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Pittsburgh PA Winter 2016-2017


north pgh

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Stay safe. Roads are horrible this morning. 


Yeah, they are pretty icy in spots. Air temps are well above freezing but ground temps certainly aren't. Maybe the NWS should think about adding ground temps to their stats. People see that temps are in the upper 30s or around 40 and just assume things should be fine. A morning like this could catch you off guard.

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1 hour ago, psunate1977 said:

Stay safe. Roads are horrible this morning. 

I was wondering what you were talking about....It was 41 degrees.  Driving in saw a kid bit it hard running down his driveway in USC.  Pulled into parking lot at work and was able to literally skate the whole way across the road to my building.   

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30–day  from Cohen

The latest polar cap geopotential height anomalies (PCHs) plot (Figure 10) continues to show normal to warm tropospheric PCHs and cold stratospheric PCHs. There is a pulse of the upward Wave Activity Flux (WAFz) or poleward heat transport predicted over the next few days (Figure 11) that is just strong enough to warm the stratospheric PCH back to near normal. However for next week more below normal WAFz results in a cooling stratospheric PCH. Therefore the stratospheric AO is predicted to remain neutral to slightly positive over the next two weeks (Figure 1).

Figure10bt_0.png

The WAFz pulse predicted for this week does result in warming and ridge building over the North Atlantic sector and Europe (Figure 12). This causes the stratospheric PV to elongate resulting in cross-polar flow directed at eastern North America. Normally I would interpret this as favorable for cold in the Eastern US but the weather models are predicting just the opposite with no change in the pattern. For the following period the stratospheric PV forecast is predicting further disruption with the possibility of a Canadian warming and northwesterly flow directed at the Northeastern US. This is even further favorable for cold in the Eastern US though no signs for cold in the Eastern US are suggested by the weather models. If there is a robust stratospheric PV disruption it typically takes about two weeks for the resultant circulation changes to reach the surface so potentially the signals for cold are for beyond the forecast period of the weather models.

Figure11bt_0.png

As I have discussed previously we run daily a stratospheric PV forecast model. It forecasts the PV strength to peak now and then slowly weaken, bottoming out the fourth week of January. The model is highly speculative and is known to have a high rate of false positives of sudden stratospheric warmings (SSW). The weather models are certainly suggestive of a SSW but even the model forecast I would consider highly uncertain. If a robust SSW does occur, that could potentially force a more persistent cold across the NH, especially North America where the cold has been more transitory than Eurasia. If no SSW occurs, then I would expect the weather to continue to be sensitive to variations in the atmospheric circulation especially along the eastern edges of the ocean basins. One last alternative is if the tropospheric and stratospheric PVs couple with both in a strong phase then mild weather could become more persistent across the hemisphere.

Figure12bt_0.png

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Crazy how icy it is out there. I would have thought that with the amount of time yesterday way above freezing, that the ground temps would be above it. I would also like to see the NWS add ground temps to there stats. Though it probably only has an effect on people on days like this.

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The Weather Channel this morning was pushing a potential for a freezing rain event from Texas to WV and possibly into southern PA.  Also showing 1 to 3" of snow later Saturday afternoon/evening for southern PA.  Depends on where the front lines up and how much cold air stays in place at low levels.  NWS Pitt is also mentioning the potential for Freezing rain/mix precip in their discussion for Saturday.

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33 minutes ago, TeaysValleyWV said:

The Weather Channel this morning was pushing a potential for a freezing rain event from Texas to WV and possibly into southern PA.  Also showing 1 to 3" of snow later Saturday afternoon/evening for southern PA.  Depends on where the front lines up and how much cold air stays in place at low levels.  NWS Pitt is also mentioning the potential for Freezing rain/mix precip in their discussion for Saturday.

18z NAM also picking up on the freezing rain potential.

zr_acc.us_ma.png

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I was expecting to hear spring peepers this morning when I let the dog out.

There is a mother lode of rain stretching back through Indiana heading this way.  With the positive tilt of the line and the way it is moving along its axis, we're in for lot of precip today.  My yard still has some frost left in it which will cause more runoff than usual.

