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Pittsburgh PA Winter 2016-2017


north pgh

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Based on the "seven-year itch," Pittsburgh should be due for one in 2017.

Still too earlier for me to buy in, but it's something to keep an eye on for now.  Whether the pattern changes long-term or it just shifts briefly and we hit the window right also remains to be seen.  Obviously the trend has been for these to go North without stopping until the day of, so current position may be less than favorable since we're still in fantasy land.

Both the GFS and Euro having it this early makes things a tad more interesting.  They've had success with these types of systems long-range in the past.  Wouldn't surprise me to see the storm disappear for a few runs, though.

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37 minutes ago, jwilson said:

Based on the "seven-year itch," Pittsburgh should be due for one in 2017.

Still too earlier for me to buy in, but it's something to keep an eye on for now.  Whether the pattern changes long-term or it just shifts briefly and we hit the window right also remains to be seen.  Obviously the trend has been for these to go North without stopping until the day of, so current position may be less than favorable since we're still in fantasy land.

Both the GFS and Euro having it this early makes things a tad more interesting.  They've had success with these types of systems long-range in the past.  Wouldn't surprise me to see the storm disappear for a few runs, though.

Did we skew the numbers though because of last year's storm that missed pittsburgh by 50 or so miles?

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2 hours ago, Ryd10 said:

Did we skew the numbers though because of last year's storm that missed pittsburgh by 50 or so miles?

 

That's a good question and something I wondered myself, but I'd say that one doesn't quite count since it did miss in the end.  I think it's been a while since we've had an "all of PA" type storm so I'm going to propose that we're due for one.

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14 hours ago, MikeB_01 said:

‪http://www.accuweather.com/en/videos/accuweather-experts/cold-and-perhaps-snow-return-to-northeast-late-next-week/2430839568001‬

Pretty good video by Bernie talking about different possibilities for next week.


Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk

The Weather Channel eluded to this in their Friday morning long range winter discussion.  Based on the pattern, if the cold air locked in, the storm track would potentially be from north TX to WV.   Southern PA would be in play.  

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5 hours ago, Ryd10 said:

Bahahahahaha the storm just disappeared on most guidance. Suppression city and sheared out messes. Still a long way out, I'm sure changes will happen. 

Perfectly illustrates the folly of putting to much into a day 10 storm, but given everyone in the East has really been devoid of any good tracking can't blame people for jumping on a bit to early. That being said, it wouldn't be the first time a 10 day threat disappeared from the models for 2-3 days before reappearing in the 3-4 day range. Especially given that the seasonal trend has been for less of a cold push and storms ending up further North. It would be a cruel joke from Ol Ma Nature if we go from warm west cutters to suppressed congrats Myrtle Beach, but gotta roll with the punches.

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On 12/30/2016 at 2:59 PM, jwilson said:

...Wouldn't surprise me to see the storm disappear for a few runs, though.

Right on cue!

Seriously, it's not much to be concerned about right now.  These things happen.  Models have an extremely low verification rate outside of five days.  Even three and four days are a struggle at times.  Best bet is watching the overall pattern and see how it evolves and use that information to gauge a threat.  Individual runs, especially at this range, are just silly.

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28 minutes ago, Mailman said:

Declaring winter as over on January 1st?  Oh lord.  I've always felt like, climatologically, our winters don't even start til January 1st. 

That was sarcasm. Go to the mid Atlantic thread you'd think the world is ending. 

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53 minutes ago, MikeB_01 said:

What is the last storm Pittsburgh metro picked up a solid 12 in? 2010?

Yep, 2/5/2010. 

Before that... 2/16/2003 and 1/4/1994. 

Climos a b****. Lol

2 minutes ago, Ryd10 said:

That was sarcasm. Go to the mid Atlantic thread you'd think the world is ending. 

Yeah, they're an interesting bunch. 

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