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Met Winter 2016-17 Banter

dmillz25

By dmillz25,
in New York City Metro

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Hailstorm

Hailstorm

Posted
Posted
48 minutes ago, JerseyWx said:

I hate when we have these snow threats come in multiple waves.

Yes, and the sad thing about this case is that none of them will actually verify for NYC.

Wave #1 is on life support; #2 is DoA; and what about our "hail mary" #3?

Well, I hate to break it to most members in here; but even Upton is dismissing it as a remote threat for NYC.

Take a look at their forecast:

 

Monday
Mostly sunny, with a high near 38.
Monday Night
A 50 percent chance of snow. Mostly cloudy, with a low around 32.
Tuesday
A chance of rain and snow. Mostly cloudy, with a high near 43.
 
 
You can't make this crap up. They have NYC torching/raining/maybe some brief slop upon the onset of this precip, IF this storm ends up even coming close to this area. It's a lose-lose situation for NYC.
 
And look at the GEFS output for Wave #3:
 
gfs-ens_z500a_us_29.png
 
Look at that pulsating SE ridge; all of the cold air is bottled up in Michigan. Just a horrific set up for a snow event if you ask me as all of the cold air is receding into Canada.
 
No wonder PB GBI is no longer posting here.
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Paragon

Paragon

Posted
Posted
1 hour ago, bluewave said:

A March 1993 style deep Gulf phaser has been the only type of storm the 2000's extreme climate hasn't been able to reproduce yet. Could you imagine a repeat of that type of phase so far south taking a benchmark track? That would be one heck of a blizzard right up the East Coast.

Triple phasers are much more common further north.  Didn't the Canadian Maritimes get one in 2004?  I think dumped like 4 feet of snow in Moncton, New Brunswick and parts of Nova Scotia.  Is there a reason why benchmark tracks for such storms are rare, apart from the fact that the storms themselves are rare at our latitude?  Overphasing perhaps?

We need one to be associated with a really strong block to get that kind of track.

 

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Paragon

Paragon

Posted
Posted
4 minutes ago, Hailstorm said:

Yes, and the sad thing about this case is that none of them will actually verify for NYC.

Wave #1 is on life support; #2 is DoA; and what about our "hail mary" #3?

Well, I hate to break it to most members in here; but even Upton is dismissing it as a remote threat for NYC.

Take a look at their forecast:

 

Monday
Mostly sunny, with a high near 38.
Monday Night
A 50 percent chance of snow. Mostly cloudy, with a low around 32.
Tuesday
A chance of rain and snow. Mostly cloudy, with a high near 43.
 
 
You can't make this crap up. They have NYC torching/raining upon the onset of this precip, IF this storm ends up even coming close to this area. It's a lose-lose situation for NYC.
 
And look at the GEFS output for Wave #3:
 
gfs-ens_z500a_us_29.png
 
Look at that pulsating SE ridge; all of the cold air is bottled up in Michigan. Just a horrific set up for a snow event if you ask me as all of the cold air is receding into Canada.
 
No wonder PB GBI is no longer posting here.

It's mid March at that point, rain would be the expected precipitation during the day unless you're at high elevation.

You need a strong coastal with the right track to get good snows this time of year or later.

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Paragon

Paragon

Posted
Posted
1 hour ago, uncle W said:

best March wintry periods for a ten day period...some of these years had a great third week of March...1960 was the best of the lot...1956 was second and 1967 third...1993 and 1958 round out my top five...

March 1956...1958...1960...1967...1978...1984...1992...1993...1996...2005...2015

1956..............................................

dates...max min precip snow depth

16.........33...21...0.90"...6.2"...6"

17.........33...20...0.05"...0.5"...3"

18.........30...21...0.38"...3.8"...7"

19.........26...23...0.78"...7.8".13"

20.........38...23......0........0...13"

21.........48...28......0........0.....8"

22.........50...31......0........0.....6"

23.........48...36......0........0.....1"

24.........43...24...0.11"...1.2"...1"

25.........34...18......0........0.....1"

1958...............................................

