CranberryWX Posted November 23, 2016 Share Posted November 23, 2016 Sleeting in Cranberry for a while, enough to put a little coating on the deck. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rd9108 Posted November 27, 2016 Share Posted November 27, 2016 Looks like it's warm Cutters for the next 10 days. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ChalkHillSnowNut Posted November 27, 2016 Share Posted November 27, 2016 19 hours ago, Ryd10 said: Looks like it's warm Cutters for the next 10 days. freaking fantastic!! guess the foreseen pattern change at the end of November was for naught! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rd9108 Posted November 28, 2016 Share Posted November 28, 2016 2 hours ago, ChalkHillSnowNut said: freaking fantastic!! guess the foreseen pattern change at the end of November was for naught! Looks like the GFS is starting to catch on to the idea that the polar vortex is gonna visit Hudson Bay at the end of the run. first real sign that a winter pattern is starting to emerge. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CranberryWX Posted November 28, 2016 Share Posted November 28, 2016 19 hours ago, Ryd10 said: Looks like the GFS is starting to catch on to the idea that the polar vortex is gonna visit Hudson Bay at the end of the run. first real sign that a winter pattern is starting to emerge. Looks like a stormy pattern may be setting up with one after another coming up from the SW. Whether we have cold air over us waits to be seen. The first one early next week looks warm, the next one may have some potential. We'll see.... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RitualOfTheTrout Posted November 29, 2016 Share Posted November 29, 2016 23 hours ago, Ryd10 said: Looks like the GFS is starting to catch on to the idea that the polar vortex is gonna visit Hudson Bay at the end of the run. first real sign that a winter pattern is starting to emerge. Other longer range models are also starting to show a colder pattern taking hold in about 10 days. I'd rather have the cold set in and stick around for the Holidays than have it in November. Although its weak, Nina climo would favor a cold Dec so won't be surprised if it happens. There is a ton of cold air in Siberia, get a cross polar flow going and we will be in good shape. Saw this Euro Ens on Twitter: Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CranberryWX Posted November 30, 2016 Share Posted November 30, 2016 On 11/28/2016 at 3:59 PM, TeaysValleyWV said: Looks like a stormy pattern may be setting up with one after another coming up from the SW. Whether we have cold air over us waits to be seen. The first one early next week looks warm, the next one may have some potential. We'll see.... Day 8 something is going to be in the works. 12Z GFS has cold air plunging in and precip is coming up from the south. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rd9108 Posted November 30, 2016 Share Posted November 30, 2016 I hear murmers that the Euro is 3-6 for us next week. May have to invest in some maps if things start to get going for our area Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SteelCity08 Posted December 1, 2016 Share Posted December 1, 2016 I honestly can't remember the last time we had a storm in the first week of December. Can't wait to start looking at models again, it's been a long 8 months. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rd9108 Posted December 2, 2016 Share Posted December 2, 2016 First eye candy of the season and of course the warm tongue looks alive and well. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CranberryWX Posted December 2, 2016 Share Posted December 2, 2016 The GFS is back and forth with the potential for next Thursday. It disappears then comes back. One thing it's solid on is the cold blast coming in early Thursday morning. After that the next chance is Monday 12/12 and the cold should be in place, though it looks like the warm wedge comes up with it. At least there is something to track now. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jwilson Posted December 2, 2016 Share Posted December 2, 2016 Winter Skywarn training tomorrow, hopefully I'll have something to report sooner rather than later. Not high confidence in early season storms down in my area, but elsewhere there may be something worth checking out. If nothing else, it does appear we'll have the first winter air of the season. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
colonel717 Posted December 2, 2016 Share Posted December 2, 2016 Nice looking fantasy storm Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rd9108 Posted December 4, 2016 Share Posted December 4, 2016 Granted it's more than a week out but this would be the ultimate screw for us. although we never do good with Miller Bs. I bet this forum gets more active this week though. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rd9108 Posted December 4, 2016 Share Posted December 4, 2016 One more because this is hilarious. Sums up storms for our area perfectly Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RitualOfTheTrout Posted December 4, 2016 Share Posted December 4, 2016 That map is pretty accurate! lol Hopefully we have something to track soon and the cold pattern can hold on or reload a few times into Jan. Still pretty up in the air what happens after next weekend. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RitualOfTheTrout Posted December 5, 2016 Share Posted December 5, 2016 Looking pretty certain now we get a decent blast of cold air for the end of the week, then we probably moderate some and the GFS is showing the PV stopping by for a visit by day 10: Snow fall as always will be hit or miss, but at least one ingredient will be nearby, the cold. I think the pattern favors big storms probably cutting to the west but can't rule out a decent shortwave giving us some over running or doing a favorable miller B transfer. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RitualOfTheTrout Posted December 5, 2016 Share Posted December 5, 2016 Was browsing the NWS facebook over lunch and saw they had this posted, actually a pretty decent graphic to put model solutions into laymen terms. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Mailman Posted December 6, 2016 Share Posted December 6, 2016 Pretty substantial ice event in the higher elevations today. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
olafminesaw Posted December 7, 2016 Share Posted December 7, 2016 0z GFS has near freezing temps and 4-5" 10:1 for the Sunday event. I'll take that as my welcome home from college present please. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RitualOfTheTrout Posted December 7, 2016 Share Posted December 7, 2016 8 hours ago, olafminesaw said: 0z GFS has near freezing temps and 4-5" 10:1 for the Sunday event. I'll take that as my welcome home from college present please. Looks like the initial cold front won't have much fanfare precip wise. Friday should look a feel wintry though for us in the lowlands of SWPA as it will be cold and we should have some snow showers \ flurries throughout the day. Sunday into Monday looks interesting, we will be flirting with slop though with the current track north of the area. Hopefully that can end up a bit further south so we can limit the WAA ahead of it. Either way, first legitimate threat of the season, hopefully we can get a couple inches out of it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rd9108 Posted December 7, 2016 Share Posted December 7, 2016 Good chance at some snow coming up but look what the Euro is showing for next week Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
colonel717 Posted December 7, 2016 Share Posted December 7, 2016 Canadian has back to back hits Sunday and Monday Sunday Monday Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
colonel717 Posted December 7, 2016 Share Posted December 7, 2016 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RitualOfTheTrout Posted December 7, 2016 Share Posted December 7, 2016 2 hours ago, colonel717 said: Canadian has back to back hits Sunday and Monday Sunday Monday That is a pretty good setup, we get an initial slug of WAA precip, but the low ends up tracking underneath us so we stay on the cold side. Right now the more reliable models have that low a north of us so we shall see how things play out. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jwilson Posted December 8, 2016 Share Posted December 8, 2016 I do wish I could trust the Canadian from 120+ hours out. Sadly I struggle with it. Also Euro tends to over-do those long-range cold shots. It will likely moderate considerably though it may still be quite below average. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
colonel717 Posted December 8, 2016 Share Posted December 8, 2016 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
olafminesaw Posted December 8, 2016 Share Posted December 8, 2016 1 hour ago, colonel717 said: 850 temps go above freeezing towards the end (about .1" give or take of rain), and then into the 40s at the surface in the evening after its passed. It's certainly better than 12z though. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
colonel717 Posted December 8, 2016 Share Posted December 8, 2016 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rd9108 Posted December 8, 2016 Share Posted December 8, 2016 Just now, colonel717 said: CMC looks like 6-8 also. Still a lot of time but the verdict looks like we see some type of accumulating snow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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