 1 hour ago, Rd9108 said: It was probably Nemo. Let's be honest if you want big snow pittsburgh is not the place to be. Maybe since the MJO is going into strong phase 8 we score but we are running out of time. Btw NAM has been trending SE every run. Hopefully that reverses in the 0z suites. NAM has been the wettest and furthest NW though, so no surprise to see it trending towards other models. GFS and Euro are both on board for probably 2-3 so that seems the realistic expectation as of now. As we get closer the meso models will be good at picking up on localized precip maxes but probably aren't great for track of the storm. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Snowlover33 Posted February 7, 2017 Share Posted February 7, 2017 Hey all I hate to be that guy but as of right now whats it looking like for the Morgantown area? Im planning on traveling that day but If the roads start crapping out Ill nix it, are we in line with the general 2-4 thinking or more/less by us? Greatly Appreciated. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RitualOfTheTrout Posted February 8, 2017 Share Posted February 8, 2017 2 hours ago, Snowlover33 said: Hey all I hate to be that guy but as of right now whats it looking like for the Morgantown area? Im planning on traveling that day but If the roads start crapping out Ill nix it, are we in line with the general 2-4 thinking or more/less by us? Greatly Appreciated. Yeah I'd say 2-4 looks good, but I'd keep tabs on it to see what happens with the 00z runs before getting overly confident in that call. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RitualOfTheTrout Posted February 8, 2017 Share Posted February 8, 2017 I know we have something in the near term to track, but I'd keep an eye on this period as well: Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MikeB_01 Posted February 8, 2017 Share Posted February 8, 2017 I know we have something in the near term to track, but I'd keep an eye on this period as well:Love that blocking Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rd9108 Posted February 8, 2017 Share Posted February 8, 2017 29 minutes ago, RitualOfTheTrout said: I know we have something in the near term to track, but I'd keep an eye on this period as well: I have been looking at this time frame for awhile now. MJO looks like it is going into a strong phase 8. DT and especially JB has been on this period. Could be our best shot at a huge east coast storm. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
colonel717 Posted February 8, 2017 Share Posted February 8, 2017 19 minutes ago, Rd9108 said: I have been looking at this time frame for awhile now. MJO looks like it is going into a strong phase 8. DT and especially JB has been on this period. Could be our best shot at a huge east coast storm. Yea the next 2 weeks are loaded with potential. The week of the 20th has been on my radar. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MikeB_01 Posted February 8, 2017 Share Posted February 8, 2017 5 minutes ago, colonel717 said: Yea the next 2 weeks are loaded with potential. The week of the 20th has been on my radar. Here is that MJO. Looks like the strongest 8 comes in the middle of next week Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MikeB_01 Posted February 8, 2017 Share Posted February 8, 2017 4 minutes ago, MikeB_01 said: Here is that MJO. Looks like the strongest 8 comes in the middle of next week Also good signs for next week... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rd9108 Posted February 8, 2017 Share Posted February 8, 2017 5 minutes ago, MikeB_01 said: Also good signs for next week... That's the thing. Get the pattern right and then worry about a storm. A big storm signal may not shown up until 5 days out. Although there is a coastal on the 18z gfs. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MikeB_01 Posted February 8, 2017 Share Posted February 8, 2017 As for the near term, I did a little searching for analogs. Found one with a very similar 500mb pattern. Looks like this one ended well for us. Here's hoping! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MikeB_01 Posted February 8, 2017 Share Posted February 8, 2017 New NAM is further north and stronger... so far Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
colonel717 Posted February 8, 2017 Share Posted February 8, 2017 SREFs jumped up. 5 inch mean. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
colonel717 Posted February 8, 2017 Share Posted February 8, 2017 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
colonel717 Posted February 8, 2017 Share Posted February 8, 2017 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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