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November Obs and Disco Thread


H2O

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6 minutes ago, high risk said:

These strong shear / weak instability events rarely perform well here, but they do occasionally work out.   So while a repeat of Iowa yesterday is probably unlikely, some wind/weak tornado potential probably does exist.

I would def argue its not non-zero, but enough of a risk is there if one wants to believe the NAM soundings for the area

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22 minutes ago, yoda said:

I would def argue its not non-zero, but enough of a risk is there if one wants to believe the NAM soundings for the area

    I don't disagree with this, but while that sounding has impressive shear and some cape, it's that tall, skinny cape (due to weak lapse rates) that is tough to work with.    It seems that low cape is ok as long as the lapse rates in the low levels are decent, and those soundings don't really show that.   But hey, if we can heat up a little more later Wednesday, maybe we can hit the jackpot.

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15 minutes ago, North Balti Zen said:

Looked like from a glance at radar they cleaned up with heavy precip from Philly on northeast toward NYC. Hope that isn't a winter preview...

It's funny that you mention this because when I was looking at the local radar this morning before leaving for work, it had the look of a Miller B.

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2 hours ago, high risk said:

      tonight and tomorrow morning seem like the least likely part of this "event" to cash in.

      I'm going to rescind this earlier comment.  hi-res guidance now seems pretty  confident that a heavy batch of showers will spread from southwest to northeast during the morning rush hour.

 

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18z NAM looks interesting in early afternoon hours... yeah prob reaching here... but 18z WED has decent ML Lapse Rates at least (around 6.5C/KM) and decent 0-6km shear of close to 60kts.. with high 0-3km SRH and 1km SRH... CAPE gets up to around 500 or so with MLCAPE 300-400... I would surmise there could be a spin-up or two in the area

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