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November Obs and Disco Thread


H2O

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40 minutes ago, MN Transplant said:

Another fun game of spot the front.

 

Yup! This looks to be our first legit cold front in quite sometime. I've been here 2 years and haven't experienced a huge plunge in temperatures. Hopefully that changes this weekend. :D BTW, I'm not ecstatic about accumulating snow in our mountains near Charlottesville, but flakes are definitely possible. I may head up to the BRP to experience some of the wind coming our way! WOO! 

(PS: Awesome image. Where can one find that?) 

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3 hours ago, WxReese said:

Yup! This looks to be our first legit cold front in quite sometime. I've been here 2 years and haven't experienced a huge plunge in temperatures. Hopefully that changes this weekend. :D BTW, I'm not ecstatic about accumulating snow in our mountains near Charlottesville, but flakes are definitely possible. I may head up to the BRP to experience some of the wind coming our way! WOO! 

(PS: Awesome image. Where can one find that?) 

Didn't realize that their images weren't watermarked in some way.  

http://coolwx.com/cgi-bin/getbufr.cgi?region=VA&stn=KDCA&model=nam&time=current&field=tempa

 

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13 minutes ago, BristowWx said:

starting to think my hopes of a cool cloudy Thanksgiving are going to be dashed.  2m temps dont look chilly at all.  not a torch I hope

Ensembles look seasonal.  Not sure what you're hoping for.  I wouldn't trust operational models at this range.

 

image.png

image.png

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42 minutes ago, MN Transplant said:

Didn't realize that their images weren't watermarked in some way.  

http://coolwx.com/cgi-bin/getbufr.cgi?region=VA&stn=KDCA&model=nam&time=current&field=tempa

 

D'OH! I should have recognized my old professor's graphics... :( Sigh.... hahah! Oh well, that's what happens when you've been out of school for 6 years. Thanks for the link! 

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8 minutes ago, WinterWxLuvr said:

Ensembles look seasonal.  Not sure what you're hoping for.  I wouldn't trust operational models at this range.

 

image.png

image.png

Looking for 30s with flurries.  Just kidding.  This is fine I guess.  you are my voice of reason.  Just no sun please.  

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No kidding

 

DROUGHT INFORMATION STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BALTIMORE MD/WASHINGTON DC
1100 AM EST THU NOV 17 2016

...MODERATE DROUGHT NOW IN DC AND WESTERN SUBURBS...

SYNOPSIS...
AS OF NOVEMBER 15TH 2016...THE U.S. DROUGHT MONITOR INDICATES
MODERATE DROUGHT /D1/ CONDITIONS HAVE DEVELOPED ACROSS ALL OF
MONTGOMERY COUNTY MARYLAND...AND PORTIONS OF FREDERICK...CARROLL...
HOWARD...AND PRINCE GEORGES COUNTIES IN MARYLAND...AS WELL AS
PORTIONS OF THE DISTRICT OF COLUMBIA...AND PORTIONS OF
LOUDOUN...FAIRFAX...FAUQUIER...PRINCE WILLIAM...AND ARLINGTON
COUNTIES AS WELL AS THE CITIES OF FAIRFAX AND FALLS CHURCH. MOST OF
THE REMAINDER OF THE BALTIMORE/WASHINGTON HYDROLOGIC SERVICE AREA IS
DESIGNATED AS ABNORMALLY DRY /D0/.
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48 minutes ago, MN Transplant said:

No kidding

 


DROUGHT INFORMATION STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BALTIMORE MD/WASHINGTON DC
1100 AM EST THU NOV 17 2016

...MODERATE DROUGHT NOW IN DC AND WESTERN SUBURBS...

SYNOPSIS...
AS OF NOVEMBER 15TH 2016...THE U.S. DROUGHT MONITOR INDICATES
MODERATE DROUGHT /D1/ CONDITIONS HAVE DEVELOPED ACROSS ALL OF
MONTGOMERY COUNTY MARYLAND...AND PORTIONS OF FREDERICK...CARROLL...
HOWARD...AND PRINCE GEORGES COUNTIES IN MARYLAND...AS WELL AS
PORTIONS OF THE DISTRICT OF COLUMBIA...AND PORTIONS OF
LOUDOUN...FAIRFAX...FAUQUIER...PRINCE WILLIAM...AND ARLINGTON
COUNTIES AS WELL AS THE CITIES OF FAIRFAX AND FALLS CHURCH. MOST OF
THE REMAINDER OF THE BALTIMORE/WASHINGTON HYDROLOGIC SERVICE AREA IS
DESIGNATED AS ABNORMALLY DRY /D0/.

Surprised it took them this long.

I mean, here's a look at CHO's rainfall by month. We've only picked up 0.95" in the past 6 weeks! I doubt we'll get much, if any, Saturday. Thanksgiving time-frame is looking a tad better; even then, I'm not going to get my hopes up until a few days out. That drought in the SE is really doing a number, methinks, on moisture transport to the north. 

YearlyRain.jpg

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For what seemed to be a somewhat impressive looking stormy period next week for the holiday weekend, not snow, but at least unsettled, it looks fairly boring and seasonal now.  Not sure what the exact temp was last Thanksgiving, 60 I think, but not seeing how this year is all that different with a high in the upper 50s.  I often forget how long pattern changes really take to materialize.  

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