 

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2 hours ago, TeaysValleyWV said:

I was expecting to hear spring peepers this morning when I let the dog out.

There is a mother lode of rain stretching back through Indiana heading this way.  With the positive tilt of the line and the way it is moving along its axis, we're in for lot of precip today.  My yard still has some frost left in it which will cause more runoff than usual.

 

I think the 6z GFS had close to an inch of rain for KPIT, and when the cold front moves through this evening could even be thunder...

 

Just checked the NAM for this weekend and its showing some snow now, maybe an inch or so. Not sure  how accurate that is though and it might be counting slop as all snow. I don't think ZR would be a major impact given marginal temps, antecedent surface temps from today's warmth, and happening during daylight combined with the fact the high will be moving out we should see mainly plain rain after the change over unless things change.

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15 hours ago, Ryd10 said:

Waste of 25$ for the weatherbell subscription. Hopefully GFS isn't off its rocker and we can at least have a chance at a moderate event and maybe a warning criteria. 

What you don't want to pay $25 to track rain showers...Looking like pattern change is being pushed back to end of month now.  See a lot of mets excited for Feb. If we have to wait that long, give me at least some 60's and sun thrown in until then.

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8 minutes ago, north pgh said:

Love it! If you can't get snow in the Winter bring on the Thunderstorms! :clap:

I'm in southern butler county at the moment so hoping to get in on some of the action today. Who would have thought the only weather warning of January could be a for a severe t-storm or a flood. :raining:

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10 minutes ago, colonel717 said:

Continue to see lots of high hopes for Feb...  I have seen several people today post that Feb will likely be coldest and snowiest in as long as they can remember for much of midwest and east.  

Strong winds mostly coming with these severe storms if they hold together. I'll still take that one foot storm in February.

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Special Weather Statement

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Pittsburgh PA
320 PM EST THU JAN 12 2017

OHZ050-PAZ014>016-020>023-029-031-073-074-WVZ001-122130-
Jefferson-Clarion-Allegheny-Armstrong-Westmoreland-Jefferson-Butler-
Beaver-Greene-Indiana-Westmoreland Ridges-Washington-Hancock-
320 PM EST THU JAN 12 2017

...A LINE OF STRONG THUNDERSTORMS CAPABLE OF PRODUCING GUSTY WIND
WILL AFFECT NORTHEASTERN JEFFERSON...INDIANA...JEFFERSON...
NORTHEASTERN GREENE...ARMSTRONG...SOUTHERN BEAVER...SOUTHERN
BUTLER...WASHINGTON...ALLEGHENY...SOUTHERN CLARION...WESTMORELAND AND
SOUTHEASTERN HANCOCK COUNTIES...

At 320 PM EST, radar indicated strong thunderstorms were located
along a line extending from near Bald Eagle to near
Fredericktown-Millsboro. Movement was southeast at 45 mph.

Wind gusts up to 55 mph are possible with these storms.

Locations impacted include...
Pittsburgh...                     Penn Hills...
Mount Lebanon...                  Bethel Park...
Ross Township...                  McCandless Township...
Monroeville...                    Cranberry...
Moon Township...                  McMurray...
Greensburg...                     Weirton...

This includes the following highways...
  Interstate 70 in Pennsylvania between mile markers 15 and 57.

  Pennsylvania Turnpike between mile markers 21 and 100.

  Interstate 79 in Pennsylvania between mile markers 50 and 87, and
  between mile markers 27 and 49.

  Interstate 80 in Pennsylvania between mile markers 61 and 96.

  Parkway North between mile markers 1 and 13.

LAT...LON 4113 7880 4072 7880 4050 7891 4012 7917
      4004 7933 4014 7948 4008 7959 4013 7987
      4009 7984 4007 7990 4003 7988 4001 7999
      3996 8001 3992 7992 3985 7994 3982 7992
      4051 8067 4134 7914 4138 7897 4123 7871
TIME...MOT...LOC 2020Z 313DEG 85KT 4075 7814 4004 8002

$$


 

Flood Advisory

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