north pgh Posted January 14, 2017 Author Share Posted January 14, 2017 What to you know? Look what shows up at hour 336. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rd9108 Posted January 14, 2017 Share Posted January 14, 2017 3 hours ago, RitualOfTheTrout said: Heard some pings earlier, now seeing some snowflakes falling. Hopefully stay out of the zr though. Not really expecting much up this way so I was surprised to see areas as far north as Kittanning in the advisory, but then again it doesn't take much ice to create a big problem. 2 minutes ago, north pgh said: What to you know? Look what shows up at hour 336. So like 60 more model runs. You're saying there's a chance. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
colonel717 Posted January 14, 2017 Share Posted January 14, 2017 3 hours ago, north pgh said: What to you know? Look what shows up at hour 336. 336, Loser.... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
blackngoldrules Posted January 14, 2017 Share Posted January 14, 2017 336, Loser.... Yeah, what a loser. Keep your fantasy storms to yourself you loser. Sent from my SM-G920P using Tapatalk Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
colonel717 Posted January 15, 2017 Share Posted January 15, 2017 Looks like the cold keeps getting moved back. What looked promising for a few days has turned into a bunch of meandering lows that turn into cutters with no sustained cold nor snow thru the 31st. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RitualOfTheTrout Posted January 15, 2017 Share Posted January 15, 2017 3 hours ago, colonel717 said: Looks like the cold keeps getting moved back. What looked promising for a few days has turned into a bunch of meandering lows that turn into cutters with no sustained cold nor snow thru the 31st. Seems the EPS and GEPS are still pretty favorable, but GEFS not so much at 6z and 12z, maybe just a blip but will need to be watched if other guidance moves this way. I wouldn't be surprised to see the shift getting pushed back a few times. Sooner the better, but if it kicks in for early Feb I'll take that, its not all bad. Per a poster in the Mid Atlantic forum: I'd rather wait until Feb than next December. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RitualOfTheTrout Posted January 15, 2017 Share Posted January 15, 2017 On 1/14/2017 at 3:58 PM, colonel717 said: 336, Loser.... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RitualOfTheTrout Posted January 15, 2017 Share Posted January 15, 2017 Check out this damage in Buffalo OK from the ice storm... Incredible amount of ice accretion. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
colonel717 Posted January 15, 2017 Share Posted January 15, 2017 1 hour ago, RitualOfTheTrout said: Check out this damage in Buffalo OK from the ice storm... Incredible amount of ice accretion. All I can say is WOW. Glad that isn't us. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MikeB_01 Posted January 16, 2017 Share Posted January 16, 2017 Check out this damage in Buffalo OK from the ice storm... Incredible amount of ice accretion.Saw that earlier on twitter. Crazy amounts of ice. I always feel when we get more than .10 of ice then we got a lot. Can't imagine what those people are going through. Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RitualOfTheTrout Posted January 16, 2017 Share Posted January 16, 2017 11 hours ago, MikeB_01 said: Saw that earlier on twitter. Crazy amounts of ice. I always feel when we get more than .10 of ice then we got a lot. Can't imagine what those people are going through. Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk The thing I don't like about ice is how dangerous it can be, especially if people aren't expecting it. It takes very little to put a nasty glaze on the roads. I'd honestly prefer being in the .1 range as the hype machine would at least warn the public. Not saying I am rooting for an ice storm, but a .1 glaze after a snow storm wouldn't be that terrible, once you start getting higher than that things get bad fast. I remember back in the early mid 90s, don't remember the storm, but we got a pretty solid zr event on top of a snow pack. Sure made sledding fun and I just remember looking outside as everything shimmered at night. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RitualOfTheTrout Posted January 16, 2017 Share Posted January 16, 2017 17 hours ago, RitualOfTheTrout said: Seems the EPS and GEPS are still pretty favorable, but GEFS not so much at 6z and 12z, maybe just a blip but will need to be watched if other guidance moves this way. I wouldn't be surprised to see the shift getting pushed back a few times. Sooner the better, but if it kicks in for early Feb I'll take that, its not all bad. Per a poster in the Mid Atlantic forum: I'd rather wait until Feb than next December. Seems like 00z an 06z GEFS are back on the -EPO +PNA train, still a little slower in overall evolution but a big jump back towards the EPS & GEPS. Rolling this forward you see lower heights take over in the east as the ridge strengthens: Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rd9108 Posted January 16, 2017 Share Posted January 16, 2017 DT even though he is an ass hole talked about the pattern setting up in February. He says he thinks that it will be a snowstorm pattern. Once the ridge gets into a favorable position, blocking occurs and displaces the PV. Once the cold is in place, we still have an active pacific jet that is just hammering the US with system after system. Things can obviously change but it looks like winter may come back for at least a brief period. Whether we cash in or not is irrelevant at this point because we need to get the pattern first and then worry about 500mb and surface maps. Enjoy the warmth because it may change the way things look. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
colonel717 Posted January 17, 2017 Share Posted January 17, 2017 See you next winter... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psunate1977 Posted January 17, 2017 Share Posted January 17, 2017 1 hour ago, colonel717 said: See you next winter... When do we turn clocks ahead? Early or late March? Thanks Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rd9108 Posted January 17, 2017 Share Posted January 17, 2017 Is the CFS even a useful tool? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
