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Met Winter 2016-17 Banter


dmillz25

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On 3/8/2017 at 1:19 PM, uncle W said:

I got the same almanacs but they are worn out and in pieces...Since 1968 which had a cold January there were many other cold January's...1977 for an example....I have Mr. G's early 1980's almanac and it was predicting another ice age was coming...

I scanned my copy of the 1968 almanac. I think I have the 1961-1973 copies.

The images are copyrighted material by The New York Daily News.

IMG_001a.jpg

IMG_002a.jpg

IMG_003a.jpg

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Just now, Paragon said:

So, it varies according to the barometric pressure at those altitudes? My bad, I thought it was being used to describe pressure differences and locations of high and low pressure at a standardized altitude.

Well, you can think of each height level as an cohesive, undulating surface, with hills and valleys depending on the underlying air density... the air pressure will always be 500 millibars at the 500mb level, no matter how high or low that surface is relative to sea level (in the US alone I believe 500mb heights have been as low as 4,800 meters and as high as 6,020m). On the ground we can look at things like pressure rises and falls to aid in forecasting, but for the rest of the column, it's easier and more practical to examine pressure trends in terms of geopotential heights than actual pressures at fixed altitudes.

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Just now, Juliancolton said:

Well, you can think of each height level as an cohesive, undulating surface, with hills and valleys depending on the underlying air density... the air pressure will always be 500 millibars at the 500mb level, no matter how high or low that surface is relative to sea level (in the US alone I believe 500mb heights have been as low as 4,800 meters and as high as 6,020m). On the ground we can look at things like pressure rises and falls to aid in forecasting, but for the rest of the column, it's easier and more practical to examine pressure trends in terms of geopotential heights than actual pressures at fixed altitudes.

Thanks, you sure do have a way with words!  I had to flip my way of thinking, I was thinking of the altitude as the constant and the pressure as the variable (like how we think of sea level pressures.)  But now I see what we want to do is think of the pressure as the constant and the altitude as the variable.

 

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1 minute ago, bklnwx1 said:

I scanned my copy of the 1968 almanac. I think I have the 1961-1973 copies.

The images are copyrighted material by The New York Daily News.

IMG_001a.jpg

IMG_002a.jpg

IMG_003a.jpg

notice the biggest snowstorms are not from Central Park in the 1890's...1893 and 1894 were measured in lower Manhattan...

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4 minutes ago, uncle W said:

notice the biggest snowstorms are not from Central Park in the 1890's...1893 and 1894 were measured in lower Manhattan...

call me crazy but March 1888 looks like a lot more snow than any of our historic storms of our lifetime......

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14 minutes ago, Paragon said:

Those were the good old days when attaining 20 inches of snow was something truly special, only two storms on that list back then.  Now it happens a few times every decade lol.

 

One idiot didn't measure correctly. The probably had double that.

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12 minutes ago, Paragon said:

call me crazy but March 1888 looks like a lot more snow than any of our historic storms of our lifetime......

it probably was under measured...it looks like 30" in that picture...the story says it snowed on and off from the afternoon of the 13th to the afternoon of the 14th...the city was in such chaos that it looks like the snow wasn't measured...

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2 hours ago, uncle W said:

it probably was under measured...it looks like 30" in that picture...the story says it snowed on and off from the afternoon of the 13th to the afternoon of the 14th...the city was in such chaos that it looks like the snow wasn't measured...

Oh that sucks, but at least New Haven properly measured and they had 44"!  North shore of Queens 32" and North Shore of LI recorded 38" while the Coney Island area recorded 26"

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12 minutes ago, bluewave said:

It's interesting how those 1880's Marches were as colder than the current day January average temperature.

1    30.0

2    30.5

3    30.6

4    32.3

5    32.4

6    32.6

7    32.7

8    33.3

9    33.4

10    34.1

 

1888

1872

1885

1887

1916

1866

1883

1960

1900

1875

Those numbers are almost all colder than our current January average which is around 34 I believe period my educated guess would be Urban Development is the biggest difference . Back then there was no Urban" heat island" effect

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On 3/7/2017 at 4:27 PM, Hailstorm said:

Yes, and the sad thing about this case is that none of them will actually verify for NYC.

Wave #1 is on life support; #2 is DoA; and what about our "hail mary" #3?

Well, I hate to break it to most members in here; but even Upton is dismissing it as a remote threat for NYC.

Take a look at their forecast:

 

Monday
Mostly sunny, with a high near 38.
Monday Night
A 50 percent chance of snow. Mostly cloudy, with a low around 32.
Tuesday
A chance of rain and snow. Mostly cloudy, with a high near 43.
 
 
You can't make this crap up. They have NYC torching/raining/maybe some brief slop upon the onset of this precip, IF this storm ends up even coming close to this area. It's a lose-lose situation for NYC.
 
And look at the GEFS output for Wave #3:
 
gfs-ens_z500a_us_29.png
 
Look at that pulsating SE ridge; all of the cold air is bottled up in Michigan. Just a horrific set up for a snow event if you ask me as all of the cold air is receding into Canada.
 