13.........46...34......T........T.....0

14.........36...33...0.48"...4.1"...4"

15.........41...35......T........T.....2"

16.........43...35......0........0.....1"

17.........45...34......0........0.....T

18.........42...35......T........T......0

19.........39...34...0.02".....T.....0

20.........35...33...0.90"...4.7"...5"

21.........35...31...0.71"...7.1"..11"

22.........45...34......T........T...10"

1960..................................................

01.........32...21......0........0.....0

02.........36...19......0........0.....0

03.........27...18...0.89" 12.5". 12"

04.........29...19...0.19"...2.0", 15"

05.........33...21...0.01"...0.1". 14"

06.........36...20......0........0....12"

07.........31...17......T......0.2"...8"

08.........30...19...0.01"...0.1"...5"

09.........34...17......0........0.....3"

10.........30...17......0........0.....2"

1967...........................................................

15.........45...29...0.39"...1.8"...2"

16.........32...21...0.14"...0.8"...2"

17.........26...13...0.28"...3.0"...3"

18.........20...10......0........0.....3"

19.........28.....8......0........0.....2"

20.........40...23......0........0.....1"

21.........35...31...0.14"...0.8"...1"

22.........32...29...0.78"...9.0"...9"

23.........35...28......T........T.....6"

24.........44...30......0........0.....3"

1978..........................................................................

01.........32...25......0........0.....3"

02.........32...19......0........0.....3"

03.........29...24...0.64"...5.0"...8"

04.........30...19......0........0.....6"

05.........28...14......0........0.....4"

06.........33...18......0........0.....3"

07.........37...20......0........0.....3"

08.........30...22......T........T.....3"

09.........43...29......T........T.....3"

10.........43...36......0........0.....2"

1984.............................................................................

04.........40...24......0........0.....0

05.........43...33...0.71"...0.3"...0

06.........44...37......0........0.....0

07.........40...24......0........0.....0

08.........30...18...0.10"...1.8"...2"

09.........32...16...0.29"...5.1"...7"

10.........30...13......0........0.....5"

11.........40...19......T........T.....3"

12.........30...16......0........0.....1"

13.........35...24...2.31"...1.4"...1"

1992.........................................................................

14.........40...24......0........0.....0

15.........35...22......0........0.....0

16.........37...17......0........0.....0

17.........50...29......T........T.....0

18.........45...31...0.09".....T.....0

19.........33...31...0.93"...6.2"...3"

20.........45...30......0........0.....6"

21.........39...28......0........0.....T

22.........35...25...0.44"...3.2"...T

23.........38...29......T........T.....3"

1993...............................................................................

10.........40...32...0.60"...0.3"...0

11.........41...30......0........0.....0

12.........42...29......0........0.....0

13.........40...28...2.37" 10.2". 2"

14.........39...17...0.15"...0.4"...8"

15.........33...14......0........0.....7"

16.........45...26......0........0.....4"

17.........47...25...0.75"...0.8"...2"

18.........29...13......T........T.....2"

19.........33...16......0........0.....2"

1996...........................................................................

01.........34...22......0........0.....0

02.........35...29...0.33"...4.6"...4"

03.........35...21...0.01".....T......2"

04.........35...19......0........0.....1"

05.........61...32...0.22".....0.....0

06.........50...34...0.51".....0.....0

07.........34...23...0.81".....T.....0

08.........24...14...0.28"...4.5"...4"

09.........24...11......0........0.....3"

10.........33...16......0........0.....2"

2005...................................................

01.........42...30...0.29"...2.9"...9"

02.........39...28......T........T.....6"

03.........33...23......0........0.....5"

04.........36...23......0........0.....4"

05.........42...27......0........0.....4"

06.........48...31......0........0.....3"

07.........63...43......0........0.....2"

08.........57...18...0.32"...1.5"...1"

09.........31...16......0........0.....1"

10.........34...21......0........0.....T

..........................................................................

2015..............................................

