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November Obs and Disco Thread


H2O

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day1probotlk_20161130_1200_torn_prt.gif
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I can see their justification for the 2% tor given the improving wind field late this afternoon into this evening, but CAPE is extremely low, and it probably won't be enough to produce a tor given how dominated it will be by the shear.

...MID ATLANTIC STATES...
   SOUTHERLY SURFACE WINDS WILL ALLOW FOR LOWER TO MID 60S DEWPOINTS
   AND WEAK INSTABILITY TO DEVELOP DURING THE DAY...AHEAD OF THE COLD
   FRONT. THIS FRONT WILL ARRIVE LATE ACROSS THE APPALACHIANS...BUT
   FAVORABLE LARGE-SCALE LIFT COUPLED WITH VERY STRONG SHEAR PROFILES
   MAY RESULT IN MARGINALLY SEVERE STORMS DESPITE VERY WEAK
   INSTABILITY. A FEW FAST-MOVING LINE SEGMENTS...OR PERHAPS EVEN
   LOW-TOPPED SUPERCELLS IF INSTABILITY IS STRONG ENOUGH...ARE EXPECTED...
   WITH LOCALIZED STRONG WIND GUSTS THE MAIN THREAT DURING THE EVENING
   HOURS BEFORE THE FRONT MOVES OFFSHORE OVERNIGHT.

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8 minutes ago, mattie g said:

MN...what have you gotten in the last day? My Stone Age gauge was partially broken and then summarily and unceremoniously discarded by my wife, so I'm without even the most rudimentary of measurements. I'm guessing something like 0.3" or so?

Was at 0.20" through 7am via my CoCoRahs gauge, and the VP2 says 0.08" since, so yeah, you are probably in the vicinity of 0.25"-0.30".

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Updated morning AFD from LWX re chance of severe this afternoon/evening

SPC currently has our area outlined in a marginal risk for
severe weather (due primarily to very high shear)...with the best
potential coming later this afternoon/evening as a thin line of
showers (and perhaps some embedded thunder) move through. This
might not be until after 6 PM for the DC/Balt metro. Though, best
chance for locally stronger wind gusts would be across southern
MD.

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