RitualOfTheTrout Posted January 8, 2017 Share Posted January 8, 2017 52 minutes ago, colonel717 said: I had to go and ruin it by posting those maps yesterday... It's really a low probability setup to begin with, sure we have the big Arctic high but there is nothing to slow it down, its just going to keep progressing east. We need to hope for the energy to come out in pieces, and time just right with the high to see anything significant. At least its something interesting to look at though, so sick of seeing storms go almost due North and cut into Minnesota (which if the energy is delayed coming out or comes out in one piece that's what we get anyways). Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
colonel717 Posted January 8, 2017 Share Posted January 8, 2017 Agreed. We had a fluke day where models showed phasing and now back to reality. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rd9108 Posted January 8, 2017 Share Posted January 8, 2017 I'm over this winter. Cold and dry just pisses me off. Might as well go into the 40s and rain. Let's face reality our area sucks for snow and this 7 year stretch has just been unlucky for us. One good thing is I don't waste time staring at models. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
blackngoldrules Posted January 8, 2017 Share Posted January 8, 2017 Once we get out of this deep freeze, looks like a big time warm up this week and nothing to get excited about for at least the next week or so. If the storms are going to keep alluding us, may as well have a warm up so I can get all that damn salt off of my truck. All frigid and dry does is raise the heating bill. I'll take temps near 60 instead. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
north pgh Posted January 9, 2017 Author Share Posted January 9, 2017 2 hours ago, blackngoldrules said: Once we get out of this deep freeze, looks like a big time warm up this week and nothing to get excited about for at least the next week or so. If the storms are going to keep alluding us, may as well have a warm up so I can get all that damn salt off of my truck. All frigid and dry does is raise the heating bill. I'll take temps near 60 instead. I AGREE 100%. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RitualOfTheTrout Posted January 9, 2017 Share Posted January 9, 2017 1 hour ago, blackngoldrules said: Once we get out of this deep freeze, looks like a big time warm up this week and nothing to get excited about for at least the next week or so. If the storms are going to keep alluding us, may as well have a warm up so I can get all that damn salt off of my truck. All frigid and dry does is raise the heating bill. I'll take temps near 60 instead. I agree, I like the cold if there is a snow pack to preserve and clippers swing through every once in awhile and the possibility of a bigger storm is not off the table, but bitter cold and dry with a 1/4 inch of dust on the ground really doesn't do it for me. We might pick up some snow Monday night, but it will be washed away Tuesday... Then next weekend is up in the air, but the odds are not in our favor... After that the pattern will really get hostile for snow, and I wouldn't be surprised if we do see some 60s. I'm hoping things turn around by early Feb at the latest, and we can lock in at least a 14 day period with a decent pattern, and maybe we get one moderate snow. There is always the chance of a fluke storm somewhere in between so you can't 100% write it off... At least the Steelers had a nice win and so did the Pens, maybe the models can do the same for us... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
north pgh Posted January 9, 2017 Author Share Posted January 9, 2017 Remember, most of us just want a big one. A foot plus snowstorm in February will still satisfy me when it comes. May as well be warm while we wait. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jwilson Posted January 9, 2017 Share Posted January 9, 2017 The "January Punt" seems to be a more common thing in recent winters. Rarely does it go by anymore where we don't have above-average temps for two weeks or so. Not sure why this is or if I just don't remember January as well from the 90s and early 00s. At this point definitely going to have to hope for a backloaded winter. February almost always seems like the better month for snows anyway. Rarely do we get a consistently strong pattern all winter long, and this winter has been the mix of everything so I'd say all possibilities are on the table. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CranberryWX Posted January 9, 2017 Share Posted January 9, 2017 14 hours ago, blackngoldrules said: Once we get out of this deep freeze, looks like a big time warm up this week and nothing to get excited about for at least the next week or so. If the storms are going to keep alluding us, may as well have a warm up so I can get all that damn salt off of my truck. All frigid and dry does is raise the heating bill. I'll take temps near 60 instead. I agree too. I got some snow(still an inch on the ground) to satisfy me a little bit this season. I'm ready for warm and dry, though would take another big snow storm, not the one or two inchers we seem to get so frequently now. I got down to minus 0.3 F last night before it started rising at 2AM. Our dog woke us up growling at the deer in our backyard checking out my bird feeders. it was cool watching them in the moonlight with the snow background. The cold didn't seem to be bothering them. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rd9108 Posted January 9, 2017 Share Posted January 9, 2017 1 hour ago, TeaysValleyWV said: I agree too. I got some snow(still an inch on the ground) to satisfy me a little bit this season. I'm ready for warm and dry, though would take another big snow storm, not the one or two inchers we seem to get so frequently now. I got down to minus 0.3 F last night before it started rising at 2AM. Our dog woke us up growling at the deer in our backyard checking out my bird feeders. it was cool watching them in the moonlight with the snow background. The cold didn't seem to be bothering them. I guess I'm eating my words now for saying if we get one big storm I wouldn't care if it's quiet the rest of winter. The next 10 days looks uneventful. We could still maybe time something perfectly but the pattern is not good for snow lovers. We usually do better in February and who knows maybe when the short wavest shorten we can get a quick hitter in March. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