colonel717 Posted January 17, 2017 Share Posted January 17, 2017 1 hour ago, Ryd10 said: Is the CFS even a useful tool? I guess that is debatable... I am not buying into any of this big pattern change until I see it. So I am buying the CFS. Been fooled too many times. I see all of these systems that were earlier modeled to be eastern storms keep turning into cutters. Wash, rinse, repeat... I think we still see a few brief cold snaps but believe the transient pattern is set for this winter. Can we luck out at some point with a thread the needle type storm, sure, but odds are certainly against that given our recent history. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
colonel717 Posted January 17, 2017 Share Posted January 17, 2017 3 hours ago, psunate1977 said: When do we turn clocks ahead? Early or late March? Thanks March 12th Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rd9108 Posted January 17, 2017 Share Posted January 17, 2017 31 minutes ago, colonel717 said: I guess that is debatable... I am not buying into any of this big pattern change until I see it. So I am buying the CFS. Been fooled too many times. I see all of these systems that were earlier modeled to be eastern storms keep turning into cutters. Wash, rinse, repeat... I think we still see a few brief cold snaps but believe the transient pattern is set for this winter. Can we luck out at some point with a thread the needle type storm, sure, but odds are certainly against that given our recent history. My negativity must be rubbing off on you now. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
north pgh Posted January 17, 2017 Author Share Posted January 17, 2017 With the current long term pattern setting up for the first week of February it looks like our best bet might be some clipper systems. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CranberryWX Posted January 17, 2017 Share Posted January 17, 2017 Change to below normal around the 27th....book it! In the meantime, heavy rain to track for Monday night. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
colonel717 Posted January 17, 2017 Share Posted January 17, 2017 4 hours ago, Ryd10 said: My negativity must be rubbing off on you now. Ha ha.. You might be right... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
blackngoldrules Posted January 17, 2017 Share Posted January 17, 2017 Enjoying the warmth today. If this winter is going to end up being a major dud, may as well enjoy some torches along the way. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
colonel717 Posted January 18, 2017 Share Posted January 18, 2017 Lots of ground to make up. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MikeB_01 Posted January 18, 2017 Share Posted January 18, 2017 I know that we have been mentioning this for a while, but I really like the way the ensembles look for the end of the month and early feb. That ridge out west looks solid. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jwilson Posted January 18, 2017 Share Posted January 18, 2017 I don't suspect we're going to have a well-below average February in terms of temps, so that "warm" look could largely be based on how January is going to finish (I imagine in the >+3 range). Even if February is around seasonal in terms of temps, that's fine for snow chances, but it wouldn't make a huge dent in the above-average outlook. As long as we're not looking at a continuous torch over the entirety of the month, though you can never ignore that possibility towards the end of February. You can't completely rule out March, either, even though the snow doesn't stick around long come then. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rd9108 Posted January 18, 2017 Share Posted January 18, 2017 1 hour ago, jwilson said: I don't suspect we're going to have a well-below average February in terms of temps, so that "warm" look could largely be based on how January is going to finish (I imagine in the >+3 range). Even if February is around seasonal in terms of temps, that's fine for snow chances, but it wouldn't make a huge dent in the above-average outlook. As long as we're not looking at a continuous torch over the entirety of the month, though you can never ignore that possibility towards the end of February. You can't completely rule out March, either, even though the snow doesn't stick around long come then. I think at this point a lot of us would take a 6-12 storm and call it a year. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RitualOfTheTrout Posted January 18, 2017 Share Posted January 18, 2017 To bad the conus is completely devoid of any cold air, or this would have probably been interesting to track... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
colonel717 Posted January 18, 2017 Share Posted January 18, 2017 Ha ha Canadian... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RitualOfTheTrout Posted January 18, 2017 Share Posted January 18, 2017 19 hours ago, colonel717 said: I guess that is debatable... I am not buying into any of this big pattern change until I see it. So I am buying the CFS. Been fooled too many times. I see all of these systems that were earlier modeled to be eastern storms keep turning into cutters. Wash, rinse, repeat... I think we still see a few brief cold snaps but believe the transient pattern is set for this winter. Can we luck out at some point with a thread the needle type storm, sure, but odds are certainly against that given our recent history. I think a switch back to cold or at least near normal is a given at this point, but to your point how long will it last? I think most of the cold Feb forecasts are relying on PV displacement so time will tell if that does happen and if so how it translates to the pattern. It seems the LaNina is fading, but I think the base state forcing is still probably favoring NINA climo so that ridge in the west will need some help from other factors to be sustainable. Hopefully by this weekend we start to see some snow chances showing up in the 5-10 day range, which will probably be northern stream clippers at least at first. We should also start getting a glimpse into Feb and where the pattern may go. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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