No wonder PB GBI is no longer posting here.

Hmmmm... 

What a joke. This guy should be banned even if Tuesday doesn't work out.

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People getting overly excited for a storm 4 days out. If Sunday model runs were showing what they showed today then fine. But so much can change in a few days that it could end up being an inland runner giving us all rain. It's nice that a threat is there, but some people are already discussing snow totals and precipitation issues.

 

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People getting overly excited for a storm 4 days out. If Sunday model runs were showing what they showed today then fine. But so much can change in a few days that it could end up being an inland runner giving us all rain. It's nice that a threat is there, but some people are already discussing snow totals and precipitation issues.

 

 

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People getting overly excited for a storm 4 days out. If Sunday model runs were showing what they showed today then fine. But so much can change in a few days that it could end up being an inland runner giving us all rain. It's nice that a threat is there, but some people are already discussing snow totals and precipitation issues.

 

They're getting excited bc they recognize a storm is likely somewhere along the coast as it fits the pattern.

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They're getting excited bc they recognize a storm is likely along the coast as it fits the pattern.

Private message me to tell me when to make the blizzard thread because I'll be 3 for 3 tomorrow if it's not a whiff. If tomorrow is a whiff forget it I don't want to do it you hear me buddy!

 

and take my 5 post per day at least until these two storms are done I promise I'll just mostly banter post and observations.

im calling for 4-8 for tomorrow by the way.

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Private message me to tell me when to make the blizzard thread because I'll be 3 for 3 tomorrow if it's not a whiff. If tomorrow is a whiff forget it I don't want to do it you hear me buddy!

 

and take my 5 post per day at least until these two storms are done I promise I'll just mostly banter post and observations.

im calling for 4-8 for tomorrow by the way.

lol.. You are a hot mess

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Brings me back to the late night crew on bill Evans board I was ltthedog there great group of guys. You just know waxino and Tom are reading this

Wait, that was you?    I was Rjay....lol. Frank is still awesome. I have no idea where Tom went.  

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Oh that sucks, but at least New Haven properly measured and they had 44"!  North shore of Queens 32" and North Shore of LI recorded 38" while the Coney Island area recorded 26"

I think I would be happy with 44".  No doubt they under measured NYC.  With the drifts, how in the world could you establish the mean?  That had to be NYC's deepest snow storm.  Despite knowing how hard it is to snow around here (having witnessed 7 decades of weather) I wonder how we haven't gotten a 40 incher in NYC metro at least once or twice over the last 50 years.

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It's interesting how those 1880's Marches were as colder than the current day January average temperature.

1    30.0

2    30.5

3    30.6

4    32.3

5    32.4

6    32.6

7    32.7

8    33.3

9    33.4

10    34.1

 

1888

1872

1885

1887

1916

1866

1883

1960

1900

1875

Funny how March 1960 is the only relatively recent March that makes that list- and even that was over 50 years ago.  If it had happened back in the 1880s, no telling how much colder it could have been.

 

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I think I would be happy with 44".  No doubt they under measured NYC.  With the drifts, how in the world could you establish the mean?  That had to be NYC's deepest snow storm.  Despite knowing how hard it is to snow around here (having witnessed 7 decades of weather) I wonder how we haven't gotten a 40 incher in NYC metro at least once or twice over the last 50 years.

I'd be interested in finding the liquid equivalents for that storm across our area- since that seems to be the only objectively consistent way to measure snow.

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16 minutes ago, bluewave said:

March has been the only month that we haven't been able to score a top 3 coldest since the 1880's in modern times during DJFM.

December NYC

#1...24.9...1876

#2...25.0...1917

#3...25.9...1989

January

#1...21.7...1918

#2...22.1...1977

#3...23.0...1888

February

#1...19.9...1934

#2...22.7...1885

#3...23.9....2015

March

#1....30.0...1888

#2....30.5...1872

#3....30.6...1885

Wow, I wonder why that is?  Out of curiosity, have any Novembers or Aprils made this list too?

Also it seems like a larger percentage of the cold Marches feature big snowstorms, vs the cold Januaries.  Both February and March actually.

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31 minutes ago, bluewave said:

March has been the only month that we haven't been able to score a top 3 coldest since the 1880's in modern times during DJFM.

December NYC

#1...24.9...1876

#2...25.0...1917

#3...25.9...1989

January

#1...21.7...1918

#2...22.1...1977

#3...23.0...1888

February

#1...19.9...1934

#2...22.7...1885

#3...23.9....2015

March

#1....30.0...1888

#2....30.5...1872

#3....30.6...1885

in recent years the only months with a record monthly minimum is August...50 is the lowest temperature ever record for August set first in 1885...then tied in 1965, 1976, 1982 and 1986...July 1st 1988 was 53 degrees...July 5th 1979 was 53 degrees...One degree above the record of 52 set in 1943...September 1963 hit 40 late in the month...39 is the all time record...October 1976 was 29 two days in a row...the record is 28 set in 1936...The other months have record lows that were not threatened...

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