colonel717 Posted January 9, 2017 Share Posted January 9, 2017 1 hour ago, Ryd10 said: I guess I'm eating my words now for saying if we get one big storm I wouldn't care if it's quiet the rest of winter. The next 10 days looks uneventful. We could still maybe time something perfectly but the pattern is not good for snow lovers. We usually do better in February and who knows maybe when the short wavest shorten we can get a quick hitter in March. Seeing some signs of pattern flip starting around 1/25. Believe it when I see it... I went thru the GFS 12z and 2m temps starting Sat only go below freezing 2 times thru the whole run and that is to get to 31 degs for a short period. What sucks is temps stay in high 30's and 40's the whole time. No real "torches". GEPS from last night is pretty similar to GFS temps wise . So as Ryd says, maybe we can get lucky and time something just right in that time. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RitualOfTheTrout Posted January 9, 2017 Share Posted January 9, 2017 1 hour ago, colonel717 said: Seeing some signs of pattern flip starting around 1/25. Believe it when I see it... I went thru the GFS 12z and 2m temps starting Sat only go below freezing 2 times thru the whole run and that is to get to 31 degs for a short period. What sucks is temps stay in high 30's and 40's the whole time. No real "torches". GEPS from last night is pretty similar to GFS temps wise . So as Ryd says, maybe we can get lucky and time something just right in that time. Just to highlight your comment, here is the graphical from weather.com, I'm pretty sure its just based on the GFS computer output. Low to mid 40s and rain almost everyday... really a "close the shades" kind of pattern. If its going to be like that hopefully we at least get a couple torch days in the 60s ahead of a some of the cutters or something. It irritating to lose the heart of winter... would be akin to all of august having highs of 65-68 I'll be curious to see the Euro weeklies later today, they have been advertising some hope by the end of January, but whether that holds and proves to be anything more than a transient 5-6 day cool shot remains to be seen. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Mailman Posted January 10, 2017 Share Posted January 10, 2017 PAZ020-021-029-073-074-100800- /O.NEW.KPBZ.ZR.Y.0002.170110T1200Z-170110T2000Z/ BEAVER-ALLEGHENY-WASHINGTON-WESTMORELAND-WESTMORELAND RIDGES- INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...ALIQUIPPA...BEAVER FALLS...AMBRIDGE... MONACA...PITTSBURGH METRO AREA...WASHINGTON...CANONSBURG... MURRYSVILLE...GREENSBURG...NEW KENSINGTON...LIGONIER...DONEGAL 649 PM EST MON JAN 9 2017 ...FREEZING RAIN ADVISORY IN EFFECT FROM 7 AM TO 3 PM EST TUESDAY... THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN PITTSBURGH HAS ISSUED A FREEZING RAIN ADVISORY...WHICH IS IN EFFECT FROM 7 AM TO 3 PM EST TUESDAY. * ICE ACCUMULATIONS...AROUND A TRACE. * TIMING...LIGHT SNOW WILL DEVELOP 4 TO 7 AM TUESDAY THEN CHANGE TO FREEZING RAIN BETWEEN 7 AND 9 AM. FREEZING RAIN WILL THEN TRANSITION TO ALL RAIN TUESDAY AFTERNOON. * IMPACTS...ICE AND SNOW ACCUMULATIONS MAY CREATE SLIPPERY ROAD CONDITIONS AND PRODUCE SCATTERED POWER OUTAGES. * WINDS...SOUTH 10 TO 15 MPH WITH GUSTS UP TO 25 MPH. * TEMPERATURES...IN THE MID 20S...RISING TO NEAR 40 DURING THE AFTERNOON. PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS... A FREEZING RAIN ADVISORY MEANS THAT PERIODS OF FREEZING RAIN OR FREEZING DRIZZLE WILL CAUSE TRAVEL DIFFICULTIES. BE PREPARED FOR SLIPPERY ROADS. SLOW DOWN AND USE CAUTION WHILE DRIVING. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rd9108 Posted January 10, 2017 Share Posted January 10, 2017 It seems like if that ridge tries to push northwest we can develop some blocking. Also looking at the MJO plots it looks like the Euro is trying to take us to phases 8 and 1 which is usually cold. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jwilson Posted January 10, 2017 Share Posted January 10, 2017 That heavy-looking band on radar ended up being almost entirely virga down here. Very brief bout of flurries but otherwise zilch despite its appearance. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RitualOfTheTrout Posted January 10, 2017 Share Posted January 10, 2017 1 hour ago, jwilson said: That heavy-looking band on radar ended up being almost entirely virga down here. Very brief bout of flurries but otherwise zilch despite its appearance. On the models it looks like stuff really dropped off off South of I-70, not that it was a big event up this way, but I did go through a pretty decent burst on the way into work. Maybe picked up a quarter inch or so, but not that it matters much, it will be all gone by tomorrow anyways. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RitualOfTheTrout Posted January 10, 2017 Share Posted January 10, 2017 10 hours ago, Ryd10 said: It seems like if that ridge tries to push northwest we can develop some blocking. Also looking at the MJO plots it looks like the Euro is trying to take us to phases 8 and 1 which is usually cold. Hopefully this progression holds, trough in Alaska retrogrades and heights start building in the PNA \ EPO region, even signs of a weak -NAO and -AO starting. Seems to agree with the weeklies too. Its about all we have to look forward to right now, get the pattern out of the toilet, then maybe some storm threats start showing up again. It would be really nice if we do get a better pattern it holds for at least 2 weeks and doesn't just break down in 5-6 days. Not much of a window if that happens. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CranberryWX Posted January 10, 2017 Share Posted January 10, 2017 We got 1.3" new snow here. Temperature will probably be above freezing within the hour when the next batch of precip arrives. The temperature was up to 31 just before the snow started at 5AM and then dropped to 24 before gradually rising to now....pretty decent cooling effect. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RitualOfTheTrout Posted January 10, 2017 Share Posted January 10, 2017 1 hour ago, TeaysValleyWV said: We got 1.3" new snow here. Temperature will probably be above freezing within the hour when the next batch of precip arrives. The temperature was up to 31 just before the snow started at 5AM and then dropped to 24 before gradually rising to now....pretty decent cooling effect. I noticed the same thing driving into work, it wasn't snowing when I left the house and it was 31, then the heavier band went through and temp dropped to 26, gotta love wetbulbing. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
colonel717 Posted January 10, 2017 Share Posted January 10, 2017 When the warm nose benefits us.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
colonel717 Posted January 10, 2017 Share Posted January 10, 2017 Something to look forward to long term.. Nice to see some potential even if its 2 weeks away. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
north pgh Posted January 10, 2017 Author Share Posted January 10, 2017 44 minutes ago, colonel717 said: Something to look forward to long term.. Nice to see some potential even if its 2 weeks away. Cold air is coming down with this system for sure. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
colonel717 Posted January 10, 2017 Share Posted January 10, 2017 I just hope the GFS isn't ahead of itself with the pattern change as it so often is. CFS has also hinted at late Jan change on overnight run with couple big storm possibilities around 26th and Feb 1. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MikeB_01 Posted January 10, 2017 Share Posted January 10, 2017 1 hour ago, colonel717 said: I just hope the GFS isn't ahead of itself with the pattern change as it so often is. CFS has also hinted at late Jan change on overnight run with couple big storm possibilities around 26th and Feb 1. Big Joe Bastardi was talking about the pattern flip on his daily video today. Cited evidence in the stratosphere (10 MB) for a pattern flip. Not 100% sure on how it works but it seems to make sense. When the stratosphere is cool like in the first picture below, the troposphere is warm, causing the united states to be warm. At the end of the month, the patterns flips the second picture below. With sudden warming in the stratosphere, it causes a significant cool down in the troposphere and in the eastern united states. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MikeB_01 Posted January 10, 2017 Share Posted January 10, 2017 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MikeB_01 Posted January 10, 2017 Share Posted January 10, 2017 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jwilson Posted January 10, 2017 Share Posted January 10, 2017 Other than the issue of verifying over the long-term, the biggest question would be whether any pattern change would stick around or merely be transient as so often has happened this winter. None of the cold shots have stuck around very long. We might finally get some MJO forcing but it doesn't appear to be moving into favorable phases (at first, anyway). The past few runs have been consistent re: two weeks away, but we all know the variability in model forecasting. Let's hope it holds serve for once. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
colonel717 Posted January 10, 2017 Share Posted January 10, 2017 Just 52 more model runs... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RitualOfTheTrout Posted January 11, 2017 Share Posted January 11, 2017 5 hours ago, MikeB_01 said: Big Joe Bastardi was talking about the pattern flip on his daily video today. Cited evidence in the stratosphere (10 MB) for a pattern flip. Not 100% sure on how it works but it seems to make sense. When the stratosphere is cool like in the first picture below, the troposphere is warm, causing the united states to be warm. At the end of the month, the patterns flips the second picture below. With sudden warming in the stratosphere, it causes a significant cool down in the troposphere and in the eastern united states. I'm no expert on the matter either, but when the PV is strong, it tends to consolidate cold dense air underneath it and tends to like to park over the pole. When its weak, its less consolidated and thus pieces of cold air can break off and head towards the equator. The PV gets weakened by various waves around the globe (Rosby etc) breaking into the stratosphere. These events tend to be more frequent late January and February. The GFS is forecasting a wave 1 displacement (shoving the PV off the Pole) which will dislodge cold air southward. A wave 2 displacement is when the vortex actually splits into 2 separate vortexs, although not necessarily at all levels of the atmosphere. If someone with more knowledge on the subject wants to interject or I'd be happy to learn more, buts my basic laymen understanding. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RitualOfTheTrout Posted January 11, 2017 Share Posted January 11, 2017 2 hours ago, colonel717 said: Just 52 more model runs... Plenty of time to get it to track just a bit further east, and maybe strengthen that high to the north. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Recommended Posts
Archived
This topic is now archived and is closed to further replies.