colonel717 Posted December 16, 2016 Share Posted December 16, 2016 1 hour ago, RitualOfTheTrout said: Just reading around various threads \ twitter everyone is really down on the incoming pattern next week. It does look lousy, pretty much every thing is wrong. Definitely better the further NW you are in the country that is for sure, but as of right now it doesn't look like an all out shutout for snow. If we do end up wasting the next 3-4 weeks that will be a shame. Just once I'd like to get a solid pattern to establish itself through December 15-Jan-15th. Yea, looking at ensembles and other long term guidance, not looking good thru end of month. Longer term, Jan looking above avg temps and ave precip. The rest of winter avg precip and above avg temps. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MikeB_01 Posted December 16, 2016 Share Posted December 16, 2016 4 minutes ago, colonel717 said: Yea, looking at ensembles and other long term guidance, not looking good thru end of month. Longer term, Jan looking above avg temps and ave precip. The rest of winter avg precip and above avg temps. End of the month looks shot. Looking ahead at the longer term, I like what I am seeing from ENSO. Being ENSO neutral, we should be expecting below average temps for the remainder of the winter. Climate prediction center saying that there is a 50% chance for us to move into a La Nina by fall. If we move into a weak La Nina quicker than expected, we still should be expecting average temps. I'm hoping we stay pretty neutral and can keep the temps around average or below. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
olafminesaw Posted December 16, 2016 Share Posted December 16, 2016 bleh: MESSAGE DATE: DEC 16 2016 07:27:36 THE WSR 88D AT PITTSBURGH REMAINS OUT OF SERVICE. PARTS ARE ON ORDER. RETURN TO SERVICE STILL UNKNOWN. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
colonel717 Posted December 16, 2016 Share Posted December 16, 2016 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
olafminesaw Posted December 16, 2016 Share Posted December 16, 2016 Keep in mind the heavier the precipitation, the lower percentage of freezing rain actually freezes, but still: Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MikeB_01 Posted December 16, 2016 Share Posted December 16, 2016 6 minutes ago, olafminesaw said: Keep in mind the heavier the precipitation, the lower percentage of freezing rain actually freezes, but still: I like this graph. Can you post a link to where you got it from? Thanks Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Mailman Posted December 16, 2016 Share Posted December 16, 2016 http://www.meteor.iastate.edu/~ckarsten/bufkit/image_loader.phtml?site=kpit&nam=on&nam_mos=on&namm=on&gfs_mos=on&gfs=on&gfsm_mos=on&gfsm=on&nws=on&rap=on&obs=on&nam4km=on&con=on&ratio=11&max_t=on&cobb=on&compaction=on&mean_mt=on&max_mt=on&mean=on Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rd9108 Posted December 16, 2016 Share Posted December 16, 2016 It's 12 degrees now and its supposed to rain tomorrow. Makes zero sense. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Evilpens64 Posted December 16, 2016 Share Posted December 16, 2016 Joe Bastardi say in Mid Jan. Winter comes back "Gang Busters Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RitualOfTheTrout Posted December 16, 2016 Share Posted December 16, 2016 6 hours ago, colonel717 said: Yea, looking at ensembles and other long term guidance, not looking good thru end of month. Longer term, Jan looking above avg temps and ave precip. The rest of winter avg precip and above avg temps. 6 hours ago, MikeB_01 said: End of the month looks shot. Looking ahead at the longer term, I like what I am seeing from ENSO. Being ENSO neutral, we should be expecting below average temps for the remainder of the winter. Climate prediction center saying that there is a 50% chance for us to move into a La Nina by fall. If we move into a weak La Nina quicker than expected, we still should be expecting average temps. I'm hoping we stay pretty neutral and can keep the temps around average or below. I don't think its a close the blinds til January type setup for us though. Looks like we will probably average close to normal, maybe a few days above and a few below, not an all out torch like last year. GFS shows some snow chances throughout the run, and we can always get lucky and time something right. Certainly not anything that screams sustained winter weather though. Hopefully we start to see some improvements showing up in the 11-15 day means and they start moving forward in time. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
colonel717 Posted December 16, 2016 Share Posted December 16, 2016 GFS says no fr rain Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rd9108 Posted December 16, 2016 Share Posted December 16, 2016 10 minutes ago, colonel717 said: GFS says no fr rain Interesting Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MikeB_01 Posted December 17, 2016 Share Posted December 17, 2016 I think the GFS is missing on the temperature of the ground. The 2m temp in might be slightly above freezing yet the ground is actually still below freezing. The sounding at 12z tomorrow is showing 33. I would think that the ground would still be below freezing at this point. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ChalkHillSnowNut Posted December 17, 2016 Share Posted December 17, 2016 It's currently 19 here in chalk Hill.... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
