CranberryWX Posted January 18, 2017 Share Posted January 18, 2017 2 hours ago, RitualOfTheTrout said: To bad the conus is completely devoid of any cold air, or this would have probably been interesting to track... Yep. I was thinking the same while looking at the model runs. What could have been....A low developing in Texas riding NE in mid-January, perfect....but not this year. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
colonel717 Posted January 18, 2017 Share Posted January 18, 2017 Looks like GFS trending towards CMC for next week. Each run 850's getting better and better. Still lots of time to sort this out. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
colonel717 Posted January 18, 2017 Share Posted January 18, 2017 Models pretty consistent with clipper pattern setting up starting next weekend. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rd9108 Posted January 18, 2017 Share Posted January 18, 2017 One thing I have noticed is that the mean snowfall has increased on each run of the GEFS. Only thing that worries me is that the AO is strongly positive and if the EPO is lost then we warm right back up. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
colonel717 Posted January 18, 2017 Share Posted January 18, 2017 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
colonel717 Posted January 18, 2017 Share Posted January 18, 2017 Cold enough... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
colonel717 Posted January 18, 2017 Share Posted January 18, 2017 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
colonel717 Posted January 18, 2017 Share Posted January 18, 2017 EURO based on the text looks like could be a couple inches of snow. Surface temps warm though. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rd9108 Posted January 18, 2017 Share Posted January 18, 2017 Hello Euro day 9 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rd9108 Posted January 18, 2017 Share Posted January 18, 2017 Still snowing heavily even in our backyard Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
colonel717 Posted January 18, 2017 Share Posted January 18, 2017 10 minutes ago, Ryd10 said: Hello Euro day 9 Was just going to ask what that looked like. Thanks. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rd9108 Posted January 18, 2017 Share Posted January 18, 2017 5 minutes ago, colonel717 said: Was just going to ask what that looked like. Thanks. Looks like a fringe job but who cares at this point. I don't see a High pressure so idk where the cold is coming from. At least we have things to track. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
colonel717 Posted January 18, 2017 Share Posted January 18, 2017 38 minutes ago, Ryd10 said: Looks like a fringe job but who cares at this point. I don't see a High pressure so idk where the cold is coming from. At least we have things to track. GFS shows a clipper, EURO a coastal...Still big changes coming no doubt before models get a clue. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
colonel717 Posted January 18, 2017 Share Posted January 18, 2017 If only there was cold air.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rd9108 Posted January 18, 2017 Share Posted January 18, 2017 Really getting sick of hearing of no cold air in sight. This pattern change better deliver or we just wasted 4 months tracking rain. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RitualOfTheTrout Posted January 18, 2017 Share Posted January 18, 2017 1 hour ago, colonel717 said: If only there was cold air.. Thankfully the NAVGEM, but if that track would actually verify that would be awful... a 993 low in near perfect spot for Western PA and its rain... I mean we will probably need to wait another 10 years for a track like that! I wouldn't put any faith in that Monday night thing being anything other than a soaker for us, pretty much no matter how it tracks... just a matter of how much rain. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SteelCity08 Posted January 18, 2017 Share Posted January 18, 2017 1 hour ago, colonel717 said: If only there was cold air.. Near perfect track in the heart of winter and its rain lol. Just adds to our misery. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
blackngoldrules Posted January 19, 2017 Share Posted January 19, 2017 6 hours ago, RitualOfTheTrout said: Thankfully the NAVGEM, but if that track would actually verify that would be awful... a 993 low in near perfect spot for Western PA and its rain... I mean we will probably need to wait another 10 years for a track like that! Probably more like 20 years. We probably haven't seen a track like that here since 1994. Just goes to show how many things have to go right for us to get a good snowstorm in this area. That's why we see years and years of misses here. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
colonel717 Posted January 19, 2017 Share Posted January 19, 2017 Getting there with the cold Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rd9108 Posted January 19, 2017 Share Posted January 19, 2017 19 minutes ago, colonel717 said: Getting there with the cold Not happening Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
colonel717 Posted January 19, 2017 Share Posted January 19, 2017 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rd9108 Posted January 19, 2017 Share Posted January 19, 2017 7 minutes ago, colonel717 said: Still time to change a little but after that it looks like some clippers Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
north pgh Posted January 19, 2017 Author Share Posted January 19, 2017 Still time if we can get some more cold air. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rd9108 Posted January 19, 2017 Share Posted January 19, 2017 2 minutes ago, north pgh said: Still time if we can get some more cold air. Gotta see what Mr Euro thinks. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rd9108 Posted January 19, 2017 Share Posted January 19, 2017 From JB, but at least there's hope Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
colonel717 Posted January 19, 2017 Share Posted January 19, 2017 10 minutes ago, Ryd10 said: From JB, but at least there's hope CFS... Toss it... My guess is take the lowest one and half of that is more likely what we get. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
colonel717 Posted January 19, 2017 Share Posted January 19, 2017 UKIE looks promising. Looks like prime track for us if the cold is there. Specifics aren't that important at this point, trends do look good though. Still too far away to get hopes high. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RitualOfTheTrout Posted January 19, 2017 Share Posted January 19, 2017 1 hour ago, Ryd10 said: Not happening I'm still in this camp, going to need some good elevation to see anything out of this. If I were to add one note of optimism its that the trend has been cooler as we get closer and we are at about peak climo for cold. Hail Mary's and pulling the goaltender down 2 goals does sometimes work out which is fairly analogous to this setup but hey, it better than tracking 60s and rain I guess. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
colonel717 Posted January 19, 2017 Share Posted January 19, 2017 5 minutes ago, RitualOfTheTrout said: I'm still in this camp, going to need some good elevation to see anything out of this. If I were to add one note of optimism its that the trend has been cooler as we get closer and we are at about peak climo for cold. Hail Mary's and pulling the goaltender down 2 goals does sometimes work out which is fairly analogous to this setup but hey, it better than tracking 60s and rain I guess. Yep, its is low odds but a good way to tide us over until the projected pattern change. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
colonel717 Posted January 19, 2017 Share Posted January 19, 2017 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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