01.........31...24...0.52"...4.8"...15"

02.........39...27......0........0......14"

03.........37...22...0.67"...1.8"...13"

04.........45...35...0.25".....0.....13"

05.........40...19...0.76"...7.5"...19"

06.........27...12......0........0.....19"

07.........38...18......0........0.....18"

08.........49...37......0........0.....16"

09.........54...40...0.01".....0.....13"

10.........53...39...0.46".....0.....11"

Wow 1956 and 1960 were both great.  March 1956 had 4 straight days of snow, and March 1960 had 5 out of 6 days with snow.  When was the last time we had 4 or more straight days of measurable snow, let alone in March?  March 2015 had 3 out of 5 days with snow, so that's the best I can recall.

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bluewave

bluewave

Posted
Posted
39 minutes ago, Paragon said:

Triple phasers are much more common further north.  Didn't the Canadian Maritimes get one in 2004?  I think dumped like 4 feet of snow in Moncton, New Brunswick and parts of Nova Scotia.  Is there a reason why benchmark tracks for such storms are rare, apart from the fact that the storms themselves are rare at our latitude?  Overphasing perhaps?

We need one to be associated with a really strong block to get that kind of track.

 

It's just extremely rare to get such a strong phase over the Gulf of Mexico. Most times phases occur further north like the Cleveland event in Jan 78 and numerous events near New England into the Maritimes. That was one heck of a ridge along the West Coast of NOAM.

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Paragon

Paragon

Posted
Posted
2 hours ago, LongBeachSurfFreak said:

I went to college in Maryland and still the single largest snow storm I have seen was Pd2 down there. (32") They have allot more duds then us but it's not a complete nightmare for snow lovers. 9/10 was epic down there 

I think Baltimore is really good for noreasters, DC seems to be a bit far to the west to catch Miller Bs.  Baltimore had their snowiest month on record in February 2003, and it was a lot more snow than we've gotten here in one month (over 40 inches!)

And if it wasn't for that NWS reassessment, Baltimore would have beaten out Philly in 2009-10 and had over 80"

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Paragon

Paragon

Posted
Posted
3 minutes ago, bluewave said:

It's just extremely rare to get such a strong phase over the Gulf of Mexico. Most times phases occur further north like the Cleveland superbomb in Jan 78 and numerous events near New England into the Maritimes. That was one heck of a ridge along the West Coast of NOAM.

And I think it was forecast a week in advance, which was really good for back in the early 90s!

 

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bluewave

bluewave

Posted
Posted
9 minutes ago, Paragon said:

And I think it was forecast a week in advance, which was really good for back in the early 90s!

 

Yeah, I believe that was one of the first major high profile wins for the upgraded Euro model of that time. But the big surprise that caught forecasters off guard was the rapid intensification over the Gulf with the historic storm surge into the Florida Big Bend.

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Paragon

Paragon

Posted
Posted
4 minutes ago, bluewave said:

Yeah, I believe that was one of the first major high profile wins for the upgraded Euro model of that time. But the big surprise that caught forecasters off guard was the rapid intensification over the Gulf with the historic storm surge into the Florida Big Bend.

They had Cat 3 force wind gusts in the Dry Tortugas if I remember correctly, and one of the interesting things with that storm was the massive snow shield extended up into our area with the low still down in the Gulf!  What kind of snowfall totals would we get today with that kind of storm on a benchmark track and the higher precipitation totals we would see because of warmer SSTs?

I think that storm moved pretty quickly- imagine if it would have retrograded, looped or stalled like the Blizzard of 1888 did or the February 2010 last snowstorm did.

 

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uncle W

uncle W

Posted
Posted
46 minutes ago, Paragon said:

Wow 1956 and 1960 were both great.  March 1956 had 4 straight days of snow, and March 1960 had 5 out of 6 days with snow.  When was the last time we had 4 or more straight days of measurable snow, let alone in March?  March 2015 had 3 out of 5 days with snow, so that's the best I can recall.

the first 15 days of March 1960 had a minimum of 25 or lower...The first 13 days were 21 degrees or colder...the first 17 were 32 or lower...All records that still stand...

