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November Obs and Disco Thread


H2O

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11 minutes ago, mattie g said:

That's pretty cool. I can never quite remember...what's your elevation? Is it something like 450'?

It got to 29 here.

In the vicinity of 470'.  So, I have that and the extreme microclimate setting of being on top of a little rise.  There are numerous mornings where my grass is nice and green while the school yard 30' below me is white.  Combo of inversion/cold-air drainage.

12z 4km NAM has backed all the way off of its prior rainy solution.  Less than a quarter of an inch now. 

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I walked out of the gym as the rain was beginning in Charlottesville. Honestly, some of it sounded like it was sleet, but I couldn't get any confirmation in my hand or car. :/ Even then, it's been a glorious day! Lots of clouds, temperatures in the low to mid 50s and a drizzly rain. More of this, please! :D

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Don't know how much truth there is in it, but from my backyard out towards Leesburg and then further west... Euro has snow for Sunday. Temps are marginal though, so the ~5" in my backyard is being taken with a grain of salt. Upwards of 14" for places in far western MD and into WV. 

a few locations:

Westminster 5"

Frederick 3"

Ft Meade 1"

Leesburg 2"

Winchester 4"

Thurmont 9"

Martinsburg 4"

Manassas 2"

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5 hours ago, mappy said:

Don't know how much truth there is in it, but from my backyard out towards Leesburg and then further west... Euro has snow for Sunday. Temps are marginal though, so the ~5" in my backyard is being taken with a grain of salt. Upwards of 14" for places in far western MD and into WV. 

a few locations:

Westminster 5"

Frederick 3"

Ft Meade 1"

Leesburg 2"

Winchester 4"

Thurmont 9"

Martinsburg 4"

Manassas 2"

 

I've been trying not so say anything because I've really felt there is no chance this far south except for maybe some flakes falling with temps in the mid 30's early sunday morning. But both euro's have had it and now 12z does it again. Seems complicated even though. The vort digging get's backed up by the storm off the coast and goes sharply negative before closing off just north of us. 

GFS is progressive as usual but is the euro too amplified? We're inside of 5 days now. Weird. 

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Just now, Bob Chill said:

 

I've been trying not so say anything because I've really felt there is no chance this far south except for maybe some flakes falling with temps in the mid 30's early sunday morning. But both euro's have had it and now 12z does it again. Seems complicated even though. The vort digging get's backed up by the storm off the coast and goes sharply negative before closing off just north of us. 

GFS is progressive as usual but is the euro too amplified? We're inside of 5 days now. Weird. 

12z Euro isn't nearly as generous with the snow amounts for areas outside the favorable ridges, as 00z was. Either way, could be some snow blowing around, for those night owls up at 12-2am 

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3 minutes ago, mappy said:

12z Euro isn't nearly as generous with the snow amounts for areas outside the favorable ridges, as 00z was. Either way, could be some snow blowing around, for those night owls up at 12-2am 

It's a long duration "event" on the 12z. lol. What a late November weenie run. Especially for your yard. Surface sucks but if you get a couple hours of heavies you will be able to take your first measurement of the young season. haha

The vort panels are pretty sick. If it transpires that way you would have to think heavy precip at times mixed in there. Wind driven too with 30+mph gusts. 

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7 minutes ago, WxUSAF said:

Yoda, don't think we can do wxbell euro maps. Just describe the details in text. Thanks 

Alright that's what I thought, thanks for letting me know... this is through 132

Upslope snows are decent for Allegheny Front... 6-12" of snow... I-81 corridor looks like 1-3"... N MD 2-5" for areas NW of BWI towards Hagerstown... and 0-1" from EZF north

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16 minutes ago, Bob Chill said:

It's a long duration "event" on the 12z. lol. What a late November weenie run. Especially for your yard. Surface sucks but if you get a couple hours of heavies you will be able to take your first measurement of the young season. haha

The vort panels are pretty sick. If it transpires that way you would have to think heavy precip at times mixed in there. Wind driven too with 30+mph gusts. 

I agree. Looks good for mid November. I was just talking most realistic scenario, blowing snow overnight with perhaps some accumulations for the usual sweet spots. 

something to keep an eye on

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Raw euro temp output has mappyville @ 34 during the best part overnight Saturday. That's workable. The later panels that show "accumulating snow"  are a tenth here and there for like 12-18 hours with temps above freezing. That's not going to do anything on the ground. I don't expect much in my yard. That's for sure. But I'll be rooting for the northern folks to get on the board.

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1 minute ago, Bob Chill said:

Raw was probably a bad choice of words. I was referring to the verbatim temp data on zoomed MD panel. 

Ahhh -- I was gonna say, where the hell is there raw text output for the Euro.

However, I saw what you saw... was just telling waterboy I was feeling a little giddy over the prospects. 

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Just now, mappy said:

Ahhh -- I was gonna say, where the hell is there raw text output for the Euro.

However, I saw what you saw... was just telling waterboy I was feeling a little giddy over the prospects. 

Accuwx pro has text output. Probably the best part of their model suite. I won't pay just for that though. I like looking at pretty graphics anyways. 

 

Mappyville and PSUtown seem to have a decent chance at something here. Would be nice if the GFS steps into the fray. Right now the GFS/GEFS combo says good luck to the euro. EPS only has modest support but it's enough to stay interested for sure. 

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1 minute ago, Bob Chill said:

Accuwx pro has text output. Probably the best part of their model suite. I won't pay just for that though. I like looking at pretty graphics anyways. 

 

Mappyville and PSUtown seem to have a decent chance at something here. Would be nice if the GFS steps into the fray. Right now the GFS/GEFS combo says good luck to the euro. EPS only has modest support but it's enough to stay interested for sure. 

Looking at the 500's at the 96 hr and the GFS and Euro are very similar. Only difference is, is that the Euro is a little sharper and digs deeper with the trough giving it a chance to cutoff in our region unlike the GFS which cuts off further north.

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