snowsux Posted January 31, 2017 Share Posted January 31, 2017 1 hour ago, Ryd10 said: Wxbell euro 0z run. All kinda ironies in that. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
north pgh Posted January 31, 2017 Author Share Posted January 31, 2017 Raining in ford city. Warm air farther north than I anticipated. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jwilson Posted January 31, 2017 Share Posted January 31, 2017 This is the winter to ditch long-range model watching. There's no consistency, it seems because the teleconnections are pulling in many different ways. I say pick the strongest or most volatile index and let that be your major determiner. I'm also not a professional so it's more than possible I'm not adept enough at synthesizing why the long range this winter has been all over the map, flip-flopping, etc, but almost nothing has been good for us. At this point I think if we do get a storm of any significance we won't know until we're 36 hours or less from the start. I'm ignoring anything beyond four days outside of the overall forcing by the various indices. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rd9108 Posted January 31, 2017 Share Posted January 31, 2017 1 hour ago, jwilson said: This is the winter to ditch long-range model watching. There's no consistency, it seems because the teleconnections are pulling in many different ways. I say pick the strongest or most volatile index and let that be your major determiner. I'm also not a professional so it's more than possible I'm not adept enough at synthesizing why the long range this winter has been all over the map, flip-flopping, etc, but almost nothing has been good for us. At this point I think if we do get a storm of any significance we won't know until we're 36 hours or less from the start. I'm ignoring anything beyond four days outside of the overall forcing by the various indices. Triple Phaser!!!! It's in Kansas though. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MikeB_01 Posted January 31, 2017 Share Posted January 31, 2017 1 hour ago, jwilson said: This is the winter to ditch long-range model watching. There's no consistency, it seems because the teleconnections are pulling in many different ways. I say pick the strongest or most volatile index and let that be your major determiner. I'm also not a professional so it's more than possible I'm not adept enough at synthesizing why the long range this winter has been all over the map, flip-flopping, etc, but almost nothing has been good for us. At this point I think if we do get a storm of any significance we won't know until we're 36 hours or less from the start. I'm ignoring anything beyond four days outside of the overall forcing by the various indices. I still think with all of the indictors, between the stratospheric polar warming, the MJO moving into correct phasing, we are still in good shape for February. I am not saying anything will verify, but im holding out hope for the pattern we have been waiting for to finally happen. Just for fun, here is the GEFS. Nice trough with some blocking. Good pattern Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ChalkHillSnowNut Posted January 31, 2017 Share Posted January 31, 2017 little of a huron connection tonight/tomorrow..... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stinkbugspecialist Posted February 1, 2017 Share Posted February 1, 2017 1 hour ago, ChalkHillSnowNut said: little of a huron connection tonight/tomorrow..... Hey does this mean more lake affect?? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jwilson Posted February 1, 2017 Share Posted February 1, 2017 7 hours ago, Ryd10 said: Triple Phaser!!!! It's in Kansas though. So a '93 repeat is on the table? Ha! Too bad we'd end up on the warm side in that scenario. 7 hours ago, MikeB_01 said: I still think with all of the indictors, between the stratospheric polar warming, the MJO moving into correct phasing, we are still in good shape for February. I am not saying anything will verify, but im holding out hope for the pattern we have been waiting for to finally happen. *snip* I do agree with you with a huge caveat. With the MJO possibly heading toward Phase 8 and likewise a possible -AO, which would be a first since November, we might have a shot. I'm still hesitant to believe these predictions just yet because we've seen the flip-flipping that goes on long range. If these things end up aligning who knows, but that seems to be a big if this year. I think we have about 10 days for these things to sort themselves out. Late February (20th+) isn't a typical "event" timeframe, while March is a big wildcard. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psunate1977 Posted February 1, 2017 Share Posted February 1, 2017 Right now. The first 12 days of Feb looks blah. When it's warm, it rains. When we get cold enough for snow there is no moisture. Jst doesn't look like our winter. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psunate1977 Posted February 1, 2017 Share Posted February 1, 2017 hit a total whiteout driving on 66 and 22. Everything was covered. This was around 130 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SteelCity08 Posted February 1, 2017 Share Posted February 1, 2017 Well at least snow showers are likely on Sunday between 7 and 8 am. So there's that to look forward to. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rd9108 Posted February 1, 2017 Share Posted February 1, 2017 Well we may not get snow from it but mid February until March looks like it's setting up for a good pattern. Only thing that's hostile is the EPO but we at least get some blocking it looks like. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RitualOfTheTrout Posted February 1, 2017 Share Posted February 1, 2017 21 minutes ago, Ryd10 said: Well we may not get snow from it but mid February until March looks like it's setting up for a good pattern. Only thing that's hostile is the EPO but we at least get some blocking it looks like. If things play out right we might get at least a good 2 week period end of Feb. MJO is projected to go into phase 8 in a pretty robust state by both Euro and GFS: Here are how the phases correlate to sensible weather: If the warming in the strat can continue maybe that lends a hand in helping to get some blocking around the same time. Keep in mind though, models aren't great with MJO forecasts, which is partially why the good look we had sorta dissipated as the MJO was originally forecast to be closer to the COD during the warm phases but that changed and thus the pattern isn't looking as good for the next 10 days. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
north pgh Posted February 2, 2017 Author Share Posted February 2, 2017 Picked up a quick 1/2 inch last hour in a nice squall. Sun is coming out so I am sure the melting will begin. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
north pgh Posted February 2, 2017 Author Share Posted February 2, 2017 Posting this from the Central Pa Folks. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
colonel717 Posted February 2, 2017 Share Posted February 2, 2017 1 hour ago, north pgh said: Posting this from the Central Pa Folks. Good stuff. Thanks for posting. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rd9108 Posted February 2, 2017 Share Posted February 2, 2017 I don't have the Euro anymore but it sounds like it's terrible for the next 10 days with no help in sight. The winter that never was continues. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
north pgh Posted February 3, 2017 Author Share Posted February 3, 2017 I know it is 10 days away but could you imagine Virginia Beach getting a second snowstorm this year to our zero? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Mailman Posted February 3, 2017 Share Posted February 3, 2017 1 hour ago, north pgh said: I know it is 10 days away but could you imagine Virginia Beach getting a second snowstorm this year to our zero? It's actually 7-8 days away! Haha. The trend seems to be going in our favor for the last couple of runs on the GFS. Euro shows no storm for that period, I do believe. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rd9108 Posted February 3, 2017 Share Posted February 3, 2017 31 minutes ago, Mailman said: It's actually 7-8 days away! Haha. The trend seems to be going in our favor for the last couple of runs on the GFS. Euro shows no storm for that period, I do believe. Yeah until it disappears at day 4. We have seen this far too many times these past few years. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RitualOfTheTrout Posted February 3, 2017 Share Posted February 3, 2017 Fear not! Our fortunes are about to take a turn for the better, Dennis Bowman has been brought out of retirement to fill in for Jeff V. Some old school Met mojo to bring back some luck from the early / mid 90s. What a stretch 92-96 was, all 3 season in a row with 70+ inches. Most everything just looks awful for the next 10 days... pretty soon we are going to be running out of time. I really hope we don't end up with a miserable March and April... Currently 5th lowest snowfall in recorded history with 15.6 inches total thus far, although I doubt we make it through all of Feb and March without scoring at least another 6-8 inches, which would still be lousy but there are plenty of seasons with totals in the 20 inch range. I guess at some point we have to pay the price for the 77.6 inches in 09-10, regression to the mean as they say in statistics.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rd9108 Posted February 3, 2017 Share Posted February 3, 2017 Where's Jeff V going? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowsux Posted February 3, 2017 Share Posted February 3, 2017 2 hours ago, RitualOfTheTrout said: Most everything just looks awful for the next 10 days... pretty soon we are going to be running out of time. I really hope we don't end up with a miserable March and April... Currently 5th lowest snowfall in recorded history with 15.6 inches total thus far, although I doubt we make it through all of Feb and March without scoring at least another 6-8 inches, which would still be lousy but there are plenty of seasons with totals in the 20 inch range. I guess at some point we have to pay the price for the 77.6 inches in 09-10, regression to the mean as they say in statistics.. Barring a major storm, I'd say we'll most likely hit at least 25" for the whole season. That's relatively easy to accomplish in late winter (another ten inches) from all of the little nickle and dime events that inevitably occur, though it won't feel like anything because it will melt so quickly. I think the idea of any prolonged cold/snowy conditions can pretty much be tossed at this point though. The stratospheric warming isn't gonna portend to a favorable setup in the east for snow and cold. At least not for any tangible length of time. There's really nothing left to hold onto at this point if you're looking for any anomalous, long-term cold or snowy spells in our neck of the woods. As for the road ahead though, I certainly wouldn't rule out one or two moderately heavy, wet snowstorms between now and St. Patrick's day. That's more than a possibility, and quite frankly I'd be surprised if this pattern didn't lead to at least one. I'm not a fan of winter weather, but I really don't mind those late-season 4-6 inch events. They're nice to look at, and the snow melts in a couple of days before it has a chance to get all discolored and nasty. As for March, I'm expecting to see pretty much the same type of pattern we're seeing now: Ups and downs, with plenty of chances for snow up until about St. Patrick's day. Then maybe one or two typical short-lived cold snaps in April, but by all accounts a pretty textbook climb out of winter. There's really nothing at this point suggests we're gonna have a march like 2013, 2008, etc. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RitualOfTheTrout Posted February 3, 2017 Share Posted February 3, 2017 8 hours ago, Ryd10 said: Where's Jeff V going? I think he got bit by the ground hog and had to take medical leave... lol but really it is some sort of medical leave per twitter: Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RitualOfTheTrout Posted February 4, 2017 Share Posted February 4, 2017 Under a decent snow band right now, wasn't expecting that tonight. Getting a nice coating. I love snow with temps in the 20s... such a tease, I wish we could get one good storm. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rd9108 Posted February 4, 2017 Share Posted February 4, 2017 28 minutes ago, RitualOfTheTrout said: Under a decent snow band right now, wasn't expecting that tonight. Getting a nice coating. I love snow with temps in the 20s... such a tease, I wish we could get one good storm. I dont have any guidance anymore but I hear the GEFS popped a storm after the cutter next week. Doesn't matter it will be gone in 4 days. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psunate1977 Posted February 4, 2017 Share Posted February 4, 2017 First 14 days of Feb looks blah. Hopefully we get something the last 2 weeks of the month cause we spring ahead early March and I usually start wanting warmer weather when days get longer. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowsux Posted February 4, 2017 Share Posted February 4, 2017 1 hour ago, psunate1977 said: First 14 days of Feb looks blah. Hopefully we get something the last 2 weeks of the month cause we spring ahead early March and I usually start wanting warmer weather when days get longer. Ever since they changed the time switch in March to earlier in the month, it feels weird when it's below normal and snowy, and it's still daylight at 7pm. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CranberryWX Posted February 5, 2017 Share Posted February 5, 2017 06z GFS throws a bone.....on Thursday after the Lakes storm moves up into Canada energy from the plains combines with moisture over Virginia to form a low which rides up the coast. Southern PA, more likely SE PA gets something....one model run so I doubt it will hold. The last few model runs have deminished the strength of the storm on Tuesday. Earlier it looked like it was going to be a howling windstorm for the Lakes and NE, now not so much. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RitualOfTheTrout Posted February 5, 2017 Share Posted February 5, 2017 2 hours ago, TeaysValleyWV said: 06z GFS throws a bone.....on Thursday after the Lakes storm moves up into Canada energy from the plains combines with moisture over Virginia to form a low which rides up the coast. Southern PA, more likely SE PA gets something....one model run so I doubt it will hold. The last few model runs have deminished the strength of the storm on Tuesday. Earlier it looked like it was going to be a howling windstorm for the Lakes and NE, now not so much. Nice to see snow over our area, but like you said we all know it will be gone at 12z. Models have been hinting at the possibility of a follow up wave but this is the furthers NW I have seen it. CMC didn't seem to have anything for it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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