olafminesaw Posted December 17, 2016 Share Posted December 17, 2016 All the iterations of the NAM agree on about .6" of ice for the middle of the county. About half of that falls with a temp below 30, on the 3km. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MikeB_01 Posted December 17, 2016 Share Posted December 17, 2016 4 minutes ago, olafminesaw said: All the iterations of the NAM agree on about .6" of ice for the middle of the county. About half of that falls with a temp below 30, on the 3km. Amazing that the 18z GFS has nothing. Even if it is 1/3 of the ice event the NAMs are calling for, that is still significant. Should be an interesting next 12 hours to see how this plays out. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
olafminesaw Posted December 17, 2016 Share Posted December 17, 2016 Quite the dry layer to overcome on the evening sounding, so I don't think there will be much or any snow before the main event, which all the models have as a fast changeover. I figure saturation may keep temps from rising a ton until the heavier stuff arrives, but that's where my knowledge ends and speculation begins. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoraopolisWx Posted December 17, 2016 Share Posted December 17, 2016 Didn't stay up for any initial "thump" of snow. Was hoping to see something late last evening, but nothing materialized. However the ice is as advertised, with sleet embedded in said ice. It will be interesting to see how long it takes for any untreated pavement to melt this morning. Lol, not much more to say. Would be nice to get a faster changeover with the anafront moisture, but I'm not gonna put to much stock in that. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CranberryWX Posted December 17, 2016 Share Posted December 17, 2016 Freezing rain picked up again, still 32F. About a .25" coating of ice on everything that was clear of previous snow. When I got up at 5AM it was 27 degrees and raining. There was no sign that we got any snow last night. Driveway is a sheet of ice. I took the wife to work this morning, 79 was wet with a few slushy spots, side roads all slush. I'm surprised I didn't see any tree damage or power lines down with the amount of ice covering everything. I hope the snow cover stays after today. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
colonel717 Posted December 17, 2016 Share Posted December 17, 2016 We may have some hope for Christmas Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
olafminesaw Posted December 17, 2016 Share Posted December 17, 2016 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MikeB_01 Posted December 17, 2016 Share Posted December 17, 2016 Anyone else measure some ice totals this morning? I measured a few spots and found total ice accretion to be around .15 in in Lebo. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoraopolisWx Posted December 17, 2016 Share Posted December 17, 2016 32 minutes ago, MikeB_01 said: Anyone else measure some ice totals this morning? I measured a few spots and found total ice accretion to be around .15 in in Lebo. From what I saw this morning, .15 -.20 is about right. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RitualOfTheTrout Posted December 17, 2016 Share Posted December 17, 2016 1 hour ago, olafminesaw said: Well that should just about nuke all the ice & snow that we got. lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RitualOfTheTrout Posted December 17, 2016 Share Posted December 17, 2016 6 hours ago, CoraopolisWx said: Didn't stay up for any initial "thump" of snow. Was hoping to see something late last evening, but nothing materialized. However the ice is as advertised, with sleet embedded in said ice. It will be interesting to see how long it takes for any untreated pavement to melt this morning. Lol, not much more to say. Would be nice to get a faster changeover with the anafront moisture, but I'm not gonna put to much stock in that. Me either, I just went to bed around 11:30, didn't see any snow. Woke up around 4am and could hear the pings. I would say the ice did verify here too. Everything ice coated, starting to melt off the car now. Anafront stuff looks like maybe a half inch I'd say. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RitualOfTheTrout Posted December 17, 2016 Share Posted December 17, 2016 Not a terrible look by day 10 on 12z GFS, looks like deep trough off of Alaska is getting replaced by higher heights again. This would probably similar to the pattern we just had, just in the heart of winter climo, so even if we get some western tracks probably more front loaded \ ice stuff. Will be interesting to see how this plays out. I would think as the rolls forward you will start to see cold dumps into the center of the country pushing east again. Plus all that aside I don't think we will be 100 percent void of things to watch until then. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
colonel717 Posted December 17, 2016 Share Posted December 17, 2016 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
blackngoldrules Posted December 17, 2016 Share Posted December 17, 2016 Quite a spread in temps right now. I'm at 34 right now in Bethel. Washington is at 52. I only live about 25 minutes from Washington. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rd9108 Posted December 17, 2016 Share Posted December 17, 2016 16 minutes ago, colonel717 said: Let's see if this actually pans out. All the short range models had us getting 2 inches and we ended up with all virga before the ice and sleet came. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
blackngoldrules Posted December 17, 2016 Share Posted December 17, 2016 Just now, Ryd10 said: Let's see if this actually pans out. All the short range models had us getting 2 inches and we ended up with all virga before the ice and sleet came. We rarely get much on the back end of these types of systems. Usually most of the moisture is gone by that point. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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