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bluewave

bluewave

Posted
Posted
8 minutes ago, uncle W said:

the first 15 days of March 1960 had a minimum of 25 or lower...The first 13 days were 21 degrees or colder...the first 17 were 32 or lower...All records that still stand...

The 60-61 period was an action packed one with Donna in the mix among the great snowstorms.

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uncle W

uncle W

Posted
Posted
1 minute ago, bluewave said:

The 60-61 period was an action packed one with Donna in the mix among the great snowstorms.

yeah from 3/3/1960 to 2/4/1961 NYC got four blizzards, a hurricane and tropical storm...only Dec. 2009 to January 2011 comes close...

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Paragon

Paragon

Posted
Posted
1 minute ago, uncle W said:

yeah from 3/3/1960 to 2/4/1961 NYC got four blizzards, a hurricane and tropical storm...only Dec. 2009 to January 2011 comes close...

Indeed- but you have to extend it to December 2009 to August 2011 to make it comparable, then you can toss in Irene, a record setting rainfall event that also occurred in August AND an earthquake ;-)

 

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Paragon

Paragon

Posted
Posted
15 minutes ago, uncle W said:

the first 15 days of March 1960 had a minimum of 25 or lower...The first 13 days were 21 degrees or colder...the first 17 were 32 or lower...All records that still stand...

March 1960 as a whole was colder than most of our recent DJF have been!

 

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bluewave

bluewave

Posted
Posted
2 minutes ago, uncle W said:

yeah from 3/3/1960 to 2/4/1961 NYC got four blizzards, a hurricane and tropical storm...only Dec. 2009 to January 2011 comes close...

The tide level in Donna was close to the 92 Noreaster, Gloria, and Irene.

 

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uncle W

uncle W

Posted
Posted
1 minute ago, Paragon said:

Indeed- but you have to extend it to December 2009 to August 2011 to make it comparable, then you can toss in Irene, a record setting rainfall event that also occurred in August AND an earthquake ;-)

 

1960 and 1961 had much colder temps along with the snowstorms...from 2010 to 2012 we had four blizzards and two hurricanes...October snowstorm and early November snowstorm...

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uncle W

uncle W

Posted
Posted
2 minutes ago, Paragon said:

March 1960 as a whole was colder than most of our recent DJF have been!

 

it was the first day of school for the 60-61 season...I was in the sixth grade...we even had a plane crash in Staten Island and Brooklyn on 12/16...

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Paragon

Paragon

Posted
Posted
2 minutes ago, uncle W said:

1960 and 1961 had much colder temps along with the snowstorms...from 2010 to 2012 we had four blizzards and two hurricanes...October snowstorm and early November snowstorm...

If there was a storm I wish I could have lived through it's the February 1961 blizzard which actually changed to sleet for a time and still dumped 2 feet of snow at JFK!  Its liquid equivalent came close to matching January 2016, which is the storm of record here.

 

 

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Paragon

Paragon

Posted
Posted
1 minute ago, uncle W said:

it was the first day of school for the 60-61 season...I was in the sixth grade...we even had a plane crash in Staten Island and Brooklyn on 12/16...

How soon was that after the December 1960 blizzard, Unc?  About 10 days I think?

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uncle W

uncle W

Posted
Posted
1 minute ago, Paragon said:

If there was a storm I wish I could have lived through it's the February 1961 blizzard which actually changed to sleet for a time and still dumped 2 feet of snow at JFK!  It's liquid equivalent came close to matching January 2016, which is the storm of record here.

 

 

it came on top of 8-10" of previous snowfalls and two weeks below freezing...

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Paragon

Paragon

Posted
Posted
4 minutes ago, uncle W said:

1960 and 1961 had much colder temps along with the snowstorms...from 2010 to 2012 we had four blizzards and two hurricanes...October snowstorm and early November snowstorm...

We only got 1.5" in the October storm but it was still historic.  The early November event was a lot of fun (if you got your power back in time after Sandy lol) it was the earliest big snowfall I can remember here- 8 inches!  The north shore and LGA actually got less because of being near the water on a north wind.

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